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Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:11 am

So this is no longer a possible significant snow like Euro showed yesterday 6+? A little break would be ok with me with a light snow, lol they consider a dusting plowable in yonkers, in fact the plow had his deck down the other night before the supposed major blizzard with dry pavement, why? I dunno.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:38 am

@jmanley32 wrote:So this is no longer a possible significant snow like Euro showed yesterday 6+?  A little break would be ok with me with a light snow, lol they consider a dusting plowable in yonkers, in fact the plow had his deck down the other night before the supposed major blizzard with dry pavement, why? I dunno.
I wouldnt quite say that just yet, but the trend overnight was to a lesser of an event affecting mostly eastern areas.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:03 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Better patent it Frank, otherwise you have no recourse lol...

FWIW - Toho owns all the GODZILLA trademarks and they are pretty protective of them. It would probably be considered a famous trademark, so it would be protected across all goods and services. I'm guessing they don't complain when people use it in a descriptive way though.
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Post by Fededle22 Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:04 am

Channel 4 already put out a snow map today 1-2 for NJ, NYC and western LI and 2-3 for rest of LI. Al Roker also said that the american model has been the best this winter and the Euro has been unreliable. Huh?
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Post by devsman Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:06 am

roker looks weird since the weight loss. BTW...12Z Gfs came in more west
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Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:23 am

A little break would be ok with me 

Jman are you sure you belong on this board with a comment like that.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:26 am

@2004blackwrx wrote:A little break would be ok with me 

Jman are you sure you belong on this board with a comment like that.

Ummm, you talking about asking for a little break? I have been here since 2013 and I believe so, everyone knows what a snow weenie I am. Love the snow, but my back is killing me I have to shovel a new parking spot multiple times a day when I go to meet clients (and when I get home), so more than a two day rest would be okay with me, then bring it on!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:29 am

@devsman wrote:roker looks weird since the weight loss. BTW...12Z Gfs came in more west

came west? GFS barely gives pretty much the whole area a dusting. Maybe west in the ocean but not enough to affect us.
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:34 am

Jman really! a break? you can have your break in April.lol
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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:45 am

@2004blackwrx wrote:A little break would be ok with me 

Jman are you sure you belong on this board with a comment like that.

Maybe he's the snow killer that Cp's been looking for.
Jman there's no breaks when your a snow weenie. Come on man pull yourself up by the boot straps solider
and fall in. LOL !!!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:56 am

Okay, bring on 60 inches Thursday hows that!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 11:57 am

Moved to banter


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:00 pm

Banter thread with this guys please alien

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:05 pm

Yep I said that sroc, forgot where I was : ) so sroc you think this has potential to be a secs?
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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:09 pm

Just a quick note: 12z GFS Ensembles have an interesting bimodal distribution of 500 hPa clusters for the Thursday event (east of the Mississippi). Take a look:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/12/GFS_12_enUS_H50S_0048.png

The cluster to north would force a much further east solution, but the one to the south would lead to closer track. I don't think it would be close enough for a widespread significant event, but that does go to show that there is still uncertainty with this thing inside of 48 hours.


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:10 pm

GFS has trended west by a good 50 miles but still east - let's see where the euro comes in. Need the ridge in the west to pump not flatten out and just from the map here it looks to be doing this but not enough. Need to look at the h5 to see if this is to be

Update #1: Thursday Sneak Attack? - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:14 pm

Trend is def to be just offshore enough to not be a huge deal. But waiting till tomorrow morning before I make any kind of definitive statement.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:22 pm

Doc another 50 mile jump and then most of us on this board are in the game for a moderate event. If not we get the polar front with squalls and maybe some interaction with the LP to juice up the front and drop 1-2" maybe 3" on some spots.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:28 pm

Something I noticed with the maps at the 12z GFS look better phased and oriented with 250mb eastern jet streak, the previous runs. Also the northern energy is not on land yet - Jesus could be a sneak attack if it comes together as Alex and Frank so eloquently and in great detailed pointed out in there analysis.

Doc definitely has caught my attention after looking at this now. Dam it I have grades due no time now. ugghhh

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:44 pm

The southern and northern jets are getting close enough to each other that this storm still can't be written off. No matter what flakes are probay flying on Thursday from the front.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:45 pm

12z UKMET is in line with the CMC, which are both "snowier" solutions than the GFS. General 1-3/2-4" is looking like a safe bet to me atm.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:58 pm

Not impressed
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Post by mako460 Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:00 pm

is this a Wed night into Thursday thing or an all day Thursday even?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:10 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Not impressed

me neither, Euro came in east, was a one run dream.  I guess its still a possibility but I am not holding my breath.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:35 pm

Upper levels not off by much. Will give it till tomorrow

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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