February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
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mancave25
weatherwatchermom
Quietace
oldtimer
NjWeatherGuy
centaurusB
jldio
dad4twoboys
jimv45
lglickman1
Math23x7
psv88
Dtone
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Radz
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RJB8525
sroc4
aiannone
essexcountypete
rb924119
Dunnzoo
Taffy
SNOW MAN
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CPcantmeasuresnow
algae888
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36 posters
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
i got a really nice squall of snow coming down heavy right now and the wind has amped up
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
jimv45 wrote:cp you feeling good about the next two?
I like Tuesday Wednesday setup better of course. My only worries there are the WAA which looks like it will be present to our south and can scroo with totals if it nudges far another north into our mid levels, but it has the potential for our blockbuster, but to far out to get hyper yet.
Saturday night Sunday. My guess would be 3-5 for us. So many moving parts there, between the possible Norlun Trough and the south trend. I see the possibility for over 6 for us but I'd still place the odds against it.
Let me know how much you get from the current squall, it's done here.
Your thoughts?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
yea 3 to 6 for the weekend but Tuesday into Wednesday looks real good right now!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Good news Doc and Jim, TWC lowered their 12-20 inches for Tuesday/Wednesday to 4-8. I'm much more comfortable with that at this point in time. KOD when they jump the gun.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
cp that ---- they must have someone sitting there just to piss people off except you know where!! how many times have they changed the totals when a storm is on the map?
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
snow stopping here looks like around an inch!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Super heavy snow here in Syosset. Started out at 36 degrees but ground already covered.
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
the hammer is coming down hard now, 32* 20mph winds feel like is 20 within the past hr
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
My low was -3*at 1:47am. Now that cloud cover has moved in over me it's up to 1*.
Wow Cp your like a zombie from the Walking Dead wandering around the weather board at 1:34am.
How's that self imposed ban going ? Oh that's right it only lasted 20 minutes.
Wow Cp your like a zombie from the Walking Dead wandering around the weather board at 1:34am.
How's that self imposed ban going ? Oh that's right it only lasted 20 minutes.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Got down to 0 here last night, SNOW. Cloudy and cold now, no wind at all.
CP tries to avoid the board at times but that little snowman in his subconscious brain wakes him up at 1 or 2 AM saying "check the board, check the board...". No cure for that except a massive Miller A snowstorm.
CP tries to avoid the board at times but that little snowman in his subconscious brain wakes him up at 1 or 2 AM saying "check the board, check the board...". No cure for that except a massive Miller A snowstorm.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Doc and Snowman. I got to -4.6 last night before the clouds moved in.
Someday Doc we have to check on our temperature discrepancies. Hard to believe 5 miles can make such a big difference although I suppose it's possible at times. Perhaps we should have our thermometers meet at Home Depot parking lot and have it out once and for all.
Someday Doc we have to check on our temperature discrepancies. Hard to believe 5 miles can make such a big difference although I suppose it's possible at times. Perhaps we should have our thermometers meet at Home Depot parking lot and have it out once and for all.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Low of 2.7 last night Jesus it is cold out my dog looked at me this morning and said where's my parka??
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Hit 0° here mugsy from 3:45 to 4:15 now 15°
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Dunnzoo wrote:Hit 0° here mugsy from 3:45 to 4:15 now 15°
Hmmmm, Which even makes me more suspicious of Docs supposed 0 degree low last night.
Parking lot Home Dept today at noon Doc, let's settle this once and for all, thermometer to thermometer.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
The far west contingent of the board membership checks in with current conditions of 19 degrees and light snow.
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
21.6 °F
Feels Like 22 °F
N0.0
Wind Variable
Gusts 2.0 mph
I am now down graded to a WWA and Wind Advisory.
Congrats TheAresian for being the first to report " the white gold".
Feels Like 22 °F
N0.0
Wind Variable
Gusts 2.0 mph
I am now down graded to a WWA and Wind Advisory.
Congrats TheAresian for being the first to report " the white gold".
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Dunnzoo wrote:Hit 0° here mugsy from 3:45 to 4:15 now 15°
Hmmmm, Which even makes me more suspicious of Docs supposed 0 degree low last night.
Parking lot Home Dept today at noon Doc, let's settle this once and for all, thermometer to thermometer.
"When the final showdown came to pass.....a weatherbook was no good!"
"The day they shot Liberty Valence Doc!"
I think I am getting heat from the house screwing me up.I have to find a location in the yard away from the sun.
Very light snow flurries, __ degrees!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Thanks Taffy. Being 200+ miles west, I have a distinct advantage for this storm. However, I live in the Appalachian mountains, which I'm convinced in an old native american word for Significant Snow Inhibitor.
