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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:08 am

TWC now has 'showers' for entire event. Ok. What's the next one? Lol
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:52 am

sign. south shift on precip shield for sat on rgem from 00z to 6z. gives us about an inch on sat.
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12
6z
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14
00z.
also 6z gfs was a little south also. with current air mass very cold and a nice snowpack thinking trends today will move south. it is going to be hard to push out this cold air.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:58 am

6z gfs snow map
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Gfs_asnow_us_19
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:03 am

Going to wait until after the 12 z's come in to put out a blog, but I am pretty confident in what I am seeing that this cont to trend our way producing more snowfall than what most are thinking right now.  We are still prob going to have some mixing issues around the NYC latitude +/- 15 miles but we will get ours.

Remember this is a blue collar winter for most of us.  We have had to scratch and claw for our totals, but they just keep adding up.  Take a look at my totals for the season below in my signature.  Yup up over 31".  That is absolutley in fact above avg, and we are not done by any stretch.  I am actually confident I see at least 45" for the season.  If you told me on Thanksgiving that by Feb 6th I would be at 31" with a month and a half left to go I would sign on the dotted line.  So why does it seem so disappointing?   For me at least it is the way in which we have received our totals is what makes this above avg annual snowfall total seem so frustrating.  Every storm since about Jan 15-20thth starts out by looking incredible with wide spread 6-12+ in the medium range only to have those weenie dreams crushed by models who trend far far away from that weenie dream as close as within 24-48hrs of the storm.  In reality though the trend has been that the cold air does push back more than what models show during now casting, and our crashed expectations are somehow miraculously revived by what is now perceived as an overachieving system even though it is a fraction of what the weenie dream was not 1-2 days prior.  For Long Island at least this past Monday case in point.  

Skins and Ace unfort for you guys your latitude falls right on the precipice of recovery from the described sequence above.  I know for you guys the described reality above probably falls a bit short.  

I am growing confident in what Im seeing that although most of us do not approach our weenie dream expectation of the penthouse for this system, since our expectations have crashed back into the basement, the reality will bring us back up stairs to at least the first floor if not the second from NYC +/- 15 miles or so.  
See you all after the 12's

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:10 am

Sroc, your giving me hope again about this event. Local mets in my area didn't really say much about it.
I guess they want to wait a little longer to see how the models handle things.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:13 am

Just remember to keep expectations tempered. For most we are not talking blockbuster here. I may put out a first call map this afternoon.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:14 am

Like that description, Doc. A ham and egg winter.

Nice observation on the pattern with the models.Expectations crash just prior to the storm but then it comes across at nowcast time.

Will be interesting to see the 12's.
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:19 am

Good morning Doc. I was about to say I'M OUT like they do on Shark Tank on this event, but the good ole Doc has given me a little hope that we may do OK with this one after all.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:23 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Doc. I was about to say I'M OUT like they do on Shark Tank on this event, but the good ole Doc has given me a little hope that we may do OK with this one after all.

Hey, buddy, it IS a good morning because I woke up!

Yep, the Doc is seeing something good here.Still haven't fixed my temperature sending unit buried in nearly 2 feet of snow.Don't have boots to go tramping around out there.I'm a real lazy arse these days,LOL.

We'll see how Frank ,rb, and Mugs weigh in on today's model runs.
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:28 am

Doc, WHAT DO MEAN YOU DON'T HAVE BOOTS and you live in the Hudson Valley !
I'm going to have to start a thread to collect some money from our other members to get you a pair of boots.
Hopefully this will trend South and give all our members a little something.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:44 am

LOL.

Yep, hoping for a southward drift to get the CNJ, LI and shore folks in on the fun.It's possible, not a lot of distance.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 06, 2015 8:32 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:Doc, WHAT DO MEAN YOU DON'T HAVE BOOTS and you live in the Hudson Valley !
I'm going to have to start a thread to collect some money from our other members to get you a pair of boots.
Hopefully this will trend South and give all our members a little something.

