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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:55 pm

Hmmm.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Ima lose my mind, Frank lmao

I have a good idea of what my final map will look like actually. I'm quite happy with this storm even though it had more potential. But tracking it is going to be fun Very Happy Wink

**IF** these trends continue, I may just leave my first call alone and just add the ice in. I think we could have a decent shot at more than a foot if we stay snow.

I've learned that 1st calls mean you have a general understanding of which areas will get hit the hardest and a final call is just about tweaking it

Touche', my friend. I have a couple of friends who work for the Albany, NY WFO and the one (whom I greatly respect) was busting on me saying that I jinxed it by putting the big totals out so soon, and stuff, because I posted my map on my fb as well. I said to him, "Hey man, that's what was showing up. Gotta put the first call out at least 24-30 hours ahead of time. Can't be waiting until the last minute. That's the true test of skill: How much lead time can you provide with an accurate forecast? At least that's how I look at it. Besides, it was only the first call, and it's better to have people know what could happen versus surprising them just hours before the event begins."

I was like, of ALL the people, HE should be understanding of that lmao You know?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:56 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Gfs may have initialized too far north as well. Think about this for a sec...we have a strong -EPO as well.

Wouldn't that favor the western ridge remaining strong, then, instead of collapsing?

The western ridge is dependent on tropical forcing and whether or not there's an Aleutian trough tracking into the Pac. NW.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:57 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Gfs may have initialized too far north as well. Think about this for a sec...we have a strong -EPO as well.

Wouldn't that favor the western ridge remaining strong, then, instead of collapsing?

The western ridge is dependent on tropical forcing and whether or not there's an Aleutian trough tracking into the Pac. NW.

Understood. So then what does the -EPO do? I thought that was indicative of SST anomalies in the northeastern Pacific?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:57 pm

I told people in the office 8-12 for Hackettstown, NJ and that was back on Thursday. 6-10 is probably a better call there but it's still around the vicinity. Good enough Smile

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:00 pm

And I just realized that I mis-read those maps wrong that you posted.....thought the 32 line was 850 freezing. I never even saw the 0*C line hiding in there ahaha That literally cuts through my property, but I think with the elevation we might escape a changeover on that run.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:00 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Gfs may have initialized too far north as well. Think about this for a sec...we have a strong -EPO as well.

Wouldn't that favor the western ridge remaining strong, then, instead of collapsing?

The western ridge is dependent on tropical forcing and whether or not there's an Aleutian trough tracking into the Pac. NW.

Understood. So then what does the -EPO do? I thought that was indicative of SST anomalies in the northeastern Pacific?

A -EPO is mostly responsible for ushering arctic air masses into the eastern CONUS. The ridging over Alaska at times extends into the Arctic. As it does so the AO turns negative and the polar air is forced south (usually see PV displacement here). This is very apparent since temps this weekend have been much below normal and temps next week will be as well. Near 0 degrees in NYC Monday night. In other words, a -EPO/+PNA brings about what I like to call Pacific blocking.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I told people in the office 8-12 for Hackettstown, NJ and that was back on Thursday. 6-10 is probably a better call there but it's still around the vicinity. Good enough Smile

Speaking of Hackettstown, would you be interested in a meteorology job? There's a private forecasting company, WeatherWorks that is based downtown. I'm actually doing consulting work for them through March. Idk what kind of qualifications you have and that they look for, but you might have a solid shot at getting interviewed if they open a position up. It's a small company, but it's certainly local for you, and it's what you love.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Gfs may have initialized too far north as well. Think about this for a sec...we have a strong -EPO as well.

Wouldn't that favor the western ridge remaining strong, then, instead of collapsing?

The western ridge is dependent on tropical forcing and whether or not there's an Aleutian trough tracking into the Pac. NW.

Understood. So then what does the -EPO do? I thought that was indicative of SST anomalies in the northeastern Pacific?

A -EPO is mostly responsible for ushering arctic air masses into the eastern CONUS. The ridging over Alaska at times extends into the Arctic. As it does so the AO turns negative and the polar air is forced south (usually see PV displacement here). This is very apparent since temps this weekend have been much below normal and temps next week will be as well. Near 0 degrees in NYC Monday night. In other words, a -EPO/+PNA brings about what I like to call Pacific blocking.

