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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  Empty Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:35 am

This is shaping up to be a classic winter storm which could have everything from snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, and even thunder-snow.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  Rb-animated

The current look of water vapor imagery is extremely impressive. Check out the large spin near southern California. That is a cut-off upper level low sending pieces of upper level energy east which eventually phases in with the northern stream energy that comes out of the Pacific. Notice of the east coast of the U.S. the clipper storm that is undergoing cyclogenesis as we speak. This helps set-up the 50/50 confluence I talked about in Update #1 which will prevent our Monday storm from cutting. Well, I should say it could cut but that would force a transfer of energy to the coast. In that case, it would be a Miller-B storm.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

Tonight's 00z EURO model tracks the surface low across southern NJ / DE. Notice it is very strung out and that's because the low tried to cut in western PA. This is a case of a transfer of energy to the coast. It's easy to tell by the direction the isobars are pointing.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

The 00z GFS was more amplified with the surface low, tracking it further north than the EURO. This allows temps along the immediate coast to rise above freezing for a period of time and change snow over to freezing rain or sleet, depending on your location.

What's constant on both these models is that accumulating snow is coming to many parts of the area. Whether it be 2, 4, 10, or more obviously depends on where you live, but I think mostly everyone is going to see accumulating snow. I do not foresee this turning into an all-rain event like I have heard on other weather outlets. In fact, I see this ending up being a predominately cold storm.

Lets look over some key atmospheric levels on the GFS model, since it seems to be one of the warmest pieces of guidance at this point. For the record, I am discounting the UKIE/NAM as I think they are way too amplified with this system. The GGEM I do like but looks a lot like the GFS so lets just focus on the GFS for now.

I will be looking at hour 60 on the 00z GFS, which is when the heaviest precip. is falling over the majority of the area.

850mb temps:

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  Gfs_t850_nyc_11

NYC and north-central NJ are around +1*C. Northern and NW NJ are 0 to -2*C and SNJ is +2 or higher. You want to see 850mb temps. around 0 to -2*C to get the best snowfall. In a case like this were the baroclinic zone is potentially crossing straight through CNJ, NYC should be able to overcome these marginal 850mb temps and seeing mainly frozen precip.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  GfsNE_925_temp_060

NYC is literally right on the line at the 925mb level (solid white line). So between 850mb and 925mb levels, NYC is cutting it very close per the 00z GFS.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  GfsNE_700_vvel_060

700mb vertical velocity, where there is the greatest frontogenesis, is found along the coast. The 700mb was closed off in western NY but opens back up by hour 60. Ideally, we'd like to the the 700mb just south of the area not west of us. When you're dealing with a Miller B it's tough to get these low's vertically stacked.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  GfsNE_sfc_temp_066

Once the surface low is off the coast, it bombs out to 992mb and temps begin to crash. Everyone pretty much turns to snow.

In summary, this storm is far from being figured out right now. This is going to come down to a nowcasting situation. Since some of these temperatures are marginal, whether or not the cold air wins out will depend on the type of dynamics this storm manufacturers. Also, a track slightly further south than currently progged would help a lot of areas in central and southern NJ in seeing more snow. A shift in 20-30 miles in either direction will have a dramatic impact on precip. types. Cut-off's are to remain sharp wherever the temp. gradient sets up. Those just north of the baroclinic zone, where the mild air meets the arctic air, will see snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour with thundersnow.

1st Call Snow Map, Final Map to be Released Sunday morning:

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  1st_call_snow_map_february_2nd

This is another tough forecast. Like I said, if cold air is able to hold itself longer than expected in some area then they'll see more snow and less mixing which would higher amounts. Deviation in storm track, at what point it transfers its energy, and how quickly this storm moves all factor into the equation as well. Ratios have been taken into accounts north and west of NYC, and it's possible some places could see more than 15 inches of snow. This is stuff I will have to iron out with my final map. **Important** I am still monitoring the ice threat. I am unsure how much will accumulate just yet - if any - but the areas within the pink circle have to check back for my final map to see!






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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:57 am

Nice write up Frank. Easy to understand and full of information. Looks like my area Doc's and Cp's are in the jackpot zone this time. Lets hope it goes a tick south to give everyone a nice mantle of white.
Great work as always.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:46 am

WINTER STORM WATCH now in effect for entire NYC metro.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:48 am

Hey, Snow, I see you and Frank are wandering zombies in the wee hours of the morning.

Thanks, Frank for a great write up.

CP, this could be the classic HV storm where if I was in Mahwah, would get screwed by mixing.Really close in NYC.A tick south would clear up the mixing issues there.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:59 am

Yep, just checked NWS and they have Mahwah going over to a mix on Monday.Looks like N of I287 is the all snow line.Very close.Another tick N will not be good.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:15 am

This storm is driving me nuts already just a 30 mile shift south and I'm in the 6-10 range. Ugh
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:28 am

Wow NWS has pretty much in like with you Frank I really hope this can tick south just a tiny bit so I can get in that 10-14, but I will take 8-10, jeeze eastern CT is going to have close to 30-40 inches in spots total from last week. WOW
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:33 am

Jman,you are almost there!!! Just checked NWS for me this AM.Winter storm watch for 8 to 16 inches with .1" of ice.Monday night forecast looks like Barrow, Alaska....-4 with snow,LOL! Funny, this time the cutoffs will be N to S rather than last storm's E to W.NYC Area winter weather at it's best.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:35 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:This storm is driving me nuts already just a 30 mile shift south and I'm in the 6-10 range. Ugh

Skins, you are at the mercy of the North-South Shuffle while I had the East-West shuffle last storm. A lousy 50 miles,LOL!!!!!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:37 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:This storm is driving me nuts already just a 30 mile shift south and I'm in the 6-10 range. Ugh

Skins, you are at the mercy of the North-South Shuffle while I had the East-West shuffle last storm. A lousy 50 miles,LOL!!!!!