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
My inhibitor this winter had been The Hudson River!
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
H5 looks like it might trying to close off according to the SPC Meso-analysis page. It's not contoured, but look at the wind barbs
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
mike cpk as of 2/15 is 8* below normal for the month. we have 13 days left and at least one more arctic outbreak this week so do we have a shot at the coldest feb. on record? what is the record temp departure for cpk?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
algae888 wrote:mike cpk as of 2/15 is 8* below normal for the month. we have 13 days left and at least one more arctic outbreak this week so do we have a shot at the coldest feb. on record? what is the record temp departure for cpk?
We have a 0% chance at that Al.
The all time record low average temperature for Central Park for the month of February is 19.9 degrees in 1934. So far in February it's 26.6. We're not beating that or even will be close.
That's also the same year they set their all time record low of -15.
There's a chance to get in the top 10 coldest Februarys of all time. That's 1923 at 26.2 so not that far off.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
cp I mean temp. departures. obviously we are much warmer than the 1930's however we are 8* below normal so far this year compared to the normal ave. which is usually the previous 30 years. what was 1934's ave. compared to normal. prob not -8*. i'm thinking the greatest temp dep. for any month is closer to 6*. so I think we have a shotCPcantmeasuresnow wrote:algae888 wrote:mike cpk as of 2/15 is 8* below normal for the month. we have 13 days left and at least one more arctic outbreak this week so do we have a shot at the coldest feb. on record? what is the record temp departure for cpk?
We have a 0% chance at that Al.
The all time record low average temperature for Central Park for the month of February is 19.9 degrees in 1934. So far in February it's 26.6. We're not beating that or even will be close.
That's also the same year they set their all time record low of -15.
There's a chance to get in the top 10 coldest Februarys of all time. That's 1923 at 26.2 so not that far off.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
algae888 wrote:cp I mean temp. departures. obviously we are much warmer than the 1930's however we are 8* below normal so far this year compared to the normal ave. which is usually the previous 30 years. what was 1934's ave. compared to normal. prob not -8*. i'm thinking the greatest temp dep. for any month is closer to 6*. so I think we have a shotCPcantmeasuresnow wrote:algae888 wrote:mike cpk as of 2/15 is 8* below normal for the month. we have 13 days left and at least one more arctic outbreak this week so do we have a shot at the coldest feb. on record? what is the record temp departure for cpk?
We have a 0% chance at that Al.
The all time record low average temperature for Central Park for the month of February is 19.9 degrees in 1934. So far in February it's 26.6. We're not beating that or even will be close.
That's also the same year they set their all time record low of -15.
There's a chance to get in the top 10 coldest Februarys of all time. That's 1923 at 26.2 so not that far off.
I see what you're saying Al, but I'm not sure they keep such a record. Since 30 year averages are recalculated every 10 years that would be a moving target.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
As the scroll indicates, additional light snow accumulations possible Thursday
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Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Very Dry up here currently... Humidity 27%
Brewster, NY
6:18 PM EST on February 16, 2015 (GMT -0500)
Brewster Hill
Elev 564 ft 41.38 °N, 73.61 °W | Updated 1 sec ago
Clear
16.0 °F
Today
High 20 | Low 5 °F
Yesterday
High 19.9 | Low 0.1 °F
Precip. 0 in
Sun & Moon
6:48 AM 5:29 PM
Waning Crescent, 6% visible
Pressure 30.02 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Clear
Windchill 15 °F
Dew Point -13 °F
Humidity 27%
METAR KDXR 162253Z 31005KT 10SM CLR M09/M26 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP197 T10891256
Brewster, NY
6:18 PM EST on February 16, 2015 (GMT -0500)
Brewster Hill
Elev 564 ft 41.38 °N, 73.61 °W | Updated 1 sec ago
Clear
16.0 °F
Today
High 20 | Low 5 °F
Yesterday
High 19.9 | Low 0.1 °F
Precip. 0 in
Sun & Moon
6:48 AM 5:29 PM
Waning Crescent, 6% visible
Pressure 30.02 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Clear
Windchill 15 °F
Dew Point -13 °F
Humidity 27%
METAR KDXR 162253Z 31005KT 10SM CLR M09/M26 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP197 T10891256
Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread
Something I was thinking about tonight. I'm almost positive that my total for this winter so far is only 25-30 inches at best. I only got two big storms, a 6.5 inch storm and a 9.5 inch storm. The rest have been 1-2 inch clippers here. So adding it all up I don't think I'm past 30 inches on the season. Strange because everyone else outside of my county is well above me (with the exception of south of me, but that will likely change soon). Guess I'm in a localized bad spot for storms this winter.
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