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SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:51 am

For analysis and discussion on these maps please refer to the Update #2 thread:
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t455-update-2-1st-call-snow-map-intense-winter-storm-coming

Frank:
SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND 1st_call_snow_map_february_2nd

Mine:
SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND <a href=SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Feb_1s12" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Quietace Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:13 am

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND 2-2-1510

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:57 am

This is rb's map...NICE Map BTW:

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Feb1-210

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:10 am

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Winter10

I posted this on facebook.  Not sure what your thoughts are on this but I wanted to hear your insight.

"As winter storm will impact our area Sunday night into Monday. Here are some early thoughts on this system
NOTE: This is NOT a final call, but this map is based on how the models have come in through the night. The letters on the map correspond to the following:
A) Snow mid-evening tomorrow before changing over to plain rain by dawn on Monday.
B) Snow by 11 PM Sunday picking up in intensity over the next several hours, then a changeover to freezing rain by 5 AM, most likely transitioning over to plain rain by 7 AM
C) Snow by 11 PM Sunday picking up in intensity over the next several hours, then a changeover to freezing rain by 5 AM likely persisting throughout much of the morning hours. The Wild Card will be when surface temperatures go above 32 degrees. The longer it takes to go above this threshold, the longer it takes to go to plain rain. If this does not occur, expect a major ice storm with a quarter inch of ice in many spots.
D) Snow late Sunday night picking up in intensity through daybreak, followed by a change to sleet. By the afternoon, back end snow will take place
E) Snow arriving late Sunday night picking up in intensity becoming heavy by daybreak. No changeover, resulting in all snow. Up to a foot of snow, if not more, likely in this location.
As we get closer to this event, the short range models love to play around with the snow/ice and ice/rain lines. I am not staying up for the 0Z EURO run as I have an early morning shift tomorrow. Regardless of how this storm pans out, this is a treacherous and nasty storm we have on our hands."

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:25 am

I decided to make a first call map for this storm since I really enjoy making them. Not sure if it's completely accurate because I was mainly focusing on the metro area, but I will make a final one sometime tomorrow.

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Firstc11
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:34 am

Snow I think many on this would sign in blood right now for this map and I think you have a good shot at it verifying a 10-15 tick south and bingo! Nice job

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:36 am

Nice maps guys!!! Math, I like your breakdown of timing for the most part. Personally, these are just my thoughts, but I think the changeover for your "All rain" section happens much sooner than 5am, but otherwise I like it. Snow, yours too. I love your color scheme, and how you denote NYC basically as the battleground for >6 or <6, depending on the subtleties. You both, along with the rest of us, have very similar ideas. Remember, these are only opinions. Don't let them sway you into something you don't think will or will not happen. YOUR map, YOUR thoughts Smile Nice work, though; without a doubt.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:38 am

Math & Snow- awesome maps! Mike I like how you have a little description for each zone. Snow as you will see soon we have similar idea

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:58 am

I am calling this final but I am not 100% positive yet. May have an updated final Sunday night

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Final_snow_map_february_2nd_2015

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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:34 am

Im with you Frank.  This is a "Final" Call but as we get into now cast mode it may change a little.

[img]SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Feb_1s16[/img]

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:30 am

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Mamap10

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:43 am

Here's my final call:

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Feb1-211

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:04 pm

Here is my final call snow map.

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Finalc10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:30 pm

Nice maps guys varying subtlties on each but basically u guys are on the same board, as stated changes may be in line in either direction as precip moves in.
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:45 pm

@snow247 wrote:Here is my final call snow map.

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Finalc10

Great map Snow. I'm right in the sweet spot (8-12+). NICE !
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:54 pm

@snow247 wrote:Here is my final call snow map.

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Finalc10

This seems about right to me. Good map.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:08 pm

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Final_snow_map_february_2nd_2015

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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 01, 2015 4:50 pm

Cut all my totals in half in the Grey zone and points south. Its hard to imagine that literally 36-48 hrs ago Euro Op/EPS/GFS op/GEFS/CMC/GEPS all agreed on a track somewhere between the Del MarVa and S NJ bringing wide spread 6-12 from C NJ North.
SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND <a href=SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Feb_1s16" />


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:05 am

I'd say my snowfall map was pretty accurate. Looks like most got the higher end of my predicted totals.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:13 am

@snow247 wrote:Here is my final call snow map.

SNOW MAPS: FEB 1ST/2ND Finalc10

I'd say my snow map was pretty accurate. Looks like most got the higher end of my predicted totals.
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