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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:29 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Wait frank that's a 102 hr snow map, 1st warning lol you broke ur rule of under 96 hrs lol, although that aint no fantasy map lol

crap, haha

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:35 am

This not a good trend if it becomes one.  Note 78 hrs frank 78 hrs lol. Pretty sure this isn't anyones fantasy though, not the ice anyways.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 7 Ice11


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:54 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by emokid51783 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:37 am

Gut feeling is HP comes south and it stays colder. Looking at this trend I wouldn't be surprised it it sets up camp in upstate new york, keeping Montreal out of the Jackpot Wink

#coldtrend

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:38 am

Jman, you forgot to use #coldtrend

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:41 am

@jmanley32 wrote:This not a good trend if it becomes one.  Note 72 hrs frank 72 hrs lol. Pretty sure this isn't anyones fantasy though, not the ice anyways.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 7 Ice11

Yawwwwwwwn.




#coldtrend :-p
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:47 am

#Coldtrend come on cold
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:55 am

yes of course if 850's trend colder and the surface stays then we are good #coldtrend lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:57 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:This not a good trend if it becomes one.  Note 72 hrs frank 72 hrs lol. Pretty sure this isn't anyones fantasy though, not the ice anyways.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 7 Ice11

Yawwwwwwwn.




#coldtrend :-p

won't be yawn driving if that ice happens, and its 78 hrs opps I edited it in the original post, but yeah not a fun run and CMC is even worse, less qpf and really not much of anything zzzzzz
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:12 pm

The one thing that I must say, is that in looking at the 12z GFS Ensembles, the Operational IS AN EXTREMELY WARM OUTLIER TO ITS OWN ENSEMBLE. That's interesting.

#coldtrend #thelittlestormthatcould

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:13 pm

I'll be back this evening to check in. Good vibes everybody, good vibes Very Happy

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:21 pm

@rb924119 wrote:The one thing that I must say, is that in looking at the 12z GFS Ensembles, the Operational IS AN EXTREMELY WARM OUTLIER TO ITS OWN ENSEMBLE. That's interesting.

#coldtrend #thelittlestormthatcould

#coldtrend #thelittlestormthatcould

It thinks it can, it thinks it can, it thinks it can
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:30 pm

EUROOOOOOOO. Where you at?! #coldtrend #trendcold #coldcold #trendtrend #FORTHELOVEOFGOD
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:41 pm

#coldtrend #thelittlestormthatcould

I thought the 12Z GFS was a nice improvement, but what do I know. If the Euro trends south and colder we may see Mets start backtracking on last nights downgrades.

As Yogi said, It aint over, till it's over.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:51 pm

If the recent trends are an indication of a cold trend, it's a good example of how we can get a snowier solution in our area without relying on where the Saturday wave sets up. A surface low developing further south due to the stronger HP/confluence to the north is another way of getting the temp. gradient further south,

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:05 pm

Euro not looking good out to hr 48, everything way north.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:08 pm

looks better at 66 hrs, precip light coming into area
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:11 pm

looks like ice storm for NYC and suburbs on Euro.
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:30 pm

in a way i think this storm will be like the last one ice and rain around i-95 and near suburbs and snow more likely north of 287 some mixing and snow north of 84 its like a train that keeps following the same track!

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:50 pm

euro 30-40 miles south of gfs. ice storm for philly c/nj. ice to snow nyc and mostly snow white plains on north. this is for Monday Monday night. low exits near dc. 3-6" nyc and 1-3" south of there. .5qpf for nyc. any way you look at it colder models runs today. good trends. i'm sure we have not seen final solution yet. my guess a similar storm to Monday with out all that backend snow.
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Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:50 pm

Can somebody post the Euro at hr 72?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:05 pm

@algae888 wrote:euro 30-40 miles south of gfs. ice storm for philly c/nj. ice to snow nyc and mostly snow white plains on north. this is for Monday Monday night. low exits near dc. 3-6" nyc and 1-3" south of there. .5qpf for nyc. any way you look at it colder models runs today. good trends. i'm sure we have not seen final solution yet. my guess a similar storm to Monday with out all that backend snow.

Yeah no 10 inches again I doubt for us Al. Do not recall so many ice threats in years.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:23 pm

The trend continues then more south as per the euro maybe it's not over yet.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:28 pm

I love this, every storm is like a spin of the roulette wheel. Who knows where it stops.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:29 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:The trend continues then more south as per the euro maybe it's not over yet.

yep remember Monday, it snowed hard overnight, and overperformed, we did not see this until last minute.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:euro 30-40 miles south of gfs. ice storm for philly c/nj. ice to snow nyc and mostly snow white plains on north. this is for Monday Monday night. low exits near dc. 3-6" nyc and 1-3" south of there. .5qpf for nyc. any way you look at it colder models runs today. good trends. i'm sure we have not seen final solution yet. my guess a similar storm to Monday with out all that backend snow.

Yeah no 10 inches again I doubt for us Al.  Do not recall so many ice threats in years.

Ice to snow is the worst, you cant even tell there is ice.
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