How is the road salt situation holding at this point in time? Heard on tv some towns really low, waiting for salt shipments.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:42 am

Good write-up and good map. I'm hoping we keep mixing to a minimum here. Nothing I hate more than enjoying a nice snowstorm then hearing the clicking sound of sleet hitting my window (ok rain hitting my window is worse) because I know the accumulation has pretty much ground to a halt.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:42 am

NWS Binghamton say I can expect 10-14". The Southern Tier of NY hopes you guys do as well or better.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:06 am

Great map and writeup, Frank!! You beat me to the release, but yours is exactly what my 1st guess is going to look like.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:16 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:This storm is driving me nuts already just a 30 mile shift south and I'm in the 6-10 range. Ugh

Skins, you are at the mercy of the North-South Shuffle while I had the East-West shuffle last storm. A lousy 50 miles,LOL!!!!!

How is the road salt situation holding at this point in time? Heard on tv some towns really low, waiting for salt shipments.

 We got  a huge shipment the day after last storm so weds. or Thursday timeframe we are good. Im hoping the a little shift south not much to get into a decent storm we still have at least 6 inches still on the ground here
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:22 am

doc, I know that 10-14 line and franks (honestly did he copy their map, or vice versa, not sure which came out first) is literally like 30 miles maybe north of me maybe 50 tops. Such little change will mean godzilla or just below for me, NYC you would add another 10-12 miles south of me. I see us being cold enough. One question Frank do you think I have to worry about a ice storm and when you say ice storm do u mean a frz event and if so how much would WCS be? I guarentee I will have to drive to work monday morning (yes I know it sounds insane but if we get called in I will have no choice) I know the bee-line will be shutdown, they take no chances as yonkers is the san francisco of NYC area.
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Post by gigs68 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:22 am

Per Amy Freeze 3-6 NYC and LI and said closer to 3 b/c of mixing?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:24 am

And Frank was JK about you copying NWS map, of course they came here and took yours : )
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:25 am

gigs NO ONE in NYC forecasting is going to give big numbers since last storm YET. I do not think mixing will happen not from bronx on north anyways, NYC will be a dividing line but rain? I doubt it in NYC anyways.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:34 am

In this image you can see where the main energy is currently.  It will dive in and phase with some of the energy associated with the ULL centered in the SW CONUS and track somewhere through W Virginia.  To me the current observation is that more of the energy associated with the ULL in the southern stream will in fact come out and interact with the main N piece.  This in turn make a stronger system overall when traverses the Midwest towards the coast making the idea of cutting then transferring plausible.    
Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  <a href=Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  Latest10" />

Of course models cont to shift the soln overnight despite a relatively good consensus yesterday with a track coming off the coast between the Delmarva and the S tip of NJ.   NOPE now the Euro ens, Euro op and CMC all try to cut the storm into Pa then transfer the energy to the coast somewhere off the southern third of NJ.  Miller B.  The GFS however is still more of a strait track but cont to trend further N and it too tracks somewhere off of the Southern 1/3 of the NJ coast.  This of course brings the questions of WAA (warm air advection) into play from say NYC and points south.  If today and tonight cont the northern trend many may be in trouble.  If the north trend has plateaued and we tick back south ever so slightly its game on for everyone.  My map below is my current thinking as of the northern trend to this point.  I "think" we tick back south, as I think the confluence to our north wins out so tomorrow morning totals may shift a bit.  HOWEVER, we are def going to have to watch the mid layers in real time develop as the system approaches and moves off the coast.  

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  <a href=Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  Feb_1s10" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:37 am

sroc thats as far north as you tink it will all be? When you say high ratios, are those factored into your totals? Nice map, slightly less for sothern CT than franks but pretty much the same overall.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:41 am

Not to get off topic but I just realized we have had some type of accumulating snow at least once or twice a week here for all of January, thats pretty impressive if you ask me. If we keep this up we may very well top average especially if this one plays out may happen. Does anyone know what average i for yonkers? Or how I can find out?
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:46 am

@jmanley32 wrote:sroc thats as far north as you tink it will all be? When you say high ratios, are those factored into your totals?  Nice map, slightly less for sothern CT than franks but pretty much the same overall.

Jman I am being what I think is conservative for now. The map indicates ratios in the key. Ratios may be higher than that, but I still think the ceiling for this system is about 15" +/- and inch or so and north of NYC is prob where that falls. Theris still a chance all of these lines shift south again in the morning, but I want 24 more hrs and some of the SR models to look at.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:03 am

well i will keep checking in of course.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:11 am

Nice write up boys. Frank, sroc4 I just came in from outside and it's so cold, windy and dry it's incredible. I can't see how this cold doesn't keep the storm further south. It's hard to believe. I think everything shifts south 50 miles+ and that's not wish casting. I really feel that the storm gets to somewhere near PA and then "feels" the incredibly cold dry air and begins squeezing more south/east or re-develops se of Atlantic City.

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Post by Quietace Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:18 am

When it comes to judging the surface temps with this system. The snow pack and front end will have a effect once the UL warm....and with temps on models only barley going above freezing at the surface south of NYC, especially on the Euro, 1 or 2 degree aid can signify the difference between sleet/FRZ rain and just plain rain for most. I think its a real threat..

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