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Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:52 am

With this setup as it stands I would swear as a layman weather watcher it's the perfect setup for a big snow for most of our area. I would never think with a 1032 MB high sitting in the perfect spot over SE Ontario that we would have any p type or cutting issues. I would look at the map and think just don't go to far south. Live and learn.

I would add one thing though which our experts have pointed out, if the changeover line remains constant for a long period, and considering the straight line this low could travel east west it's possible, whoever is just north of that boundary line could get really crushed with snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:58 am

Rgem got snowier from previous runs

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 2 SN_000-048_0000

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:01 am

Gem-lam

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 2 SN_000-048_0000

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:02 am

Great Maps and analysis Frank and Scott.  Just woke up and it comes down to nowcasting time and SR models depiction. The problem being and Scott made mention is how much does the arctic high press on the system, I listened to Jeff Smith last night and he and the "team" feels the track will be to the south of NYC and as I posted yesterday from looking ta the skew T's NYC may not get above 32* at all but the mid layers may warm enough to be rain but at the surface it is still freezing - that would be a first IMO. I said this yesterday when everyone was freaking out here about the warm push yes it is real but I am using and I will hold steadfast that I 80 is the R/s line - I use 1992 storms, 1994 storms and 2004 storms as examples - same type of set up. Now if the HP presses further south then we jog south. Problem being for us up here NNJ but a good one is the layer of cold air at the surface is not going to erode as some made mention here yesterday - this is personally why I stepped away and had a boat load of thing s to do. Juts one snow weenie's opinion and I hope for the best for all of us but as I said CNJ ( I 195 area N to Driscoll bridge west) SECS and SNJ this is not your storm so to speak for MECS criteria snowfall ..............you'll take it right?

Get this blizzard warning where posted for Chicago and Flurries/Light Snow in Harrisburg - the precip may start sooner than we think - DOH! And looking over the models this morning the GEFS are colder than the OP sensing the cold air better.

Oh and one last point before I go have breakfast - the barclonic zone set up between the cold air and warm air where ever that sets up - people just to the north in a 10 maybe 15-20 mile line wide going east to west - you will get crushed - I see it at the NENJ/NY state border going west - NWNJ and West Milford areas as well as LHV get it real good - sticking with my 8-16" total for them - have to learn how to do a map.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:03 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Rgem got snowier from previous runs

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 2 SN_000-048_0000

Look at how thin that margin for error is on a line from Trenton northeast to Hudson County.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:03 am

@Frank 2 SR nodels that have performed well this winter IMO - I'll take it where do I sign now??

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:04 am

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 2 10011506_10155153770955344_1631692652688646722_n

Ouch

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:04 am

Good points mugs

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:05 am

@amugs wrote:@Frank 2 SR nodels that have performed well this winter IMO - I'll take it where do I sign now??

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 2 January_31_2015_34246_PM_EST

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:06 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Just woke up see soul what did I tell ya. 4 to 8 and yikes 1/4 ice which was upped from.1 to .25 storm will be interesting for sure. Could get dangerous monday and again tues morning. Frank I know this is a crap shoot but that darker ice area or any of it for th as t fact is me if u were to guess will this effect travel.in the am monday or be during the day? Wil it be wise for me to travel to work Monday morning if I have to?

Work home

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:07 am

Frank - RGEM picking up on cold air better - or the intrusion for the HP better - this is great to see and hopefully it keeps trending this way for all of our board members - peeps I am looking out for all us here!!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:09 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:@Frank 2 SR nodels that have performed well this winter IMO - I'll take it where do I sign now??

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 2 January_31_2015_34246_PM_EST

lol! I love it, I still have to sign mine from yesterday. What other weather forum offers signed guarantees, that's why I love this place.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:12 am

@amugs wrote:Frank - RGEM picking up  on cold air better - or the intrusion for the HP better - this is great to see and hopefully it keeps trending this way for all of our board members - peeps I am looking out for all us here!!!

Except for Alex, scroo him.

JK Alex, but I'm being real, I don't want you to benefit from this storm cause we all get scrooed if you do.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:14 am

NAM looks like it has almost no snow for the city and LI on south.

Edit: Nevermind haha.


Last edited by snow247 on Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:21 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by HeresL Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:16 am

@mugs: This West Milford girl loves your forecast!!
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:16 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Frank - RGEM picking up  on cold air better - or the intrusion for the HP better - this is great to see and hopefully it keeps trending this way for all of our board members - peeps I am looking out for all us here!!!

Except for Alex, scroo him.

JK Alex, but I'm being real, I don't want you to benefit from this storm cause we all get scrooed if you do.

Yeah I say we sacrifice one for the benefit of many. Come on Alex jump on that grenade for us buddy. lol

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:19 am

Boy look at storm on radar who ever stays snow will see big totals.

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:21 am

Alex you know we love you kid and down here as you would always ask me and pm me - SCHOOL WILL BE CANCELLED TOMORROW and maybe Tuesday if not a delayed due to the ice conditions - we'll see but I am expecting a phone call tonight from my district - YIPEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:23 am

@HeresL wrote:@mugs: This West Milford girl loves your forecast!!

RBAY = Right Back At You!!

Here you go schools in NNJ cancel tomorrow - pretty safe bet once they here ice they poop their pants!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:24 am

Would need a prayer for any snow here come on HP lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:27 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Would need a prayer for any snow here come on HP lol

Unlikely Skins but miracles do happen. It wouldn't be the first time.
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:30 am

instead of milk&bread have to stock on rock salt and ice melt
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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:48 am

Anybody see how dry the latest NAM is coming in???

http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/ne.namacctype12-11.gif

That's with no precipitation left to fall.......

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:52 am

@rb924119 wrote:Anybody see how dry the latest NAM is coming in???

http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/ne.namacctype12-11.gif

That's with no precipitation left to fall.......

Not that dry

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 2 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f35

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:54 am

SREFs came in colder now.

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