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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:34 pm

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 9 Stormt10
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:44 pm

docs 6 plus inches in mid-hudson valley i think that will be near you not a slop fest

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:50 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Jman   Thanks    Its scary to see that ice map   I hope if anything it will lead to maybe more sleet

those maps are not sleet, sleet is included in the snow map, I think a ice storm warning is possible this is NWS definition of a ice storm warning:

Ice Storm Warning
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when freezing rain produces a significant and possibly damaging accumulation of ice. The criteria for this warning varies from state to state, but typically will be issued any time more than 1/4" of ice is expected to accumulate in an area.

Frank does mention a ice storm for NYC in his scroll I would like to see his take as we go through the weekend, and even what he and sroc think at this point. Yonkers could be in big trouble, I do not know why or how but they ran out of salt!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:52 pm


NJ I always wondered if Mt. Holly had a ice map,. where did u find this on NWS?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:58 pm

FWIW the 18z GFS Op looks the same as the 12z, but considering that the 12z Op was an extremely warm outlier to its own ensemble, it's very possible that the 18z Op may end up being that way as well. We'll have to see.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:

NJ I always wondered if Mt. Holly had a ice map,. where did u find this on NWS?
Its right next to their snow map under winter weather.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:02 pm

15z SREFs came in MUCH colder than 09z. Wow. Time will tell, I guess lol

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:07 pm

@jimv45 wrote:docs 6 plus inches in mid-hudson valley i think that will be near you not a slop fest

Hope your right, Jim, but don't like this trend from all snow earlier.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:11 pm

GFS is coming in with ALOT of frz, not good
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:00 pm

@aiannone wrote:LOL Janet. Here is TWC's map. I think that should say through Monday
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 9 10421310

And you trust this?

That map their showing had NYC in 8-12 2 days ago. What makes you think it will verify now?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:04 pm

@aiannone wrote:And so it begins!!
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED
 HIGHER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF AN HOUR AT TIMES SUNDAY
 MORNING AND MONDAY.


* TIMING...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
 CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW LIKELY
 AT TIMES.

Alex, your putting your faith in a forecast that says snowfall rate up to half an hour. If they can't type I doubt they can interpret the weather patterns.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:06 pm

EPAWA just released their first call map for Sunday/Monday. Can't post map (on my phone) but it shows NYC in 2-4" snows after .1-.25" ice accretion.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:12 pm

I've got this weird feeling models at 00z are gonna be muuuuuch different. Dunno, just do. #coldtrend
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:17 pm

Replica of last week's storm so far the way this could be unfolding. Two notable differences:

1. This storm looks colder
2. It's a weaker system so not as much precip. involved

With the ridge collapsing, I can see why this is a weaker wave. No phasing and deamplified trough.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:49 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:EPAWA just released their first call map for Sunday/Monday. Can't post map (on my phone) but it shows NYC in 2-4" snows after .1-.25" ice accretion.
Snow over ice worst possible way
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Post by oldtimer Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:09 pm

Would that be the back end of storm Monday afternoon??

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 06, 2015 8:22 pm

TWC calls for my area to get rain before switching over to snow totals of 2-4". Wunderground's calling for rain changing over to 2-6" of snow. Accuweather says 4-8 and the NWS office in Binghamton says 10-14" plus .1" ice. At this stage, I'm ready to throw darts at groups of weather possibilities and go with whatever my lack of skill brings me.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:09 pm

Wow SREFS!

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 9 46358581875e455c34de89ff9a472f73

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:17 pm

Srefs leading the way like Juno peeps. Wetter colder and more south watch this trend keep going.

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:19 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:docs 6 plus inches in mid-hudson valley i think that will be near you not a slop fest

Hope your right, Jim, but don't like this trend from all snow earlier.

I don't buy any of it yet fellow HV residents, one way or the other.

I do like the colder trend today. I may even stay up for the 0Z's to see if it continues. I still think the HV can get 8 plus, it's not a done deal either way yet.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:33 pm

We did alright with the last storm in a similar situation so I'd say there is a shot we could have a surprise.Hey, 7 gets us to that HV new average you talked about CP.Never more glad to be up here than this winter.

Frank sees a colder trend and I respect that.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:35 pm

What did you guys get in the last storm last week?

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:What did you guys get in the last storm last week?

We had 11 inches up here all told measured by CP, and you know that was accurate, Frank,LOL!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:45 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:What did you guys get in the last storm last week?

We had 11 inches up here all told measured by CP, and you know that was accurate, Frank,LOL!


Good, I had you all in 8-12 I think. See, CP should have signed my offer.

For this storm I think 8-12 is going to be my call again. Snow map to come out at 11

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:50 pm

You were spot on with that storm, Frank.I think your map was 10 to 15 up here but I am not sure.

I'll sign your form on the spot right now for that in this new storm.Anyway, it's a lot of fun tracking and this is going to be another nowcast hoot.

I'll check on your map tomorrow, heading for the sack.

Later, man.
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