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Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze

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mancave25
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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:55 am

You're totally right, Frank. I'm just a dumb-ass. I didn't realize that the other map I was looking at wasn't loaded to the same place ahahaha oops :p

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:14 am

Folks,

The models are starting to pick up on the big bad cold HP to our north here - they underestimate Mr Frosty all the time and again Jeff Smith said this on the 11 o'clock news 2x last night.

A very good trend.

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:15 am

nam and rgem actually came in warmer at 12z. while the polar air is making an initial push now it is going to retreat later this evening an esp tom morning. very little ice threat in and around nyc. imo.
Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 I_nw_r1_EST_2015020112_021
12z
Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 I_nw_r1_EST_2015020100_033
00z
Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 I_nw_r1_EST_2015020112_025
12z
Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 I_nw_r1_EST_2015020100_037
00z
still expecting 4-8" for nyc metro with front end dump leaning more towards 4". backend looks bad as low passes to close to us to have an effect.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:17 am

Temps already in the low 30's here

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:19 am

boy mid-Hudson valley gets nailed on that map

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:20 am

The low level cold air thickness is going to be hard to erode and this is what I see models picking up on as we move forward.

@ Skins hoping for you bud - want he hp to jog this bad boy a good 50 miles south Very Happy

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Post by essexcountypete Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:23 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 10011506_10155153770955344_1631692652688646722_n

Ouch

Frank, we've had a lot of models suggest a lot of ice accretion in the last few storms, only to have it either dialed down as we get closer to game time, in some cases dissappearing altogether.

This map is pretty scary, and it seems like this set up might actually mean it, as far as ice build-up. Are these totals realistic or should we take this map with a grain of salt?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:25 am

Models are all over the place with the ice. It's a nowcast situation. I do think at least .10 is likely, however, not sure if we surpass .20 like some guidance suggest . Play it by ear for now

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:27 am

Water temperatures are impressively cold right now. Generally near freezing or in some cases slightly below. Montauk recording 29.5F, and Sandy Hook 31.5F This is why UPTON is going with so much ice accretion IMO.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cwtg/catl.html

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:28 am

the storm is cutting into ohio we needed to be over west Virginia. ukie was the closest model on this storm. imo
Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 Rgem_T850_us_6
look how warm 850's get
Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 Rgem_T850_us_10
even boston going to mix
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:30 am

Yea Al, I agree with the UKIE.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:32 am

@RJB8525 wrote:instead of milk&bread have to stock on rock salt and ice melt

To put on bread and in milk? Sounds horrible.
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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:34 am

Temps here in low 30's already Is HP sinking S ?

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:34 am

Frank as of right now what is your gut feeling for cp doc and myself in mid-Hudson valley got super bowl party and hope it stays snow then ice!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:35 am

@jimv45 wrote:Frank as of right now what is your gut feeling for cp doc and myself in mid-Hudson valley got super bowl party and hope it stays snow then ice!

Sticking with my final call map, for now.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:35 am

@oldtimer wrote:Temps here in low 30's already   Is HP sinking S ?

No, it's expected to stay in SE Canada. Your temps should remain there through tomorrow

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Post by essexcountypete Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:42 am

Thanks Frank! So totals may be wacky but we may get ice build-up. Will be checking the path generator today just in case.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:45 am

Heavy rain after 3-4 inches of snow on the latest GFS

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

Once the low tracks off the coast, winds shift to the northwest and temps crash. Maybe another 1-2 inches of additional snow.

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

GFS not enthused with the ice idea. At this point, I'm betting against the high ice amounts but even .10" is enough to cause problems.

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:52 am

heavy rain for who?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:52 am

Looking at current observations I'm leaning toward a warmer storm for some. May have to update my final call snow map later today

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:53 am

At this stage of the game, I'm done looking at all global models. Short-range guidance all the way, for me.

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Post by mancave25 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:54 am

How does Sussex county do with this storm, do we see any rain

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:54 am

Trends today don't seem good, if anything they seem to be getting worse? Not what I was looking for Frank.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:56 am

it still is good for us cp but sucks

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:58 am

@jimv45 wrote:it still is good for us cp but sucks

I don't agree Jim. I see Orange County with huge problems with mid level temperatures if this continues. Sleet and freezing rain will cut down on totals. I'm not buying the 10-14 NWS is predicting.
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