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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:08 am

I also posted this on my FB page so I describe certain aspect in a way that hopefully those with very limited weather knowledge can understand what am trying to say.  This potential is basically coming in two parts. Round one begins on Sunday into late Sunday night. Friday into Sat an arctic frontal boundary will set up somewhere to the south of LI setting the stage for round one. Exactly where this arctic front sets up (which eventually affects round two) will dictate who sees what and how much we get. The first image is the GFS model showing this frontal boundary. A series of weak low pressure(LP) will ride along this front. Winds around LP travel in a counter clockwise direction. Cold air is more dense than warm air. So as the weak LP travels along the front the southwest winds ahead of it pulls warm moist air from the south. As it reaches the arctic boundary the warmer air is forced to ride up and over top of the cold air on the surface along the boundary. As it rise the air cools, water condenses, and precipitation falls. Where you are with respect to where the boundary is dictates if you see rain, sleet/mix or snow. Right now the global models still have some subtle differences in where exactly the boundary sets up so the snowfall totals though Sunday range from a C-1" to 3-5" for Long Island depending on which model has the right idea. Now keep in mind the energy for round one has not come onshore yet in the west. I expect the models to lock on to a soln tonight into tomorrow afternoon regarding round one.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL <a href=UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL Gfs_pr11" />

The next map(s) is an image(GFS then Euro) of the energy in the atmosphere about 20,000ft above sea level zoomed out a little, but for the same time frame as the surface map above (Midnight Sat into Sunday). All those pretty colors indicate energy (aka vorticity aka spin) in the upper levels. The blue lines I have drawn in are showing you essentially the jet stream which stears all that energy. The first round of precipitation into the area is associated with the area labeld round one and the second round of precip which comes Monday into early morning Tuesday is labeled round two. Take notice that the Jet stream is oriented for the most part West to east. This essentially prevents all those pretty colors from consolidating. The result is lots of energy strung out which leads to the weak areas of LP described above. But that is about to change as we head into Monday time frame.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL <a href=UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL Gfs_z512" />
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL <a href=UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_34" />

This next image is zoomed out further looking at North America, but staying at 20,000 ft in the atmosphere. Time frame is now Monday noon time. What essentially is going to happn for the second round of precip is this. Notice there is a very strong upper level disturbance approaching the west coast near Oregon. This strong disturbance and its counter clockwise winds causes the jet stream to buckle in front of it leading to a strong ridge which in turn leads to the development of a trough along the eastern third of the country. So instead of a mostly west to east based flow as seen above we now have a more north to South flow. This forces all those pretty colors to begin to consolidate. This leads to a stronger LP on the surface for Monday into Tuesday and a second round of precipitation for the area. Again the energy for this second round is even further out in the pacific ocean right now so how it all plays out is still up in the air, and prob wont be known in full detail until later in the weekend. Each model has this low pressure at different intensities and different location which has huge implications on who sees what type of precip and how much.  I prob wont issue a snow map until tomorrow afternoon the earliest.  Very cool set up here with a lot of working parts.  
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL <a href=UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL Gfs_z513" />

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Post by Taffy Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:23 am

Thanks Sroc...That helped me a lot.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:24 am

What a great write up sroc I enjoy reading your analysis. Puts things into perspective
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:27 am

Thanks both

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:32 am

Nice!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:50 am

Good explanation, 06z GFS came in with a very nice snowfall for most, been pretty consistent had it has no p-type issues. Last nights euro was awesome but I will leave that for banter thread for now.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:04 am

Gfs is the most progressive with the second round so the LP is weaker and more strung out. It has a cold bias, a progressive bias and it tends to under est QPF. I expect it to trend stronger and wetter as we head into Sunday.

The CMC is the strongest and warmest. Given the positioning of the PV and strength of the HP to the North I expect this to trend much colder than what we saw over night. The intensity although prob overdone is something I keep a close eye on.

As is usual I think the Euro is closest but still will change. Right now I think all three models still don't know exactly what to do with all the energy. Ie where to place it as it consolidates. The key really as Frank has eluded to is the ridge on Monday. Keep in mind if the ridge trends more amplified and more of the energy can consolidate the surface low it creats will prob explode. The SST are still very warm off the coast so extra fuel for the fire that is usually not modeled well.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:13 am

Last nights CMC sroic came in pretty dry except way north, the LP missed us as does the Euro, but the Euro has snow before the LP, which gives us a good amount, I can only imagine if the LP does it us what we would be buried under after all this if it all fell into place, and yeah I did note last night all pro mets are jumping on this "long duration snowfall" as one channel said, have not seen that in a long time or every that I can remember. Temper enthusiasm though as from reading above a lot has to fall into place. Lots of work today will be back on later.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:32 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Last nights CMC sroic came in pretty dry except way north, the LP missed us as does the Euro, but the Euro has snow before the LP, which gives us a good amount, I can only imagine if the LP does it us what we would be buried under after all this if it all fell into place, and yeah I did note last night all pro mets are jumping on this "long duration snowfall" as one channel said, have not seen that in a long time or every that I can remember.  Temper enthusiasm though as from reading above a lot  has to fall into place.  Lots of work today will be back on later.