I hereby pledge $10 to the Docstox boots fund.

Snowman the problem here is Doc has become lazy because he knows with me living 5 miles away he can rely on me for accurate measurements and temperature. By the way we set our new seasonal low this morning at -4°.I didn't see a report from you this morning snowman so I'm just assuming you're conceding defeat. By the way this is really for another thread but how come you haven't set foot on OTI since your return?

Nice write up Doc, I never believed this one seven days out, and I never believed the North shift in the last couple days. As a matter of fact this winter I really never believe the models. I listen to you, I listen to Frank I listen to some others on here, I temper my expectations and usually in the end I'm more than satisfied with the results. With over 43 inches on the season so far I'm only about 7 inches below our seasonal norm, and am hoping to reach that by sometime on Tuesday.

The moral of the story is a little twist of wording on one of the phrases in the power of positive thinking, instead of expect little give much, with snowstorms expect little and receive much.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 8:37 am

Current snow cover is fairly impressive across the area. I am hoping models catch onto this and trend cooler. GFS has already done that.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Post-28288-1423217990_thumb

Could be a nice swath of 4-8" type of snows from NEPA/NWNJ to HV.

Still early, we'll see how trends go today

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 06, 2015 8:47 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Current snow cover is fairly impressive across the area. I am hoping models catch onto this and trend cooler. GFS has already done that.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Post-28288-1423217990_thumb

Could be a nice swath of 4-8" type of snows from NEPA/NWNJ to HV.

Still early, we'll see how trends go today

This picture is awesome.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:10 am

Okay folks as Frank said let the south trend commence. The models as I stated last night over corrected and the energy was not even on land as nws stated yesterday that the energy was not in road range for Cole ting data. I feel we have a rain snow line like last time set up near I 80. I am at an all day competition so I will be checking in. I wise old met once said like money makes money, snow breeds snow. Look at the map frank posted and I think we have our answer. I do expect 12z euro to keep this trend going even further. New boots for Doc what size paisan?

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:20 am

@amugs wrote:Okay folks as Frank said let the south trend commence. The models as I stated last night over corrected and the energy was not even on land as nws stated yesterday that the energy was not in road range for Cole ting data. I feel we have a rain snow line like last time set up near I 80. I am at an all day competition so I will be checking in. I wise old met once said like money makes money, snow breeds snow. Look at the map frank posted and I think we have our answer. I do expect 12z euro to keep this trend going even further. New boots for Doc what size paisan?

Size 12.

This is an incredibly wonderful gesture on the part of the site.I am humbled and at a loss for words.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:24 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:Doc, WHAT DO MEAN YOU DON'T HAVE BOOTS and you live in the Hudson Valley !
I'm going to have to start a thread to collect some money from our other members to get you a pair of boots.
Hopefully this will trend South and give all our members a little something.

I hereby pledge $10 to the Docstox boots fund.

Snowman the problem here is Doc has become lazy because he knows with me living 5 miles away he can rely on me for accurate measurements and temperature. By the way we set our new seasonal low this morning at -4°.I didn't see a report from you this morning snowman so I'm just assuming you're conceding defeat. By the way this is really for another thread but how come you haven't set foot on OTI since your return?

Nice write up Doc, I never believed this one seven days out, and I never believed the North shift in the last couple days. As a matter of fact this winter I really never believe the models. I listen to you, I listen to Frank I listen to some others on here, I temper my expectations and usually in the end I'm more than satisfied with the results. With over 43 inches on the season so far I'm only about 7 inches below our seasonal norm, and am hoping to reach that by sometime on Tuesday.

The moral of the story is a little twist of wording on one of the phrases in the power of positive thinking, instead of expect little give much, with snowstorms expect little and receive much.

lol!

It's gotten to the point where I am five words into every post you make mentioning me where I am laughing.

