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Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:53 am

gfs rain way north from what im hearing, waiting on wxbell.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:54 am

Ugh ugh they keep trending north
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:54 am

@jimv45 wrote:In Duthess not worried about rain with temps in the teens!

Don't ever under estimate the potential for sleet and freezing rain though Jim. These WAA have a tendency to go a lot further north than people might think.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:54 am

@rb924119 wrote:Ok, here's my first call. There is an ice threat for central-eastern PA and into central NJ, but right now I feel it's not going to be major ice, and so it was left off. That said, maybe up to a tenth of an inch will be possible for some locations. If I feel that chances increase for this, I will add it to my final map. Here goes:

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 4 Feb1-210

Nice map RB but here's my critique. Your accumulation lines are IMO all about 20 miles too far north. This map were it to verify would totally negate all the WSW from southern Ct. NNJ south. Just too cold outside for things to not trend south. Last March 2015!!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:54 am

rb something is odd about wxbell too, there is only a red line no blue lines to show colder air, a model run error?
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:54 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:In Duthess not worried about rain with temps in the teens!

Don't ever under estimate the potential for sleet and freezing rain though Jim. These WAA have a tendency to go a lot further north than people might think.

100% agree.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:55 am

@jmanley32 wrote:rb something is odd about wxbell too, there is only a red line no blue lines to show colder air, a model run error?

Idk Jman, but there is definitely some cooky stuff going on lmfao

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:56 am

@rb924119 wrote:GEWWW!!!!!! Nice for those north and west of the city, but this could be nasty (bottom right panel; accumulated freezing rain in inches):

http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/ne.namacctype12-29.gif

NOT saying this verifies, but *if it were to*...

This map shows between .8 to 1.0 QPF for NYC/LI that's 8 to 10" of snow.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:56 am

gr8 so we may have to wait for 00z gfs to get a rule on it.
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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:58 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Waiting to see if i can get moderate snow up here. NAM says yes, GFS said yes last night. Let's see what 12z says

Alex:

You of course realize the better you do with this storm, you're killing snow potential for 631 other users on this board.

The mob and torches may be lit soon, and we may be coming for you, I'd tread lightly my friend it could get ugly. JK

I am well aware. I haven't seen a storm bigger than 4" this whole year. It's my turn! GFS gives me .6" of liquid at 2-6* so with ratios that's 18-24"
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Post by jimv45 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:58 am

yea cp lets hope nobody see that ice that would be a bad bad situation but up in out are just don't see that happening the cold is locked in here

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:58 am

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 4 Usa_as11
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:59 am

wow way north warm line is almost into nys on the backside, whatever precip it is coming in buckets!

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 4 Gfs_sl10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:00 am

this really stinks, sorry to complain but wow, that jumped like a hundred+ miles north with the precip totals!
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:02 am

@Syo- Thanks!! And that may be true, but I seriously believe that the warm air will win, ESPECIALLY with the low-/mid-levels on and west of us. There's nothing stopping the warm advection. In fact, based on the latest GFS Op, these totals may be too far SOUTH. We'll see how things go. And with respect to negating WSWs.......what about Juno? lol How many of those were dropped mid-storm?

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:05 am

@jmanley32 wrote:wow way north warm line is almost into nys on the backside, whatever precip it is coming in buckets!

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 4 Gfs_sl10

This GFS model shows a bombing out cutter with the low center over northern PA. With this cold???????? That would be really hard to believe. Why the hell are the models this year in so much disagreement. Just yesterday the comments were how EVERY single model was in agreement. Now 18 hours later total mayhem?? The Weather Channel (which has been right a lot this year) has NYC metro for 8 to 12" with some minor am mixing.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:07 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:wow way north warm line is almost into nys on the backside, whatever precip it is coming in buckets!

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 4 Gfs_sl10

This GFS model shows a bombing out cutter with the low center over northern PA.  With this cold???????? That would be really hard to believe.  Why the hell are the models this year in so much disagreement.  Just yesterday the comments were how EVERY single model was in agreement.  Now 18 hours later total mayhem??  The Weather Channel (which has been right a lot this year) has NYC metro for 8 to 12" with some minor am mixing.

Diabatic processes play hell on models. This is what I was saying yesterday.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:08 am

Up to two feet for nothern areas, now i am not sure what other precip typles but qpf around nyc is well over 1.00 and has less than 6 inches of snow even into my area,i seriously hope that pother half inch plus is not frz. Although like on the unamed model the ice would come north it loos like.
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Post by tigernumba1 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:08 am

thats just one model run. I think we have to wait to see how the other models come in before we jump on the rain train.
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Post by jimv45 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:08 am

yes snow I agree no way this happens the cold air is solid and only going to get worse Monday like I have been saying ice could be a big problem south of 287!

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:09 am

@rb924119 wrote:@Syo- Thanks!! And that may be true, but I seriously believe that the warm air will win, ESPECIALLY with the low-/mid-levels on and west of us. There's nothing stopping the warm advection. In fact, based on the latest GFS Op, these totals may be too far SOUTH. We'll see how things go. And with respect to negating WSWs.......what about Juno? lol How many of those were dropped mid-storm?

If you're right these will be dropped by 4:00 p.m. today which is when NWS updates their forecast package. Imagine this unbelievable cold turning to a 6 to 8 hour period of above freezing temps and rain, then followed by below 0 temps all in under 48 hours. Holy shit would that be a kick in the you know what especially after last weeks historic bust.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:09 am

It's just really crazy how the models been but it's obvious the trends are continuing north and if This continues it's torching a lot of areas just can't get things our way. What a shift 100 miles north
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:09 am

Hour 54 is ugly for NNJ

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 4 Gfs_ms10

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:10 am

this is gonna be another nowcast i can see it now. Wait til llater this afternoon, models all come in like this everything will be dropped. something is weird though gfs on wxbell is not coming in with all its abilities and maps etc this may be a error lets see what cmc and euro show.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:10 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:wow way north warm line is almost into nys on the backside, whatever precip it is coming in buckets!

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming  - Page 4 Gfs_sl10

This GFS model shows a bombing out cutter with the low center over northern PA.  With this cold???????? That would be really hard to believe.  Why the hell are the models this year in so much disagreement.  Just yesterday the comments were how EVERY single model was in agreement.  Now 18 hours later total mayhem??  The Weather Channel (which has been right a lot this year) has NYC metro for 8 to 12" with some minor am mixing.

This video from 2:08 to 3:10 explains what we are going through. DT (regardless of what you think of him) talks about no matter how cold it may get leading up to the event, the snow will ALWAYS changeover if the 850 mb low goes to your west.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIPpSUYuSQ0

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