Keep in mind that what I think ends up happening will NOT be based off of what one model, or what one run shows verbatim. There are aspects of the CMC that I agree with..the warmth and positioning of the precip is not one of them

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Grselig Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:32 am

@sroc4 wrote:Gfs is the most progressive with the second round so the LP is weaker and more strung out.  It has a cold bias, a progressive bias and it tends to under est QPF. I expect it to trend stronger and wetter as we head into Sunday.

The CMC is the strongest and warmest. Given the positioning of the PV and strength of the HP to the North I expect this to trend much colder than what we saw over night. The intensity although prob overdone is something I keep a close eye on.

As is usual I think the Euro is closest but still will change. Right now I think all three models still don't know exactly what to do with all the energy. Ie where to place it as it consolidates. The key really as Frank has eluded to is the ridge on Monday. Keep in mind if the ridge trends more amplified and more of the energy can consolidate the surface low it creats will prob explode. The SST are still very warm off the coast so extra fuel for the fire that is usually not modeled well.

Thanks. Good read. I know I am repetitive, but I appreciate how you explain the different possibilities.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:56 am

Great write up DOc - as always thorough and easy to read and understand. I think the ridge will ampify in the west just MHO here due to the sapling of storms - if modeled correctly the storm/trough behind is a little further spaced than yesterdays run. We'll see

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:17 am

Great write up sroc4. Nice and clear. Thanks

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Post by trainwatcher7 Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:32 am

Trainwatcher7 here,just joined in Jan. What a great write up-very down to earth so that those who are not Mets can understand.Thank you sroc4!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:38 am

Fantastic write-up Scott. The one thing I will say with regards to the possible coastal storm is that trough pushing into the western U.S. is going to bring the ridge rolling east. That's something we ideally do not want to see as it would push the main axis of the eastern trough offshore, leading to a storm track out to sea.

The timing of the Pac. trough is key to the coast.

The overrunning event looks like more of a sure thing - just determining for who at this point.

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Post by keliza52 Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:39 am

That was great and easy for me to understand. Can't wait. Thank you!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:19 am

12z GFS does not have the coastal but the overrunning event looks pretty nice beginning Sunday morning and lasting into Monday morning. There is a time when CNJ and maybe even NYC see warm 540-thickness and then warm 850mb. That's why snow maps may not be as impresive (except the ones that count snow as sleet/ice).

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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:25 am

overrunning can put down lots of snow and its a long event!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:26 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS does not have the coastal but the overrunning event looks pretty nice beginning Sunday morning and lasting into Monday morning. There is a time when CNJ and maybe even NYC see warm 540-thickness and then warm 850mb. That's why snow maps may not be as impresive (except the ones that count snow as sleet/ice).

It doesn't, but it might have hinted at it with what looked to be some sort of deformational band setting up over eastern PA for a short while at the end. Also, the area of low pressure off the coast looked to be slightly more west than 00z. I could be seeing things that I want to see, too lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:28 am

I do not see the coastal event coming to fruition at this juncture. I need to see much better improvement in the western ridge, or better consolidation of H5 energy at the mid-level trough.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:30 am

Pac trough looked slight further East ever so slight.  And the ridge was def less amplified than 6z and 00z..end result is less consolidation in Eastern trough and no coastal

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:39 am

all of the s/w on the 12z were stronger than 6z. wouldn't you think at some point they try to consolidate.
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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:40 am

the problem the way it looks now is where that front sets up and how far north rain snow line is! the places that stay snow should do well.

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:50 am

Upton recent statement

PERIODS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TOTAL OF 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:57 am

@algae888 wrote:all of the s/w on the 12z were stronger than 6z. wouldn't you think at some point they try to consolidate.

See my post above Al.  This is the time frame when not to panic and not to start model hugging folks.  Look at everything with a grain of salt.  Sampling is still suspect.  There is no doubt the idea trending away from the coastal can cont.  The ridge in the west will be key to that.  Just be patient between now through Sat when looking at models for Monday into Tuesday.


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:58 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:58 am

@sroc4 wrote:Pac trough looked slight further East ever so slight.  And the ridge was def less amplified than 6z and 00z..end result is less consolidation in Eastern trough and no coastal

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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