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UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:46 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:YAY
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Btv10

What town in that map is your college near Alex?

Just north of St. Johnsbury.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:46 pm

18z Not A Model
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Usa_as16
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:49 pm

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LAST 24 HOURS OF NORTH/COLDER TREND? DONE IN ONE FREAKIN RUN????

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:49 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z Not A Model
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Usa_as16

According to that, it's a complete miss for most of us in terms of snow.

But who cares what it says, it's only the..... you know.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:49 pm

Upton went colder.....OUCH
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt16
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt17
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:57 pm

@aiannone wrote:Upton went colder.....OUCH
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt16
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt17

Yawn Yawn YAWWWWN. Even with the last storm, we had the biggest potential I've seen in 5 years to see big ice accretions and it just does not come to fruition, at least here in the city. I am officially white flagging this event. Boston = Bullseye. I am more excited about Thursday's light snow and the BES next weekend. What a Face
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:57 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:YAY
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Btv10

What town in that map is your college near Alex?

Just north of St. Johnsbury.

Wow you are up there. That's a whole different world weather wise.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:58 pm

@aiannone wrote:Upton went colder.....OUCH
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt16
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt17

Well well well. This is def at the now cast time guys. Look at the HRRR tomorrow night. It has done a great job with the last few events inside 18hrs

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:08 pm

Winter storm warning for duthess county 8 to 16 expected

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:16 pm

NWS Upton:
THE FORECAST DILEMMA MUCH LIKE IT WAS NEARLY A WEEK AGO IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND PTYPE. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER WITH THE INTERIOR LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY SNOW EVENT...WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE A A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE WITH A SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES...PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WATCH INLAND AND ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS AT THE COAST WITH THE HWO. IN ADDITION...QPF AMOUNTS LOOK MARGINAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA. FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS INLAND MAY APPROACH 6 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES AT THE COAST AND UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:19 pm

Trended colder here. Still a watch but anywhere between 4 to 10 inches of snow.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:24 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Upton went colder.....OUCH
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt16
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt17

Well well well.  This is def at the now cast time guys.  Look at the HRRR tomorrow night.  It has done a great job with the last few events inside 18hrs

Loving the trend here.

I was just thinking a minute ago, no matter what happens this storm I'm not gonna let it bother me. I've got almost two feet of snow on the ground, it's gray, cloudy, and beautiful right now just like winter is suppose to be, so why not be content with what I have. Two minutes later Alex posts the upgraded map. It's the power of positive thinking at work. Scroo the Not A Model, I don't think any weather service even pays attention to it anymore.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:30 pm

Agreed

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:31 pm

Exactly CP! THIS is winter.There was a good burst of heavy snow to freshen up the snowpack, slate grey skies, cold temp.Forecast trends going our way.Could be on our way to 6 to 8 inches here.

No complaints from me!
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:46 pm

GFS is further south so far.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:54 pm

GFS looks good.


Last edited by snow247 on Sat Feb 07, 2015 5:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:55 pm

18z GFS Snow Map
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Usa_as17
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:59 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z GFS Snow Map
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Usa_as17

So close for the city to cash in!
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 07, 2015 5:14 pm

Sooooooo close. Sitting on the 5-8/8-12 line. Hoping for a 20 mile shift south or maybe 2 degrees colder than predicted.

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Post by lglickman1 Sat Feb 07, 2015 5:25 pm

So close yet so far away, we'll what happens

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 5:46 pm

I could see a this past monday storm again, I got 10 inches just biordering the bronx NY. We were supposed at this time out get far less. I will take that in a heartbeat, even 6 is better than nothing, NWS of 2-3 IMO is too low.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:05 pm

18z RGEM is way colder. Keeps the 0*C at 850 hPa basically along I-80 Very Happy #COLDTREND

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:07 pm

12z:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020712/rgem_T850_neus_16.png

18z:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020718/rgem_T850_neus_14.png

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:08 pm

18z RGEM. Still more snow after this, especially over NE....
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Rgem_s10
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:11 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z RGEM. Still more snow after this, especially over NE....
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Rgem_s10

Yeah, there is still like literally half of the event yet to go after this run lmao

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