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Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack?

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Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Empty Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack?

Post by aiannone Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:16 pm

In some places, it is still snowing, and yet we are once again tracking another POTENTIAL snowstorm for this upcoming Thursday. Having the day off from classes today gave me some time to analyze the significant differences between the GFS and Euro as they greatly differ on the evolution of this system.

Lets first start with the 12z Euro (says snowstorm) 500mb analysis:
Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? 500mb_10
Here we can see the trough really digging as a clipper approaches from the upper plains. This intense digging with the trough due to a strong northern stream allows for this clipper to interact with southern stream energy in the gulf, thus resulting in a phase between the systems and eventually forming a LP off the coast yielding a modest snowstorm for the area.

Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? 500mb10
As the trough moves to the east coast and becomes negatively titled, the LP is able to ride along the trough and thus yield a snowstorm for the area.
Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Mslp_811

So why does the GFS have a "no go" for the area. Well let's take a look:
Here is the 500mb analysis from the 12z GFS. You can clearly see that the northern stream is far weaker, thus the trough is rather progressive and does not interact with the southern stream energy allowing it to scoot off the coast and develop far too late for our area.
Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Gfs_5010

Here you can now see a disorganized elongated, undeveloped area of "lower" pressure well off the coast as a result of the discussed issues.
Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Gfs_ms10

So what do we take from this? Well the forecast is very uncertain, but I do expect the GFS to trend towards the Euro on this one. This current pattern has suggested strong digging and strong northern streams and I don't see any reason for this to stop. Models tend to do better once storms move out of the area, so tonight's guidance should start some clear trends. My current thoughts would be 60% snowstorm and 40% no snowstorm. Temps and amounts would be worked out much later.

That's all I got for now. Wish I had more time to be more detailed, but that's the info we have now in a nutshell. I'm sure Frank will have a detailed blog out if need be.


Last edited by aiannone on Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:43 pm

Alex great write up kid very impressed and there will be no room for all the analysis soon on this board. Keep it up kid and that education is paying off as we speak. Love the odds in favor for the storm. We need that pna ridge to not flatten out or come to far east and we look to have an east based block but it can always change.

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Post by devsman Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:07 pm

Now that this storm is gone, I think GFS picks this up at 12Z tomorrow. GFS was showing a storm for that time frame last week. I think GFS does that alot. Shows storm...has it disappear, then reappears a few days before.
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Post by HeresL Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:17 pm

So is this storm potentially coming Thursday the 5th into Friday the 6th? Or Friday the 6th into Saturday the 7th?
Edit: Never mind! The threads were merged and the dates clarified :-) Thanks!


Last edited by HeresL on Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:18 pm

Who needs sleep, right? In the dead of winter it is fair game if you are a winter weather enthusiast. Our next threat comes this Thursday-Friday when another potent piece of polar energy ejects out of Canada and into the eastern CONUS. Current guidance differs on how amplified the mid-level trough could get.

Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Tanal_1

The arctic front is now off the coast. Temps will plummet into the teens and single digits tonight and cause standing water to rapidly freeze. The Arctic High's diving down into the center of the country are a direct result of the impressive pinched off -EPO over Alaska. We saw some this last winter too.

Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Mjo

And it's not just the -EPO helping to configure our upper level pattern. The MJO since the last week of January has been extremely active. When tropical convection gets to or east of the Dateline, this usually signals for a +PNA and an active STJ. The last few storms we have seen have all come with some sort of southern stream energy getting involved in a phase with the northern branch. Clearly the MJO pulse is working in bringing our area storms.

12z EURO

Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Euro1

The current state of the PV is in flux. There are multiple Arctic Vortex' over Canada and the Pole that are being ushered down into the U.S. due to the strong -EPO. The large Pacific trough in combination with tropical forcing has consistently kept our PNA in a positive state. These ingredients coupled with some east-based blocking have given us enough for east coast storms. By Thursday morning, the 12z EURO has a nice looking mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. phasing with some southern stream energy.

Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Euro2

By Friday morning, this trough has gone negative off our coast and we're once again dealing with another coastal low. That is almost a picture perfect alignment of a Pac. trough, western ridge, and eastern trough. It's a great look on the EURO and would bring another sizable snowfall the our area.

Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Gfs1

The GFS, of course, differs. Notice how it never digs the northern stream energy and both jets remain un-phased. It still has the -EPO, Pac. trough, and east-based -NAO...so in that regard it is on par with the EURO. It's just a matter of digging the northern stream energy and developing a strong mid-level trough. The GFS has a bias of mis-handling the northern stream energy by usually keeping it too progressive. The EURO has support from its ensembles and the GFS is making incremental trends toward the EURO in each of its runs. So...I definitely feel this potential has to be watched. However, it's certainly possible it amounts to not much like the GFS shows.

Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Cmc1

The 12z CMC does not look like the EURO, but it still bring a minor snow event to the area. It still digs the northern stream energy much better than the EURO but it's not phasing with southern energy. Instead, it looks more like an arctic front bringing 2-4/3-6 inch type of snows. This is another solution and one that actually makes some sense. The -EPO should allow the northern stream energy to dig much more than the GFS insists. Therefore, I do feel a CMC solution is more likely than that of the GFS.

Either way, I think we will see additional accumulating snowfall this Thursday into Friday. Could be minor, moderate, or heavy. Will depend on how the pattern comes together. But my gut is telling me to side with the EURO then the CMC. Put GFS last even though its been performing pretty well lately.

We shall see

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:23 pm

Did not realize my man Alex had already made a thread, so I just merged mine with his. Phenomenal write up my friend.

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:24 pm

haha, thanks Frank. I knew you would have one coming soon.
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Post by devsman Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:38 pm

The adrenaline is building again!!!
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:52 pm

Alex Dude!!  Great Write up man!!  That was like all growed up.  And yes I used growed up.  It was not autocorrected.  In all seriousness that is a great write up.  It's going to be fun to watch you get your learn on and see it translate on here.  That is unless you get all Cantore on us and become big time and forget about us.

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Post by elkiehound Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:03 pm

Mr G says this one could be significant. He did not say Gozilla though
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:06 pm

@elkiehound wrote:Mr G says this one could be significant. He did not say Gozilla though

I'm suing the first weatherman that starts naming snowstorms Godzilla. I started this 8 years ago.

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@elkiehound wrote:Mr G says this one could be significant. He did not say Gozilla though

I'm suing the first weatherman that starts naming snowstorms Godzilla. I started this 8 years ago.

Don't worry Frank, they like to use "Epic" and "Historic"

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:15 pm

Better patent it Frank, otherwise you have no recourse lol, I was just going to say I think we are the only ones who made up the cool name of godzilla, did not realize you did it so long ago you were a wee teen then : )
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:40 pm

Devsman and all in the long range thread I posted the 19z gfs was about 150 miles s & e of the euro shocker it will come a round

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:47 pm

@amugs wrote:Devsman and all in the long range thread I posted the 19z gfs was about 150 miles s & e of the euro shocker it will come a round

They're running the GFS at 19z now too? Silly considering they have an 18z

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:51 pm

00z gfs is not impressed with Thursday. Just 1-2 inches of snow. It's not digging the northern stream energy like the EURO. I do kinda like the CMC for this right now.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 02, 2015 10:54 pm

UKIE shows a benchmark storm on Thurs.
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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:00 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Alex Dude!!  Great Write up man!!  That was like all growed up.  And yes I used growed up.  It was not autocorrected.  In all seriousness that is a great write up.  It's going to be fun to watch you get your learn on and see it translate on here.  That is unless you get all Cantore on us and become big time and forget about us.

haha thanks Scott! Well I do hope to become the next Cantore, but I will never forget all of you lol. When I'm on TV i'll have to have a rotation schedule with you guys to come cover the storm live with me lol! In the 7 online board I picked up a lot of knowledge from all of you. I owe a bit back lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:05 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:UKIE shows a benchmark storm on Thurs.

Which run?

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:18 am

00z Euro has ticked east actually. Grazing NE
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:13 am

6z nam and gfs looked better at h5 but just brushes the area
Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Nam4km_asnow_us_21
Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? Gfs_asnow_us_12
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:15 am

nws snow map...
Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? StormTotalSnowFcst
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:37 am

Models should start picking up oh this storm today now that the last one is out of herr
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 03, 2015 7:18 am

Euro shifted east but it's still a coastal storm. Cmc trended in that direction. Gfs improved aloft. Still thinking minor event at the moment.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 7:55 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:Devsman and all in the long range thread I posted the 19z gfs was about 150 miles s & e of the euro shocker it will come a round

They're running the GFS at 19z now too? Silly considering they have an 18z

Yes to help save the 18z since it has done so poly they figure wth another run wouldn't hurt. HAHAH bad typing by me once again.

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