Maybe this is a subconscious, subliminal phenomena that is preventing me from finding my buried transmitter and inserting new batteries.CP's constant campaign to NOOA about the Zookeeper's measurements has me in a state of paralysis in reporting my temperatures lest CP should find fault with ME and start some sort of campaign.With the unit buried in 1 1/2 feet of snow, I can't be blamed for not reporting.See, that was easy.....

And yes, in spite of the ups and owns of the models, we are closing in on average up here with more than 6 weeks of snow time left.Not bad....
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:29 am

@sroc4 wrote:Going to wait until after the 12 z's come in to put out a blog, but I am pretty confident in what I am seeing that this cont to trend our way producing more snowfall than what most are thinking right now.  We are still prob going to have some mixing issues around the NYC latitude +/- 15 miles but we will get ours.

Remember this is a blue collar winter for most of us.  We have had to scratch and claw for our totals, but they just keep adding up.  Take a look at my totals for the season below in my signature.  Yup up over 31".  That is absolutley in fact above avg, and we are not done by any stretch.  I am actually confident I see at least 45" for the season.  If you told me on Thanksgiving that by Feb 6th I would be at 31" with a month and a half left to go I would sign on the dotted line.  So why does it seem so disappointing?   For me at least it is the way in which we have received our totals is what makes this above avg annual snowfall total seem so frustrating.  Every storm since about Jan 15-20thth starts out by looking incredible with wide spread 6-12+ in the medium range only to have those weenie dreams crushed by models who trend far far away from that weenie dream as close as within 24-48hrs of the storm.  In reality though the trend has been that the cold air does push back more than what models show during now casting, and our crashed expectations are somehow miraculously revived by what is now perceived as an overachieving system even though it is a fraction of what the weenie dream was not 1-2 days prior.  For Long Island at least this past Monday case in point.  

Skins and Ace unfort for you guys your latitude falls right on the precipice of recovery from the described sequence above.  I know for you guys the described reality above probably falls a bit short.  

I am growing confident in what Im seeing that although most of us do not approach our weenie dream expectation of the penthouse for this system, since our expectations have crashed back into the basement, the reality will bring us back up stairs to at least the first floor if not the second from NYC +/-  15 miles or so.  
See you all after the 12's

Great post sroc4. I'm at 38" for the season!! Hoping for a 3 to 6" out of Sun night/Monday

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:02 am

This is going to be close. The east-based block is not as impressive as it was a couple of days ago. There was positive heights getting into Greenland, but now the PV is spreading lower heights over the region. You can see the western ridge, but notice the trough coming ashore in the Pac. NW. That is going to send the ridge east and possibly flatten it out. This is why I am not a believer in the coastal right now. It's imperative we get the overrunning in our favor if we're seeking snow early next week.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Gfs_z500a_namer_13

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:03 am

The 6z GFS was nice looking, but notice how far north the 1030mb HP is. We definitely want to see that further south in future runs

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Gfs_z500_mslp_namer_13

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Post by emokid51783 Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:27 am

Frank, is it just me or if the 1030 high makes its way about 50-100 miles south doesn't it create a path for the coastal storm to develop? (In conjunction with the 1022).

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:29 am

@emokid51783 wrote:Frank, is it just me or if the 1030 high makes its way about 50-100 miles south doesn't it create a path for the coastal storm to develop? (In conjunction with the 1022).

No, that would just help bring the temp. gradient further south. It's likely a coastal low will develop, but with the way the west looks I would think it stays out to sea.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:35 am

I honestly don't see the location of the baroclinic region trending favorably this time. It's so close to begin with, any sort of circulation will perturb it to the warm side ahead of it. Add that to the recent trend of the high being located further north, like you mentioned above Frank, and we have a setup for disappointment. I truly hope I'm wrong and we see a trend go the other way for once, but I don't see it happening this time.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:38 am

Well if you do not expect( which I am not banking on now) I will not be disappointed, I suggest others also do the same, its not looking like it was at the beginning of the week. If it pays the awesome.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:48 am

New England is going to get buried Saturday-Monday. Easy Roidzilla for them.

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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

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