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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:25 pm

Frank radar is down in most areas today lol, response to your earlier post, mine was sarcasm too, anyways I cannot believe the sref have less than a 50% chance of 1 inch of snow for all coastal areas, do you think thats possible? I am unhappy as the next but what good is complaining its not going to change anything, maybe we will get surprised, maybe not. As stated mother nature is in control, and any given season really cannot be forecasted 100% frank, sroc rb and all the others keep it up, you do the best you possibly can and i always come here first, rarely listen to any media.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:26 pm

aiannone wrote:Uhh oh....
Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 12 Stormt12

I learned how to ice skate last year

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:26 pm

holy crap! Thats not good at all, that better not get any higher!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:27 pm

I do not recall seeing dark blue on that map in a loooong time. Sheesh even .2 for city area, NOT GOOD
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:30 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Syos you were one of the people talking yesterday about going over 40 inches for the season with Mondays snow which if my math is correct would mean you were predicting over 13 inches from this storm for you.

Look within my friend.

2 things.

1. I said if the storm forecast from yesterday which was " on a railroad track and easy to forecast" verified I could get to 40 as a total for the year. It wasn't my prediction just look at my posts.

2. Who exactly did I attack? I'm expressing frustration at the forecasts looking like they will bust again. Yet while people forecast and post maps of nice amounts anyone who criticizes it or questions it gets bullied on here. We make fun of people like Amy Freeze who is only forecasting 3 to 6" when she'll probably be more accurate than most.

Ban me if you guys want. You're all too sensitive. There is no reason why I or anyone else cannot dissect and critique a forecast's inaccuracy in a respectful manner. I won't be bullied. Nor am I being rude.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:33 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
Philliesfan wrote:Frank and Scott: thank you for your dedication and your snow maps. I like both of them but I like Frank's better as I get more snow. And if I can't be in the jackpot I'm pleased that Snowman, Doc and CP are as I always enjoy their conversations.

Thank you for your kind words. I would like to see us all hit the JACKPOT with one of these storm before the winters over. I do appreciate you wanting us N&W guys getting a shot at some decent snowfall totals though.

Hey Philliiesfan that you for the kind words. Not sure how I missed them earlier. Thanks again.


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:33 pm

Your asking us to temper our enthusiasm. Easier said then done. And it's probably never going to happen in my lifetime. I like this too much. I also don't like when people tell me or others what to do. Rolling Eyes

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:34 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Syos you were one of the people talking yesterday about going over 40 inches for the season with Mondays snow which if my math is correct would mean you were predicting over 13 inches from this storm for you.

Look within my friend.

2 things.

1.  I said if the storm forecast from yesterday which was " on a railroad track and easy to forecast" verified I could get to 40 as a total for the year.  It wasn't my prediction just look at my posts.

2.  Who exactly did I attack?  I'm expressing frustration at the forecasts looking like they will bust again.  Yet while people forecast and post maps of nice amounts anyone who criticizes it or questions it gets bullied on here.  We make fun of people like Amy Freeze who is only forecasting 3 to 6" when she'll probably be more accurate than most.

Ban me if you guys want.  You're all too sensitive.  There is no reason why I or anyone else cannot dissect and critique a forecast's inaccuracy in a respectful manner.   I won't be bullied.  Nor am I being rude.

Lets switch this to the banter thread Syos. I'm certainly no stranger there, nor are you.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:37 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:That's about as bad as you can get for snow lovers:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21850NE_15z/f48.gif

So a cutter?  when yesterday It was completely taken off the board as a possibility!!!

The primary track for the 850/700/500 hPa lows was never south of us; they were always going to be west of us. The uncertainty was in exactly HOW STRONG they would get. Because they were remaining weaker with less interaction/phasing at first, we were seeing colder solutions and a further south track of the SURFACE low. Now that we are seeing stronger scenarios play out in the mid-levels, the warm air is being drawn further north simultaneously with the surface low being "sucked" further westward by synoptic-scale processes. That's why things changed.

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:38 pm

I knew yesterday that we were skating (pardon the pun) a thin line in most of central jersey between snow and more of a mixed bag. The Low just seemed too far north to me even on yesterdays models. Left no margin for error. But for some the storm may actually be becoming more of a problem because if we get a prolonged period of freezing rain in some areas, that will create far more havoc then 4 or 5 inches of snow.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:39 pm

BTW the 18z NAM is above 0*C now almost to the NY/PA state border. Pretty sure this is going to be game over for big snows south of there. Oh well; can't do anything about it. Might as well enjoy the now-cast.

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:42 pm

SO WHERE IS MY WINTER STORM WATCH?
Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 12 Usa_as12

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:44 pm

aiannone wrote:SO WHERE IS MY WINTER STORM WATCH?
Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 12 Usa_as12

Alex the lone wolf singing praise..lol.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Pauledangerously Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:44 pm

Forgive my wx newbness but if im reading that right thats a quater inch of ice for NYC and its immediate surrounding area? Cause if it is that's pretty frickin scary if it is.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:45 pm

I was just put into a warning for 8-12". I think we'll be lucky to see the low end of that at this rate. You never know, though.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:46 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:SO WHERE IS MY WINTER STORM WATCH?
Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 12 Usa_as12

Alex the lone wolf singing praise..lol.  

Where are those pitchforks and torches?????!!! GET HIMMMM!!!!!!!! lmfao jk

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:46 pm

billg, you sure are right, if this keeps with the warm air and cold surface (no way it warms up enough before then its really cold and still windy) then we could be looking at a major ice storm (i know people say it doesn't happen in NYC) but here in yonkers this could be devastating if we got ice over .25 (even that or under will still cause travel issues galore but power will not be a big issue), also Frank just curious since this storm is coming in stronger and isobars look pretty tight for a time, is wind possibly going to be a issue compacted with the ice or is this not a issue? Wind would just add insult to injury. This will be my one and only time asking lol, just remember to let us know if it does become a issue.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:46 pm

Pauledangerously wrote:Forgive my wx newbness but if im reading that right thats a quater inch of ice for NYC and its immediate surrounding area? Cause if it is that's pretty frickin scary if it is.

It is scary. And temps are dropping into the single digits Monday night. So if we do see rain or freezing rain it woukd make Tuesday morning treacherous

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:51 pm

At this rate it seems like most of NJ/NYC/LI may see very little snow maybe 1-3" to freezing rain/sleet to rain.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:51 pm

I guess while we are cursing the models, that ones that 24 hours ago were showing more snow, less mix, we should keep in mind the possibility that those same models could shift in a different direction again in the next 24 hours.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:51 pm

When would the ice look to come Frank? before monday rush or after?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:52 pm

NJ, by my calculations NYC sees 6-8 snow and .2+ of frz verbatim on nws as total qpf is around 1.0, doesnt look like a solid change to rain, very dangerous situation possibly setting up.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:56 pm

I also think that when people see snow totals get lowered in favor of "a change to sleet, freezing rain and rain" they let their guard down a bit, thinking 'oh this isn't a big deal anymore,' and maybe miss that middle one: "freezing rain." Which can be a mistake, because if the roads and sidewalks are a skating rink, (not to speak of power line issues) it's a major problem.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:58 pm

Watches and warnings are up

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 12 Usnj

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:58 pm

Just remember we saw huge totals under 24hrs before the last storm and how well did that work out for people. Point is until its over, it aint over. I certainly did not hear no fat lady.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:59 pm

For those in a watch...

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE NEW YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN
AREAS...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NEW YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN AREAS AND NORTHWESTERN
LONG ISLAND. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW
YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:00 pm

Those in a warning

.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* SNOWFALL RATES...OCCASIONALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...F

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