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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:36 pm

NWS in line with EPAWA map above for me. 6-14 inches where I am.

I'm going to check in when nowcast comes.These models are ridiculous already.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:37 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WSW now for Orange county, 10-14 inches predicted.

I don't buy it for a second, with all the WAA predicted those totals will never verfiy.

8 inches if we're lucky and a lot of sleet and freezing rain to follow.

That GFS I saw here before CP, we'll be lucky to get 3 or 4 then slop, then an iceberg.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:38 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WSW now for Orange county, 10-14 inches predicted.

I don't buy it for a second, with all the WAA predicted those totals will never verfiy.

8 inches if we're lucky and a lot of sleet and freezing rain to follow.

That GFS I saw here before CP, we'll be lucky to get 3 or 4 then slop, then an iceberg.

8 inches top Doc including backend, if we're lucky. I'd say 4-6 now.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:39 pm

At this point, I'll sign Franks form for that right now.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:39 pm

moderate to heavy ice lasts in westchester and further north from 42 to 48 on the unamed model, yikes
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:41 pm

jmanley32 wrote:moderate to heavy ice lasts in westchester and further north from 42 to 48 on the unamed model, yikes

Oh,no, let's not even go there with that ice.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:43 pm

just stating what I am seeing doc, not a forcaster, you should all be greatful lol, EPAWA surprisingly has higher icing for NYC than me, heh thats funny goes opposite what you said NJ!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:just stating what I am seeing doc, not a forcaster, you should all be greatful lol, EPAWA surprisingly has higher icing for NYC than me, heh thats funny goes opposite what you said NJ!

I know, Jman,hoping no ice at all. Would rather plain rain than that.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:53 pm

Unfort I think ice accretion is close to being a foregone conclusion for many.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:54 pm

18z rgem now has mix all the way up through Orange County and plain rain for south of 287 and East also. still gives a solid 6 inch front end snow for northern New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley to as high as 10 inches in extreme northwest jersey and Orange County
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:just stating what I am seeing doc, not a forcaster, you should all be greatful lol, EPAWA surprisingly has higher icing for NYC than me, heh thats funny goes opposite what you said NJ!

Mark my words, buddy. Winter Weather Advisory, my least favorite weather term in the history of anything weather, will be issued for NYC. And my heart will break.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:55 pm

Holy crap, IF this were to come to fruitatin this would likely go down in hx books, maybe I am exagerating since its the unamed model but stil dayum, that has NJ in 1-1.25 frz thats insane and terrible, even me its .5-.75, its going to be a edgy nowcast, and my fear is my boss regardless of conditions will trell me to be in because in NYC the ice isnt all that bad. The only saving grace here for roads is maybe that we have snow first, but powerlines would suffer greatly in conditions like this, agai9n just writing what i am seeing, you know the unamed model was dead wrong last time for nyc so it couldd def be wrong this time. However I am much more concerned with ice than snow in terms of danger.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 14 Holy_c10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:58 pm

sroc unfortunate? It's a foregone thing? Foregone means no longer a issue, so your thinking no ice?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:00 pm

well what happens happens soul, if the warm holds and goes above a icing issue then yes, and maybe even no WWA, but I can see southern wc being extended in the WSW.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap, IF this were to come to fruitatin this would likely go down in hx books, maybe I am exagerating since its the unamed model but stil dayum, that has NJ in 1-1.25 frz thats insane and terrible, even me its .5-.75, its going to be a edgy nowcast, and my fear is my boss regardless of conditions will trell me to be in because in NYC the ice isnt all that bad.  The only saving grace here for roads is maybe that we have snow first, but powerlines would suffer greatly in conditions like this, agai9n just writing what i am seeing, you know the unamed model was dead wrong last time for nyc so it couldd def be wrong this time.  However I am much more concerned with ice than snow in terms of danger.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 14 Holy_c10
Thay shows just snow and rain where I live, thank lawwwd
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:04 pm

This shows snow/sleet for me.I'm OK with that.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:05 pm

yo-u look to be on the cusp of some light frz maybe but again this is the you know who model, i wish other models split up the precip so we did t have to rely on this pos.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:07 pm

Agreed, Jman, won't even say a word!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:10 pm

You know I just realized on that map, I am almost primarity a ice event, I may have no choice but to stay home monday, well there goes my possible promotion lol, out sick friday after interview and off again monday, i will do all i can to drive in but ice, no way.
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Post by devsman Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:dev what happened in 1994, wikipedia?

20 years ago...93-94 winter. Don't have perfect memory of exactly what happened but I remember it was one of the coldest winters but all the storms would start as snow, change to freezing rain and just rain then a flash freeze would occur at the end of the storm so an inch of snow would hit Long Island and everything would turn to ice. I was 18 at the time and still played ice hockey. I remember skating on the grass field at my park after storms. This seemed to happen with every storm. Pattern as I recall lasted all winter.
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Post by Taffy Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:11 pm

...Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...

* locations...the New York City and New Jersey metropolitan areas...Long Island...and southeastern coastal Connecticut.

* Hazard types...snow...sleet...freezing rain and rain.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches...with a tenth to a quarter inch of ice across northern portions of the New York City and New Jersey metropolitan areas and northwestern Long Island. Snow accumulation of 3 to 6 inches and a few hundredths of an inch of ice across southern portions of the New York City and New Jersey metropolitan areas and southeastern portions of Long Island and coastal Connecticut.

* Winds...northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Temperatures...in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing...late Sunday night through Monday.

* Impacts...hazardous travel due to reduced visibility and significant snow...sleet and ice accumulations.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is my forecast according to Weather Underground. At this point my head is spinning. Seriously.
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Post by Dtone Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:14 pm

Quarter inch ice for northern parts of NYC, NW LI and NE NJ ugh.

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS, THE NEW YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN
AREAS, LONG ISLAND, AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES, SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS, SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NEW YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN AREAS AND NORTHWESTERN
LONG ISLAND. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW
YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.

* WINDS, NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES, IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES, ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING, LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

* IMPACTS, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET AND ICE


Last edited by Dtone on Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:15 pm

Yes Taffy currently NYC and southern WC, and parts of NJ are still in WSW, soul believes it will be a WWA, im not so sure as a ice storm will still warrent a WSW, but for NYC ice storm is hard to happen but unamed model has it so we will see, WWA is not out of the question if this pushes at all north it all rain, no advisories at all.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:16 pm

dtone and that could be conservative, if above posted maps are right. NYC may steer clear but we may not, how far north in the bx are u?
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Post by Dtone Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:18 pm

if they stick close to the current forecast then I believe they will issue a winter storm warning for NYC. The snowfall forecast is still around the 6 inch threshold for winter storm warning. Even if snowfall is a little under 6 inches if it is accompanied with ice they will still issue a winter storm warning anyway because of the two combined

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:sroc unfortunate? It's a foregone thing? Foregone means no longer a issue, so your thinking no ice?

Jman foregone means its inevitable, and thats unfortunate:  Not no longer an issue.

foregone conclusion
n
1. an inevitable result or conclusion

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by jimv45 Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:21 pm

Doc cp relax 10 to 14 mix possible for a time north of 84 should do good.

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