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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:19 pm

Models may have over corrected today in the 12z and 18z runs. The energy isn't even on land time will tell not throwing this out until 12z Saturday. We have seen this before and everybody jumps ship along with a bad model run or trend 80 hrs plus outside if the event. There is still time and lets all hope the euro verifies from even today's runs 12z run. Hey 0z run would be great. We shall see but I still have hope and some faith climo will help out as well.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:32 pm

0z Nam is a torch lol
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:33 pm

Sunday night into Monday is what I am referring to in my above post.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:42 pm

So we went from a CNJ jackpot to a Montreal, CA jackpot lol
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Sfc_pc10
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:47 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:cp doc looks good for us have feeling this will move south a bit!!

I agree Jim, still 3 days away and most sampling isn't even on land yet. If it doesn't go our way it's Alex's fault.

I'll take the blame, which will feel pretty crappy, but then i'll get my 8-10" of snow and be happy again :p. And no, I would never transfer to Stony Brook lol. The program is too good here!

I went to SUNY Albany, and if you ever feel like transferring or going for your Masters, GO THERE lol Best group of people I've ever met, professors included.

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:48 pm

the way things are going sunday could end up sunny and near 50.
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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:52 pm

Its the nam enough said.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:52 pm

@algae888 wrote:the way things are going sunday could end up sunny and near 50.

Yeah this is so utterly ridiculous and pathetic that it's amusing at this point lmao

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:58 pm

@algae888 wrote:the way things are going sunday could end up sunny and near 50.

It was yesterday that DT pointed out a north trend where DC was sunny and mild. Since this was still several days out, I thought "hmmm, if this north trend continues, we'll be in the sunny and mild region." I guess that may very well happen...

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Post by Abba701 Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:51 pm

What does the 0z nam say?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:53 pm

@Abba701 wrote:What does the 0z nam say?

Very warm. 50 degree weather.

00z GFS looks pretty warm, too. Waiting for run to finish

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:57 pm

00z GFS looks colder than 18z in my opinion.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:58 pm

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:01 pm

NYC is on the line (shocker) between snow and freezing rain. Maybe 3-6 inches of snow this run

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Abba701 wrote:What does the 0z nam say?

Very warm. 50 degree weather.

00z GFS looks pretty warm, too. Waiting for run to finish

Nam isn't as warm as you think. Max temp is 38-40* and they quickly fall down to 32-33 after this brief spike.
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Nam_t210
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:05 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Abba701 wrote:What does the 0z nam say?

Very warm. 50 degree weather.

00z GFS looks pretty warm, too. Waiting for run to finish

Nam isn't as warm as you think. Max temp is 38-40* and they quickly fall down to 32-33 after this brief spike.
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Nam_t210

Well, it's too warm for anything meaningful. Haha

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 10470996_10155173518655344_3718931240620423566_n

And, we all know how I feel about this model.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:08 pm

0z GFS total snowfall....
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:10 pm

Pretty nice run actually. Confluence held on longer and there is a strong vort southeast of the Hudson pressing down on the cold

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:10 pm

Let the south trend commence!!!!

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:20 pm

rgem has some light snow for sat
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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015020600_043
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:20 pm

I just hope this is not February 2nd 2.0

Snow to slop back to snow

That was annoying.

Either rain or snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:21 pm

Maybe that's a good thing and helps keeps the gradient further south. I also think our snowpack will help with the low level cold.

I am getting some positive vibes again with this storm.

Please UKMET/EURO come through tonight.

GGEM is going to be warm. It always is.

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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:52 am

FWIW, the 0Z GGEM gives us little to no snow through mid week next week.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:45 am

Wow, these models are cracking up!

NWS still has me for snow Sat through Tues AM, but they don't mention 8+ inches like in earlier statements.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:53 am

Looks like their is no big HP to push this south
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