NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Page 4 of 14 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 9 ... 14  Next

Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by amugs Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:42 pm

For the record cold temps ever recorded in KYNC

Coldest temperatures...
-15 in 1934 2/9 - Poughkipsee recorded -34* that night and trees were exploded from the sap freezing inside them - CP you posted this - right?
-8 in 1943 2/15
-7 in 1934 2/8
-6 in 1899 2/10
-6 in 1918 2/5
-5 in 1896 2/17
-4 in 1886 2/5
-4 in 1895 2/6
-4 in 1873 2/24

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by psv88 Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:44 pm

Hey Amugs etc.

33 here on the island now.




psv88

Posts : 25
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2015-02-10
Location : Albertson, New York, Nassau County

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?quer

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:54 pm

@amugs wrote:For the record cold temps ever recorded in KYNC

Coldest temperatures...
-15 in 1934 2/9 - Poughkipsee recorded -34* that night and trees were exploded from the sap freezing inside them - CP you posted this - right?
-8 in 1943 2/15
-7 in 1934 2/8
-6 in 1899 2/10
-6 in 1918 2/5
-5 in 1896 2/17
-4 in 1886 2/5
-4 in 1895 2/6
-4 in 1873 2/24

What about -13 on December 30th, 1917?

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:58 pm

7am temps on Saturday

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_t2m_b_nyc_16

1pm temps on Sunday

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_t2m_b_nyc_21


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:58 pm

Winds chills 1pm Sunday. Seriously, wow.

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_windchill_nyc_21

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by amugs Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:19 pm

Holy Mother of Cold - Jesus I have my sons hockey game Sunday night - it is is inside but my god I do not want to leave m y house wit these temps and wind chills.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:58 pm

trees exploding that should be interesting lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:14 am

@amugs wrote:For the record cold temps ever recorded in KYNC

Coldest temperatures...
-15 in 1934 2/9 - Poughkipsee recorded -34* that night and trees were exploded from the sap freezing inside them - CP you posted this - right?
-8 in 1943 2/15
-7 in 1934 2/8
-6 in 1899 2/10
-6 in 1918 2/5
-5 in 1896 2/17
-4 in 1886 2/5
-4 in 1895 2/6
-4 in 1873 2/24

Mugs you have the NYC all time low correct with the -15. The all time low in Poughkeepsie in the middle of the HV was -30 but that was January 1961. I'd have to look up the exact date but yes people woke up that morning to what they thought was gunshots and it was the sap freezing in some of the maples. The January 61 cold snap was longer and more impressive even than the February 1934.

More recently of course and most over 30 would remember the January 1994 cold wave. It hit -34 in NW jersey. Most of HV was -20 to -25 including as I've often repeated -23 at my house and of course the heat island even managed to hit -2. I remember getting the paper in the -23 and the first thing I noticed was you feel everything in your nostrils because they must freeze right when you step out the door. Many buses wouldn't start so schools were cancelled. My car started up fine and I remember the Hudson was frozen almost solid
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:42 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:For the record cold temps ever recorded in KYNC

Coldest temperatures...
-15 in 1934 2/9 - Poughkipsee recorded -34* that night and trees were exploded from the sap freezing inside them - CP you posted this - right?
-8 in 1943 2/15
-7 in 1934 2/8
-6 in 1899 2/10
-6 in 1918 2/5
-5 in 1896 2/17
-4 in 1886 2/5
-4 in 1895 2/6
-4 in 1873 2/24

Mugs you have the NYC all time low correct with the -15. The all time low in Poughkeepsie in the middle of the HV was -30 but that was January 1961. I'd have to look up the exact date  but yes people woke up that morning to what they thought was gunshots and it was the sap freezing in some of the maples. The January 61 cold snap was longer and more impressive even than the February 1934.

More recently of course and most over 30 would remember the January 1994 cold wave.  It hit -34 in NW jersey. Most of HV was -20 to -25 including as I've often repeated -23 at my house and of course the heat island even managed to hit -2. I remember getting the paper in the -23 and the first thing I noticed was you feel everything in your nostrils because they must freeze right when you step out the door. Many buses wouldn't start so schools were cancelled. My car started up fine and I remember the Hudson was frozen almost solid

Now that's what I call Winter ! Bring it on !
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1353
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 61
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:48 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:For the record cold temps ever recorded in KYNC

Coldest temperatures...
-15 in 1934 2/9 - Poughkipsee recorded -34* that night and trees were exploded from the sap freezing inside them - CP you posted this - right?
-8 in 1943 2/15
-7 in 1934 2/8
-6 in 1899 2/10
-6 in 1918 2/5
-5 in 1896 2/17
-4 in 1886 2/5
-4 in 1895 2/6
-4 in 1873 2/24

Mugs you have the NYC all time low correct with the -15. The all time low in Poughkeepsie in the middle of the HV was -30 but that was January 1961. I'd have to look up the exact date  but yes people woke up that morning to what they thought was gunshots and it was the sap freezing in some of the maples. The January 61 cold snap was longer and more impressive even than the February 1934.

More recently of course and most over 30 would remember the January 1994 cold wave.  It hit -34 in NW jersey. Most of HV was -20 to -25 including as I've often repeated -23 at my house and of course the heat island even managed to hit -2. I remember getting the paper in the -23 and the first thing I noticed was you feel everything in your nostrils because they must freeze right when you step out the door. Many buses wouldn't start so schools were cancelled. My car started up fine and I remember the Hudson was frozen almost solid

Now that's what I call Winter ! Bring it on !