OHHHHHHHHH so it's like the Atlantic's NAO, essentially. Higher heights north of lower heights=-phase and amplified eastern Pacific flow, lower heights north of higher heights=+phase and more zonal eastern Pacific flow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:05 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I told people in the office 8-12 for Hackettstown, NJ and that was back on Thursday. 6-10 is probably a better call there but it's still around the vicinity. Good enough Smile

Speaking of Hackettstown, would you be interested in a meteorology job? There's a private forecasting company, WeatherWorks that is based downtown. I'm actually doing consulting work for them through March. Idk what kind of qualifications you have and that they look for, but you might have a solid shot at getting interviewed if they open a position up. It's a small company, but it's certainly local for you, and it's what you love.

I've heard of them before. Handle a lot of the school closings or decision makings, right? I actually don't have any background in Meteorology. Have not even taken a single class on it. Doubt they would be interested in me. Really appreciate the looking out though

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:06 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Gfs may have initialized too far north as well. Think about this for a sec...we have a strong -EPO as well.

Wouldn't that favor the western ridge remaining strong, then, instead of collapsing?

The western ridge is dependent on tropical forcing and whether or not there's an Aleutian trough tracking into the Pac. NW.

Understood. So then what does the -EPO do? I thought that was indicative of SST anomalies in the northeastern Pacific?

A -EPO is mostly responsible for ushering arctic air masses into the eastern CONUS. The ridging over Alaska at times extends into the Arctic. As it does so the AO turns negative and the polar air is forced south (usually see PV displacement here). This is very apparent since temps this weekend have been much below normal and temps next week will be as well. Near 0 degrees in NYC Monday night. In other words, a -EPO/+PNA brings about what I like to call Pacific blocking.

OHHHHHHHHH so it's like the Atlantic's NAO, essentially. Higher heights north of lower heights=-phase and amplified eastern Pacific flow, lower heights north of higher heights=+phase and more zonal eastern Pacific flow.

Correct. EPO was essential to our winter pattern last year with all those high ratio northern stream driven events.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:10 pm

Map with ratios

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 20 Post-910-0-57965400-1422763851.gif.pagespeed.ce.Ld-ZIqladM

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I told people in the office 8-12 for Hackettstown, NJ and that was back on Thursday. 6-10 is probably a better call there but it's still around the vicinity. Good enough Smile

Speaking of Hackettstown, would you be interested in a meteorology job? There's a private forecasting company, WeatherWorks that is based downtown. I'm actually doing consulting work for them through March. Idk what kind of qualifications you have and that they look for, but you might have a solid shot at getting interviewed if they open a position up. It's a small company, but it's certainly local for you, and it's what you love.

I've heard of them before. Handle a lot of the school closings or decision makings, right? I actually don't have any background in Meteorology. Have not even taken a single class on it. Doubt they would be interested in me. Really appreciate the looking out though

Idk about the school closings and such, but I do know that their focus is on winter weather. They do a ton of business with snow plow businesses, grounds keepers and other similar-type companies, I do know that. And yeah, ok; I guarantee you know AT LEAST as much as I do, and no joke probably more. You would probably do fine if you applied. You'll never know if you don't try :p But yeah man, any time! Figured I'd send the shoutout and let you know lol

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:12 pm

Somehow, some way, I'm in the 12-14" zone lol O.K. ahahaha

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Post by Nyi1058 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I told people in the office 8-12 for Hackettstown, NJ and that was back on Thursday. 6-10 is probably a better call there but it's still around the vicinity. Good enough Smile

Speaking of Hackettstown, would you be interested in a meteorology job? There's a private forecasting company, WeatherWorks that is based downtown. I'm actually doing consulting work for them through March. Idk what kind of qualifications you have and that they look for, but you might have a solid shot at getting interviewed if they open a position up. It's a small company, but it's certainly local for you, and it's what you love.

I've heard of them before. Handle a lot of the school closings or decision makings, right? I actually don't have any background in Meteorology. Have not even taken a single class on it. Doubt they would be interested in me. Really appreciate the looking out though
really ? You don't have any background ? I find that amazing . Been following this forum and the accuchat for years . You really should consider it . Much like everybody else that is here . I constantly feel like a genius because I tell everybody how much snow we r getting ect ect . And people always ask me how do I know . And I tell about this place .

