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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:09 am

Jim- no blizzard watches with this one.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:11 am

GEWWW!!!!!! Nice for those north and west of the city, but this could be nasty (bottom right panel; accumulated freezing rain in inches):

http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/ne.namacctype12-29.gif

NOT saying this verifies, but *if it were to*...

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:14 am

I said this in the other thread Tha the models especially the gfs under does under forecasts the cold it is such a deep layer and thick cold it will win this time Syo made mention as well that as we get closer ticks south will emerge. R/S line is ttn - Trenton and south my call

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:15 am

NAM sniffing it out!!

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Post by Math23x7 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:19 am

12Z RGEM has mixing entering NYC at the end of its run at hr 48.

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Post by RJB8525 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:19 am

So far we got north of NYC jackpot and question remains how much ice/sleet does the city get correct? Most tv mets last night except Lee downplayed the mixing like it wasn't an option lol..they might change that attitude today
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:21 am

Here's the actual uNAMed snow map:

http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend.png

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:24 am

rgem has mix line making it up to Newark due east through si and southern half of li at 7 am Monday. if it would continue looks like mix line would expand through city and all of li however by 7am Monday most places have 10 hours of snow with 6 of hours mod to heavy. an easy 6 to 10 " for all of nyc and nnj and most of li. plus precip looks to be diminishing as this time
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:27 am

When are other model runs like Euro and GFS. I'm curious to see if they hint at a south trend today
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:27 am

GFS has started......let's go

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:27 am

unless models shift sign north today nyc will see at least 6" of snow. will it mix I think yes but by that time precip should be much lighter. then we'll see about back end snow. not sold on that yet.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:39 am

12z GFS 4 hPa stronger at the surface through 24 than 00z.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:40 am

Through 30, slightly north and west of 00z.

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:41 am

Waiting to see if i can get moderate snow up here. NAM says yes, GFS said yes last night. Let's see what 12z says
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:44 am

High to the north is definitely more expansive than 00z run. Could help us out by forcing a similar track to 00z instead of further north and west by the time it gets here.

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:45 am

Slightly NW of 0z
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:45 am

Annnndddd GFS is rain into NEPA lower Hudson Valley. Yay -_-

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:48 am

Oy rb thats a lot of ice (looks like near .75-.9?!, that would be devastating, lets hope the unamed model is dead wrong.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:48 am

@rb924119 wrote:GEWWW!!!!!! Nice for those north and west of the city, but this could be nasty (bottom right panel; accumulated freezing rain in inches):

http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/ne.namacctype12-29.gif

NOT saying this verifies, but *if it were to*...

That would be a devastating ice storm across central Jersey. Hopefully nothing like that in the cards.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:49 am

seriously rb!
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Post by jimv45 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:49 am

In Duthess not worried about rain with temps in the teens!

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:51 am

NYC/LI and Se mass rains on this run for a while.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:51 am

@aiannone wrote:Waiting to see if i can get moderate snow up here. NAM says yes, GFS said yes last night. Let's see what 12z says

Alex:

You of course realize the better you do with this storm, you're killing snow potential for 631 other users on this board.

The mob and torches may be lit soon, and we may be coming for you, I'd tread lightly my friend it could get ugly. JK
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:52 am

This was the unnamed model or GFS
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:52 am

Ok, Idk why, but the site I use to watch the major models (GFS/EURO and their respective ensembles) MUST be having issues because I am looking at two separate maps every time I refresh the damn page. The one brings rain into NEPA/NW NJ/ lower HV, but the second one keeps it JUST south. As you can imagine, this plays hell on the snow totals. Here is the latest one I am looking at lol:

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/12/snosums/0024/GFS_12_opUS_SF_0060.png


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