My thoughts exactly snow Man. No hysteria, no TV anchors telling me not to go outside, embrace it and enjoy it, it's the best. Of course some more snow to go along with it would be nice.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by Taffy Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:06 am

23.6 °F
Feels Like 14 °F
N9.0
Wind from NE
Gusts 19.0 mph.....
Taffy
Taffy
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 521
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2013-10-06
Location : Hopkinton, MA

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by amugs Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:14 am

18* this morning

BIG WINTER incoming - like when I was a kid in eh 76-77 & 77-78 - we played football everyday on the frozen tundra - can you hear rte nfl productions music in the background - Steve Sabol RIP!

In middle school they wanted us outside and playing so as normal kids did we put on face masks and hats and our snorkel jackets and played. TODAY - Forget about it. It is like a serial rapist is coming to town.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:29 am

well Thursday is quickly becoming no more that a few flurries for most of the area and sunday and Tuesdays systems are not looking to promising at the moment. probably because of the +ao we have seen a very consistent northward shift in guidance this winter and it is certainly showing no signs of letting up. here are the gfs last several days on progression of each system.
Thursday...
February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13
18z monday had low over va capes
February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8
00z last night has low well east of c nj coast.
sat/sun system...
February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24
Monday 12z gfs has inverted trough over snj and philly
February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17
6z this morning has it over s ne.
Tuesday....
February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32
06z gfs from tues has this low passing well s/e of area.
February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29
ooz gfs from last night has low passing west of us.
my point is that this pattern is locked in (+ao and north shift in guidance) and do not get to excited about these threats coming up as more likely than not we will be let down.
hoping this pattern breaks but do not see it happening atm.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:37 am

oh and do not forget what happened on Monday when guidance 4 days before had us in the bulls eye only to see the north shift and s ne ended up with 1 to 2' of snow
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:12 am

Like they said in Rambo. "It's over Johnny"
Sounds like we'll be getting small snowfall events for the rest of the season.
Truly heart breaking. Sad
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1353
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 61
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:38 am

Thanks Al you bastard.

All kidding aside I'd rather be told the truth than live in a lie. Patterns do change and it doesn't take a drastic turn to make it a positive or negative. We all went into Mid February last year think NYC had a shot at breaking their all time snowfall record. With 55 inches already fallen and nothing but cold and storms on the horizon what happened. Everything shifted south and we kept missing. I'm not saying it happens but it would be nice if it happened this year with us not expecting and it ended up favoring us. It's weather strange things happen.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by lglickman1 Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:44 am

well this reality check is all very depressing, but good to know not to get hopes up moving forward

lglickman1

Posts : 233
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : New Rochelle, NY

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:06 am

No one jump ship yet

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:25 am

Not jumping ship but have one leg over the side.I mentioned this pattern is set in stone right now, and like primary stock trends, are very hard to break.Had nearly 50 inches up here so far so no mas.

No problem, I'd love to see a big one but I'll take a few more 2 to 4's to end the season.Sometimes we get a March surprise in the HV.In March 2013 when my SO moved into her new house, the next day there was 14 inches.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:27 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Thanks Al you bastard.

All kidding aside I'd rather be told the truth than live in a lie. Patterns do change and it doesn't take a drastic turn to make it a positive or negative. We all went into Mid February last year think NYC had a shot at breaking their all time snowfall record. With 55 inches already fallen and nothing but cold and storms on the horizon what happened. Everything shifted south and we kept missing. I'm not saying it happens but it would be nice if it happened this year with us not expecting and it ended up favoring us. It's weather strange things happen.

Yep, you gotta be cruel to be kind.

It is what it is and we will hope for a surprise break of the pattern.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:40 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:Like they said in Rambo. "It's over Johnny"
Sounds like we'll be getting small snowfall events for the rest of the season.
Truly heart breaking. Sad

So this is how a founding father of OTI reacts to a little bad news. Very disappointing. "If Patton were here he would slap your face."

That line is from one of the odd couple episodes where Oscar refuses to sky dive.

Same thing goes for you Doc with your one leg over the side. It may be time to form a breakaway republic again. Perhaps I can convince Taffy to apply for citizenship on OOOOOOTI

Someone please move this to the OTI thread. I'm not typing it again.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:43 am

it seems to me that for some reason the models 4 days out are not picking up on the lack of blocking and push everything to our South and put us in the bulls eye only to correct itself as we get closer to the event. I don't like Thursdays and Saturdays events but Tuesday is a little more interesting as the Ao is supposed to drop to around neutral at that time may be slightly negative. if we look at it like this :Thursday a coating of snow Saturday a couple of inches from some snow squalls and snow showers and Tuesday snow to rain we have nowhere to go but up.lol
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by amugs Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:46 am

Lets not take the models verbatim at this juncture - we have 2 systems ahead of the Tuesday system that will affect it as each system heads north. I am not taking these models as the forecast at this time. H5 looks to be good for the Tuesday storm but this is long range talk here.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by psv88 Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:23 pm

27.2 here currently, off a high of 31.7 and a low of 22.

Feeling good about this weekend's storm, interesting setup and good trends

psv88

Posts : 25
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2015-02-10
Location : Albertson, New York, Nassau County

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?quer

Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by Guest Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:30 pm

Last year we ended with storms trending south. This year storms are all trending north. Could have been an epic 2 winters but we'll settle for a little above average.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread - Page 4 Empty Re: February 2015 Obs. & Discussions Thread

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 14 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 9 ... 14  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum