Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack?

Euro shifted east but it's still a coastal storm. Cmc trended in that direction. Gfs improved aloft. Still thinking minor event at the moment.

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:Devsman and all in the long range thread I posted the 19z gfs was about 150 miles s & e of the euro shocker it will come a round

They're running the GFS at 19z now too? Silly considering they have an 18z

Yes to help save the 18z since it has done so poly they figure wth another run wouldn't hurt. HAHAH bad typing by me once again.

So this is no longer a possible significant snow like Euro showed yesterday 6+? A little break would be ok with me with a light snow, lol they consider a dusting plowable in yonkers, in fact the plow had his deck down the other night before the supposed major blizzard with dry pavement, why? I dunno.

jmanley32 wrote:So this is no longer a possible significant snow like Euro showed yesterday 6+?  A little break would be ok with me with a light snow, lol they consider a dusting plowable in yonkers, in fact the plow had his deck down the other night before the supposed major blizzard with dry pavement, why? I dunno.

I wouldnt quite say that just yet, but the trend overnight was to a lesser of an event affecting mostly eastern areas.

jmanley32 wrote:Better patent it Frank, otherwise you have no recourse lol...

FWIW - Toho owns all the GODZILLA trademarks and they are pretty protective of them. It would probably be considered a famous trademark, so it would be protected across all goods and services. I'm guessing they don't complain when people use it in a descriptive way though.

Channel 4 already put out a snow map today 1-2 for NJ, NYC and western LI and 2-3 for rest of LI. Al Roker also said that the american model has been the best this winter and the Euro has been unreliable. Huh?

roker looks weird since the weight loss. BTW...12Z Gfs came in more west

A little break would be ok with me 

Jman are you sure you belong on this board with a comment like that.

2004blackwrx wrote:A little break would be ok with me 

Jman are you sure you belong on this board with a comment like that.

Ummm, you talking about asking for a little break? I have been here since 2013 and I believe so, everyone knows what a snow weenie I am. Love the snow, but my back is killing me I have to shovel a new parking spot multiple times a day when I go to meet clients (and when I get home), so more than a two day rest would be okay with me, then bring it on!

devsman wrote:roker looks weird since the weight loss. BTW...12Z Gfs came in more west

came west? GFS barely gives pretty much the whole area a dusting. Maybe west in the ocean but not enough to affect us.

Jman really! a break? you can have your break in April.lol

2004blackwrx wrote:A little break would be ok with me 

Jman are you sure you belong on this board with a comment like that.

Maybe he's the snow killer that Cp's been looking for.
Jman there's no breaks when your a snow weenie. Come on man pull yourself up by the boot straps solider
and fall in. LOL !!!

Okay, bring on 60 inches Thursday hows that!

Moved to banter

Banter thread with this guys please

Yep I said that sroc, forgot where I was : ) so sroc you think this has potential to be a secs?

Just a quick note: 12z GFS Ensembles have an interesting bimodal distribution of 500 hPa clusters for the Thursday event (east of the Mississippi). Take a look:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/12/GFS_12_enUS_H50S_0048.png

The cluster to north would force a much further east solution, but the one to the south would lead to closer track. I don't think it would be close enough for a widespread significant event, but that does go to show that there is still uncertainty with this thing inside of 48 hours.

GFS has trended west by a good 50 miles but still east - let's see where the euro comes in. Need the ridge in the west to pump not flatten out and just from the map here it looks to be doing this but not enough. Need to look at the h5 to see if this is to be

Trend is def to be just offshore enough to not be a huge deal. But waiting till tomorrow morning before I make any kind of definitive statement.

Doc another 50 mile jump and then most of us on this board are in the game for a moderate event. If not we get the polar front with squalls and maybe some interaction with the LP to juice up the front and drop 1-2" maybe 3" on some spots.

Something I noticed with the maps at the 12z GFS look better phased and oriented with 250mb eastern jet streak, the previous runs. Also the northern energy is not on land yet - Jesus could be a sneak attack if it comes together as Alex and Frank so eloquently and in great detailed pointed out in there analysis.

Doc definitely has caught my attention after looking at this now. Dam it I have grades due no time now. ugghhh

The southern and northern jets are getting close enough to each other that this storm still can't be written off. No matter what flakes are probay flying on Thursday from the front.

12z UKMET is in line with the CMC, which are both "snowier" solutions than the GFS. General 1-3/2-4" is looking like a safe bet to me atm.

Not impressed

is this a Wed night into Thursday thing or an all day Thursday even?

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Not impressed

me neither, Euro came in east, was a one run dream.  I guess its still a possibility but I am not holding my breath.

Upper levels not off by much. Will give it till tomorrow