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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

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Post by WOLVES1 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:35 am

Frank we should see today what the euro does. The gfs may take over as king.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:36 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:And once again, the GFS and EURO highly differ.

Frank, I want to wait until I see the 12Z EURO before we can discuss how much they differ. But I am really interested in tonight's 0Z RGEM.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:45 am

GEM looks like it's staying south through 42......

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:46 am

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015013112/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_7.png

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:46 am

GGEM is still bitchin', everyone calm down. :-)
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:48 am

Yep. DEFINITELY further south of 12z GFS. Looks identical so far to 00z GFS. We'll see if it holds.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:48 am

It's also 4hPa stronger with the high to our north.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:49 am

wrong run of cmc sorry


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:53 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:50 am

error wrong run



Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:53 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:50 am

@jmanley32 wrote:yep over a foot for many, funny NYC and west is jackpot, hmmm saw this last time.

How in the blue H&LL did you get that already? ahahahaha Ima start calling you Speedy


Last edited by rb924119 on Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:56 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:51 am

except for far southern areas : /
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:52 am

opps wait thats 00z
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:52 am

my bad sorry guys, thought it looked exactly the same, you must excuse me have been under the weather.

rb if you can remove the link from your post i already removed the pics, my bad


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:54 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:54 am

Wow! Model mayhem at its finest. GFS and Canadian are worlds apart with the storm starting up in about 24 hours. I guess the EURO will be the tiebreaker.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:55 am

no nutley that was the wrong run, that was 00z, again apologies everyone.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:55 am

Warmest 12z GEM gets:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015013112/gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_9.png

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:56 am

@jmanley32 wrote:my bad sorry guys, thought it looked exactly the same, you must excuse me have been under the weather.

rb if you can remove the link from your post i already removed the pics, my bad

I GOTCHUUUU lmao

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:57 am

ok this is 12z, looks north of 00z but not like gfs, jeeze 985, wow

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 6 Cmc_9810
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:57 am

Here are 850s:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015013112/gem_T850_neus_10.png

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:59 am

ok, wow nice hit, ratios will be higher however mixing issues as qpf to south is nearly 2.5

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 6 12z_cm10
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:01 pm

850 hPa heights/vorticity/winds. You can see that it basically follows the I-81 corridor here, which is TEN TIMES BETTER than GFS Op.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015013112/gem_z850_vort_neus_10.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015013112/gem_z850_vort_neus_11.png

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:01 pm

hour 54-60 is the only time NYC and north needs to wrry, 850s hit as high as +3. then crash to -4.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:ok, wow nice hit, ratios will be higher however mixing issues as qpf to south is nearly 2.5

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 6 12z_cm10

THIS. WHERE'S THE DOTTED LINE???? I GOT A PIN HERE SO I CAN STICK MY FINGER AND BLOOD-MARK IT lmfao

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:03 pm

GGem is still a concern.  At hr 36 on GGEM the LP is further south and and about 6mb weaker than the GFS at the same time frame, but it still strengthens it rapidly and cuts it into Pa.  Then transfers to the coast.  It does so quicker than the GFS but not by much. Some of the snow totals seen above are sleet and ice.  I dont like this one bit. ZThis storm looks to be a mess with sleet ice and slop


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:04 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:03 pm

of course thats also the time of the heaviest precip sigh, now is that warm enough for rain or is that a 6 hr period of frz?
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