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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

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Post by Philliesfan Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:23 am

Frank and Scott: thank you for your dedication and your snow maps. I like both of them but I like Frank's better as I get more snow. And if I can't be in the jackpot I'm pleased that Snowman, Doc and CP are as I always enjoy their conversations.

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Post by Sferra01 Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:25 am

Ace, you think rain is a real threat or this being a mostly snow event for the majority of us?

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Post by Quietace Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:32 am

@Sferra01 wrote:Ace, you think rain is a real threat or this being a mostly snow event for the majority of us?
I think after the initial front end snow, There is a chance for a period of sleet and FRZ Rain. The way the snow pack is and how close Surface temps are to freezing there is a threat of that. But we need to watch models come in again today and see how things trend...

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:33 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Not to get off topic but I just realized we have had some type of accumulating snow at least once or twice a week here for all of January, thats pretty impressive if you ask me.  If we keep this up we may very well top average especially if this one plays out may happen. Does anyone know what average i for yonkers? Or how I can find out?

On NWS southern westcherster is about 28 using the 30 year averages. Those of course are low because they average in the 1980's which is the most snowless decade ever recorded.

NYC 146 year average is 28.5 so Yonkers is probably low 30's, use 31-32 would be right there.
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Post by Sferra01 Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:35 am

Going to bed...will wake up later and come on to see what current trends are.....thanks!!

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Post by Quietace Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:36 am

@Sferra01 wrote:Ace, you think rain is a real threat or this being a mostly snow event for the majority of us?
But i wont say no to a period of rain either if the mid level centers track north enough....That is a chance we cant discard, but that's looking very unlikely north of NYC.

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Post by oldtimer Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:42 am

I see the core of the cold air moving out Temperatures will moderate to 35* here tomorrow I get the idea now about mixing I thought temperatures be about 20* for the duration Where is the PV?

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:43 am

So Ace let me ask you because I'm worried about freezing rain here but it's hard to belueve that with this cold air a more southern track doesn't happen yes I'm being optimistic but geez Its cold, also this is a definitely a Miller b storm
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Post by Quietace Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:51 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So Ace let me ask you because I'm worried about freezing rain here but it's hard to belueve that with this cold air a more southern track doesn't happen yes I'm being optimistic but geez Its cold, also this is a definitely a Miller b storm
Definite possibility the models are undermodeling confluence and this goes further south. Likey, eh, but I guess we will see. Our area along the coast warms up pretty well so I don't think we may have to many issues but we'll have to watch

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Post by Dtone Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:51 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Not to get off topic but I just realized we have had some type of accumulating snow at least once or twice a week here for all of January, thats pretty impressive if you ask me.  If we keep this up we may very well top average especially if this one plays out may happen. Does anyone know what average i for yonkers? Or how I can find out?

NWS just uses the avg form the closest official reporting station. As the crow flies from Yonkers NWS uses Teterboro Airport, but I don't think they keep long term snow records like that so the next is LGA. Westchester County Airport may be closer if your in northern Yonkers but they don't have great snowfall records/avgs that I know of either.

LGA 21.4" to date, normal to date is 12.6" (last yr was 24.5" to date so we are not far off from last yr pace)


http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:19 am

Great write up guys and today's 6Z and 12 Z runs will hopefully clarify things. I do believe that we tick south as the storm approaches. One thing I know is that the models have had a tough time with the cold air being displaced and this will hold rue since the snow pack s about 10" plus for the area which will only aid us.Have to remember we have a the stout confluence in SE Canada could the models be underestimating it? We shall see.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:29 am

Got a chance to look over some things again this morning and I'm actually a little more confident in a south trend today. Now that Fridays clipper is out of the way, I can see it strengthening in northern New England and feeling the block in place over Greenland. Once it retrogrades west, it's going to setup over SE Canada. Menwhile, the PV seems to be sinking further south than what some models are showing thanks to the strong -EPO.

Look for a south trend today. Feeling it.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:40 am

The unNAMed model trended south. 6-9 inches for NYC. It transferred energy to the coast much quicker.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:42 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The unNAMed model trended south. 6-9 inches for NYC. It transferred energy to the coast much quicker.

lol this comment

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:44 am

Ok, here's my first call. There is an ice threat for central-eastern PA and into central NJ, but right now I feel it's not going to be major ice, and so it was left off. That said, maybe up to a tenth of an inch will be possible for some locations. If I feel that chances increase for this, I will add it to my final map. Here goes:

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 2 Feb1-210

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:44 am

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 2 2ag8dtv

850mb not as far north as previous runs. Mix line gets to NYC instead of just north of it. Good run. Let's watch the GFS come in colder now.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:46 am

@rb924119 wrote:Ok, here's my first call. There is an ice threat for central-eastern PA and into central NJ, but right now I feel it's not going to be major ice, and so it was left off. That said, maybe up to a tenth of an inch will be possible for some locations. If I feel that chances increase for this, I will add it to my final map. Here goes:

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 2 Feb1-210

Nice map. I guess you're expecting the warmer air to win out as far north as SW CT. I just feel with the upper air features we have in place, I can't see this being a predominately warm storm. We'll see how the trends go today.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:48 am

It's 16 degrees right now. Models will not sense the low level cold till late. Remember the last ice storm that no one really predicted but should have because temps leading up to the storm were frigid? Not saying ice storm, just speaking about low level cold in general.

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Post by devsman Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:50 am

I'll take rain...I'll take snow...but please god no freezing rain. There is no getting around in freezing rain. I hope your right Frank and this trends south.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:50 am

I hoping for that south trend frank I remember last year same issue models underestimated the PV until storm was close I think it will trend south as well and if so their will be more updated maps lol
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:52 am

Thanks Frank. Yeah, the only reason is that I feel with the mid-level trough and intensifying lower-level lows on top of us or west of us, that will allow a surge of warmer air to penetrate a little further north. I feel like I've seen that happen more often than not. And, for whatever it's worth, the SREFs torch pretty much everybody south of the NY/PA state border >_<

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:53 am

when is the next gfs and euro model runs please
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Post by Dtone Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:55 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:It's 16 degrees right now. Models will not sense the low level cold till late. Remember the last ice storm that no one really predicted but should have because temps leading up to the storm were frigid? Not saying ice storm, just speaking about low level cold in general.

I been banking on the underestimation of how stubborn the cold air can be.

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Post by RJB8525 Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:56 am

006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-312315-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0003.150202T0000Z-150202T2300Z/
HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
949 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...METROPOLITAN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY
AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...ALONG WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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Post by jimv45 Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:59 am

frank I agree I think this thing goes south more then the models are saying there might be some mixing around NY City but I think from south to north I see a 6-14 inch storm coming! Have question for Hudson valley folks does anybody see a chance a Blizzard watch could be posted with temps in the teen and heavy snow the winds not sure about how bad they will be no big deal looks like a rough one coming!

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