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UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again

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UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Empty Re: UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:06 am

The forum no longer recognizes "that" model as a word.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:09 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The forum no longer recognizes "that" model as a word.

So you changed it to say something else lol Talk about putting words in somebody else's mouth lol Clever, very clever ahahaha Well played, Frank; very well played. I didn't even know that was possible ahaha

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:21 am

Jeeze The Not a Model, saved the computer some work there, shows frz for much of tristate southern region including NYC from hrs 39-roughly 60, thats some seriously bad news, but again is Not a Model showing this lol
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:51 am

12z gfs is south with low and colder at 850 up to hr 42. problem is there is hardly any precip yet
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:56 am

850s are sign colder this run hr 54 all the way to rt 78.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:57 am

@algae888 wrote:850s are sign colder this run hr 54 all the way to rt 78.

Love the cold trend, now we need the precip.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:58 am

hr 48
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:59 am

The uNot A Modeled model has been picking up on this the last two runs.

All hail the uNot A Modeled model

Wow Frank I can't even post u n a m e d model either. Look what it did above.

You really do hate that model.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:00 am

hr 54 do not know how much of that is sleet but my guess is very little
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_us_10
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:03 am

CP that model hasn't picked up on anything. Yesterday at 00z it was warm as heck. Not until 12z today did it correct. GFS has been most consistent, now getting snow down into CNJ. I've been preaching #coldtrend and I think we're finally coming around to it. I'll release a final map to reflect that later tonight.

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:04 am

low down to nc. lol mod snow at this time. one thing to watch over next several runs is if this thing comes up the coast. could def clip eastern areas with more snow. nice trends today. have a feeling upton will increase snow totals throughout area.
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Gfs_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:04 am

RGEM came in warm again.....

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:05 am

Look at what "that" model showed last night at 00z. Surface and 850mb temps as far north as upstate NY. THEY NEED TO TRASH THIS MODEL

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:07 am

total snow fall solid 6" just north of nyc and north. again could have some sleet in there but big improvements
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_us_13
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:08 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:CP that model hasn't picked up on anything. Yesterday at 00z it was warm as heck. Not until 12z today did it correct. GFS has been most consistent, now getting snow down into CNJ. I've been preaching #coldtrend and I think we're finally coming around to it. I'll release a final map to reflect that later tonight.  

Very true Frank.

I'll still never forgive the Not A Model for predicting 50 inches of snow for Orange County the morning of the " 4 inch Blizzard here".
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:08 am

QPF forecast of 1-1.25" *puts a dollar in the collection plate* Keep preaching, Frank. #coldtrend

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:12 am

@TheAresian wrote:QPF forecast of 1-1.25" *puts a dollar in the collection plate* Keep preaching, Frank. #coldtrend
almost 1"qpf for nyc and almost all snow and sleet for nyc and n/w
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Gfs_namer_072_precip_ptot
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:15 am

That's .50 qpf for NYC

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:17 am

GFS qpf

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Gfs_tprecip_nyc_15

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:20 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS qpf

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Gfs_tprecip_nyc_15
and almost all of that from west county line north is snow
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:21 am

If the GFS is right looks like ZI could be looking at 5-7 inches, maybe even WSW if its not that long duration which at this time does not look to be the bulk of it all at once, ice threat has died off on that run too giggity.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:22 am

@algae888 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS qpf

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 2 Gfs_tprecip_nyc_15
and almost all of that from west county line north is snow

Snowing now Al, maybe half a foot for us maybe more if it over performs, this has been a great 48 hour trend #coldtrend
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:28 am

So no model here just good ole fashion intuition.

Long Island has overperformed EVERY storm since Frank's January 24th pattern change. Now we have a solid 12"+ compacted snowpack and cold air all over the place. I know it's easier to say today with some of the model trends but I would say that we start off with a light mix tomorrow afternoon and evening which goes over to snow around midnight and stays that way thru much of Monday. From the snowpack line north I think we see a solid 4-6" event.(roughly from 78 in central Jersey east northeast to the south fork of LI. ) 1-3" south of that and 6+ due to less initial mixing and higher QPF north of LI. Maybe a bit of a wish cast but you can't overlook what's happened so far and the power of the snow pack in place.
Basically take sroc4's map and shift everything about 15 to 20 miles south.

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:29 am

jman from yesterday I have believed that this storm will be snow where there is a lot of snow on the ground. so if you draw a line from north central pa through the northern 20% of nj through manhatten an north shore of li that's where I think we will see mostly snow. now the question is how much qpf is there.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:31 am

@algae888 wrote:jman from yesterday I have believed that this storm will be snow where there is a lot of snow on the ground. so if you draw a line from north central pa through the northern 20% of nj through manhatten an north shore of li that's where I think we will see mostly snow. now the question is how much qpf is there.  

Well I hope we overperform and GFS def has more qpf this run, snow pack here is easily 1 1/2 feet in spots less in others. easily gonna a dd ainche or so with this heavy burst of snow now. A shift of frank or srocs maps and we are very close if not in the 6-12 : ) giggity.
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