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:16 pm

Like right now, they have me verifying snow and ice totals for their clients in MN and SD. I have to go through all the METARs, RADAR, CoCo/COoP observations, analyze soundings and stuff to try and Q-C the totals as best I can. I put reports together and then they get sent to their clients to be used in profit/expense assessments, in court if a lawsuit is filed for improper charges. It's cool. Maybe, if you're interested, keep an eye next fall. I'm almost positive they hire new people for every winter, from November 1st-March 31st.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:17 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I told people in the office 8-12 for Hackettstown, NJ and that was back on Thursday. 6-10 is probably a better call there but it's still around the vicinity. Good enough Smile

Speaking of Hackettstown, would you be interested in a meteorology job? There's a private forecasting company, WeatherWorks that is based downtown. I'm actually doing consulting work for them through March. Idk what kind of qualifications you have and that they look for, but you might have a solid shot at getting interviewed if they open a position up. It's a small company, but it's certainly local for you, and it's what you love.

I've heard of them before. Handle a lot of the school closings or decision makings, right? I actually don't have any background in Meteorology. Have not even taken a single class on it. Doubt they would be interested in me. Really appreciate the looking out though

Idk about the school closings and such, but I do know that their focus is on winter weather. They do a ton of business with snow plow businesses, grounds keepers and other similar-type companies, I do know that. And yeah, ok; I guarantee you know AT LEAST as much as I do, and no joke probably more. You would probably do fine if you applied. You'll never know if you don't try :p But yeah man, any time! Figured I'd send the shoutout and let you know lol

All they would see on my resume is a bunch of supply chain jobs. I'll PM you my email and we can talk about it more, but if they really wanted someone they would go for someone who has a degree I would think. But hey, never know.

GGEM starting soon.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:18 pm

@Nyi1058 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I told people in the office 8-12 for Hackettstown, NJ and that was back on Thursday. 6-10 is probably a better call there but it's still around the vicinity. Good enough Smile

Speaking of Hackettstown, would you be interested in a meteorology job? There's a private forecasting company, WeatherWorks that is based downtown. I'm actually doing consulting work for them through March. Idk what kind of qualifications you have and that they look for, but you might have a solid shot at getting interviewed if they open a position up. It's a small company, but it's certainly local for you, and it's what you love.

I've heard of them before. Handle a lot of the school closings or decision makings, right? I actually don't have any background in Meteorology. Have not even taken a single class on it. Doubt they would be interested in me. Really appreciate the looking out though
really ? You don't have any background ? I find that amazing . Been following this forum and the accuchat for years . You really should consider it . Much like everybody else that is here . I constantly feel like a genius because I tell everybody how much snow we r getting ect ect . And people always ask me how do I know . And I tell about this place .

i'm with you, man, I declare shenanigans told ya

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:19 pm

@Nyi1058 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I told people in the office 8-12 for Hackettstown, NJ and that was back on Thursday. 6-10 is probably a better call there but it's still around the vicinity. Good enough Smile

Speaking of Hackettstown, would you be interested in a meteorology job? There's a private forecasting company, WeatherWorks that is based downtown. I'm actually doing consulting work for them through March. Idk what kind of qualifications you have and that they look for, but you might have a solid shot at getting interviewed if they open a position up. It's a small company, but it's certainly local for you, and it's what you love.

I've heard of them before. Handle a lot of the school closings or decision makings, right? I actually don't have any background in Meteorology. Have not even taken a single class on it. Doubt they would be interested in me. Really appreciate the looking out though
really ? You don't have any background ? I find that amazing . Been following this forum and the accuchat for years . You really should consider it . Much like everybody else that is here . I constantly feel like a genius because I tell everybody how much snow we r getting ect ect . And people always ask me how do I know . And I tell about this place .

I'm glad you're learning some things. Whenever someone has a Meteorological question I do my best to answer. I also try to make my writeups easy to understand.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:22 pm

Haha, well I was northern NJ forecaster for EPAWA for a year. Pretty sweet online job. I left voluntarily because creating a forecast every night to put out in the morning started getting in the way of school. Plus, clients started texting / emailing me non stop as if I was there personal Met

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Post by Artechmetals Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:24 pm

Frank , when on Monday will storm end
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:26 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:Frank , when on Monday will storm end

Sometime between 2-4 pm. Still trying to figure out if there will be a backend.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:26 pm

gfs agrees 0.1-0.5 frz, more snow, hoping this in right direction but this still look like a big ice threat around where ct, nj and nj meet and pioints around.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 20 Gfs_fr10
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Post by Artechmetals Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:26 pm

Thanks !
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:27 pm

Looking at the hires GFS map, there is a noticeable south shift just like the NAM, maybe 10 miles.
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