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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:06 pm

12z GFS seemed to trend a bit north with snowfall amounts. Even gives me a nice snowfall in NVT.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:26 pm

@aiannone wrote:12z GFS seemed to trend a bit north with snowfall amounts. Even gives me a nice snowfall in NVT.

Go away

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Post by lglickman1 Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:38 pm

Would it be safe to say that this storm threat isnt too impressive at this time? But may have potential?

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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:40 pm

it depends where you live its going to be good for some but its early.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:52 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:Would it be safe to say that this storm threat isnt too impressive at this time?  But may have potential?

Not necessarily. If the vorticity trends stronger and the period of snowfall is more moderate instead of light, someone will see a Godzilla out of this. As of now, that has not been the trend. Mainly a 3-6/4-8 type of storm so far for NYC Metro. More N&W

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Post by devsman Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:07 pm

this is not banter. Just opinion based on past storms. I think we will see over the next 3-4 runs that this "thing" trends farther north with each passing run until we're left with either little snow to rain...or just plain rain. But like Frank has said...I think president's week will be very fun to watch develop.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:09 pm

Something tells me that the dreaded northward trend is about start rearing its ugly head....

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:12 pm

Yup I do have the same feeling but I was thinking or hoping for it to go the other way for once
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:15 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Yup I do have the same feeling but I was thinking or hoping for it to go the other way for once

Lmao we all are. The law of averages has to win out ONCE, doesn't it? Every storm we've had so far has done this, there has to be at least one that breaks the mold lol

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:16 pm

I think the EURO is about to go "Coastal" on us lol

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:22 pm

It started to, just not fast enough. Definitely closer than the GFS, though.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:25 pm

Interesting EURO run - Saturday into Sunday it takes the 1st wave way north then the second wave comes in and the 32* line on the op is right through or just below NYC cutting NJ in half like last storm - snow moderately if the mid levels stay cold from hour 87 - 117. Philly to CNJ is ice Coast is toast on this but only one run.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:26 pm

The CMC is warm all the way through the lower Hudson Valley now through hour 102 -_-

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:39 pm

@rb924119 wrote:The CMC is warm all the way through the lower Hudson Valley now through hour 102 -_-

The baroclinic zone is trending too far north, even on the latest EURO. It is way north on the GEFS. This is not a good sign and would bring most of us rain or mixed precip again. The Saturday wave is important to this set-up. We need that wave to penetrate as far south as possible so the baroclinic zone shifts south of our area. With the Saturday wave looking north, the baroclinic zone (temp. gradient between cold/warm for those who do not know what that is) is well north of us. By the time the Sunday wave gets going, we may start as snow but once the surface low develops the warm air surges north.

Another way to get the baroclinic zone south of us is if the HP to our north can press down on it. However, the HP also looks a little too far north at this time. Couple that with a western ridge rolling east, and the set-up for the coastal is not impressive. The set-up from the overrunning is ok but could be compromised.


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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:46 pm

just like last storm i see this setting up

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:46 pm

CMC is practically nada for us for the hole event except North of NJ - Cp and Doc have snow and ice.

One thing for sure is CMC puts us in the cryogenic freezer with Walt Disney for next weekend!


Last edited by amugs on Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:47 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:47 pm

I think a lot of the shift has to do with the speed with which the high is being progged to move out. Earlier it was much slower to move, whereas now it's just zipping ahead of the wave of low pressure. The intensity and latitudinal placements look about the same to me.

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:49 pm

Being that this is pretty much the umpteenth consecutive storm that has trended north as the event draws near I think it would be prudent going forward to factor this into all future forecasts.
I know that amongst those close to me and that I work with, who ask me about the snow I keep telling them not to believe the numbers being thrown around until the day before. Seems like a common sense approach with the way the storm threats have evolved all winter. Great anticipation starting out that dwindles and gets pushed north as time draws near.

That's why Frank's new rules make so much sense.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:58 pm

The CAD signature is not as strong as yesterday, the confluence is further N .
N of 80 this still hangs tough . S of the city fading .

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 05, 2015 2:37 pm

Cold air presses back. We shall see

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 05, 2015 2:57 pm

The fact that Frank removed the threat from banner says it all....Onto the next one, but still hoping things change. A lot of mets jumped on this too early it looks like.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:03 pm

Euro ensembles say not so fast......showing support for coastal development like the Op did.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The fact that Frank removed the threat from banner says it all....Onto the next one, but still hoping things change.  A lot of mets jumped on this too early it looks like.

Lol, I did not mean to do that. I had 2 scrolls up there marked as the same title so I deleted both accidentally. It's hard on mobile. This threat is still alive, but the trends today have been "ok"

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Post by emokid51783 Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:05 pm

Let's take the nooses down so far people. It's a complicated set up, and when all the energy gets on shore it can actually get modeled properly. There's enough cold air in place that it can certainly make it down through NYC

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:15 pm

@emokid51783 wrote:Let's take the nooses down so far people. It's a complicated set up, and when all the energy gets on shore it can actually get modeled properly. There's enough cold air in place that it can certainly make it down through NYC

Well, the cold is there to a certain extent. The problem we're seeing again is the surface low maturing to our south and west which raises heights along the EC. There's plenty of confluence to our north to prevent a cutter, but the initial rise in heights pushes the temp. gradient north too. We need the 1st wave on Saturday to track further south or for the HP to our north to press south.

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