SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND

For analysis and discussion on these maps please refer to the Update #2 thread:
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t455-update-2-1st-call-snow-map-intense-winter-storm-coming

Frank:


Mine:
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This is rb's map...NICE Map BTW:

I posted this on facebook.  Not sure what your thoughts are on this but I wanted to hear your insight.

"As winter storm will impact our area Sunday night into Monday. Here are some early thoughts on this system
NOTE: This is NOT a final call, but this map is based on how the models have come in through the night. The letters on the map correspond to the following:
A) Snow mid-evening tomorrow before changing over to plain rain by dawn on Monday.
B) Snow by 11 PM Sunday picking up in intensity over the next several hours, then a changeover to freezing rain by 5 AM, most likely transitioning over to plain rain by 7 AM
C) Snow by 11 PM Sunday picking up in intensity over the next several hours, then a changeover to freezing rain by 5 AM likely persisting throughout much of the morning hours. The Wild Card will be when surface temperatures go above 32 degrees. The longer it takes to go above this threshold, the longer it takes to go to plain rain. If this does not occur, expect a major ice storm with a quarter inch of ice in many spots.
D) Snow late Sunday night picking up in intensity through daybreak, followed by a change to sleet. By the afternoon, back end snow will take place
E) Snow arriving late Sunday night picking up in intensity becoming heavy by daybreak. No changeover, resulting in all snow. Up to a foot of snow, if not more, likely in this location.
As we get closer to this event, the short range models love to play around with the snow/ice and ice/rain lines. I am not staying up for the 0Z EURO run as I have an early morning shift tomorrow. Regardless of how this storm pans out, this is a treacherous and nasty storm we have on our hands."

I decided to make a first call map for this storm since I really enjoy making them. Not sure if it's completely accurate because I was mainly focusing on the metro area, but I will make a final one sometime tomorrow.

Snow I think many on this would sign in blood right now for this map and I think you have a good shot at it verifying a 10-15 tick south and bingo! Nice job

Nice maps guys!!! Math, I like your breakdown of timing for the most part. Personally, these are just my thoughts, but I think the changeover for your "All rain" section happens much sooner than 5am, but otherwise I like it. Snow, yours too. I love your color scheme, and how you denote NYC basically as the battleground for >6 or <6, depending on the subtleties. You both, along with the rest of us, have very similar ideas. Remember, these are only opinions. Don't let them sway you into something you don't think will or will not happen. YOUR map, YOUR thoughts Nice work, though; without a doubt.

Math & Snow- awesome maps! Mike I like how you have a little description for each zone. Snow as you will see soon we have similar idea

I am calling this final but I am not 100% positive yet. May have an updated final Sunday night

Im with you Frank.  This is a "Final" Call but as we get into now cast mode it may change a little.

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Here's my final call:

Here is my final call snow map.

Nice maps guys varying subtlties on each but basically u guys are on the same board, as stated changes may be in line in either direction as precip moves in.

snow247 wrote:Here is my final call snow map.

Great map Snow. I'm right in the sweet spot (8-12+). NICE !

snow247 wrote:Here is my final call snow map.

This seems about right to me. Good map.

Cut all my totals in half in the Grey zone and points south. Its hard to imagine that literally 36-48 hrs ago Euro Op/EPS/GFS op/GEFS/CMC/GEPS all agreed on a track somewhere between the Del MarVa and S NJ bringing wide spread 6-12 from C NJ North.
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I'd say my snowfall map was pretty accurate. Looks like most got the higher end of my predicted totals.

snow247 wrote:Here is my final call snow map.

I'd say my snow map was pretty accurate. Looks like most got the higher end of my predicted totals.