UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again

jman from yesterday I have believed that this storm will be snow where there is a lot of snow on the ground. so if you draw a line from north central pa through the northern 20% of nj through manhatten an north shore of li that's where I think we will see mostly snow. now the question is how much qpf is there.

algae888 wrote:jman from yesterday I have believed that this storm will be snow where there is a lot of snow on the ground. so if you draw a line from north central pa through the northern 20% of nj through manhatten an north shore of li that's where I think we will see mostly snow. now the question is how much qpf is there.  

Well I hope we overperform and GFS def has more qpf this run, snow pack here is easily 1 1/2 feet in spots less in others. easily gonna a dd ainche or so with this heavy burst of snow now. A shift of frank or srocs maps and we are very close if not in the 6-12 : ) giggity.

another thing if we can get some moderate rates of precip I think it would overcome 850's even if they were just above 0*

Question for the map makers.

Is the 1-2 inches some of us saw today included in the final totals on your maps, or was this just an added bonus?

mine was not including Sat Cp

12z UKMET looking nice for northwestern areas, plus it's still showing a lot of precipitation hanging around through hour 72.

CP not including today. I put in the ticker yesterday C-2 inches for today.

Frank_Wx wrote:CP not including today. I put in the ticker yesterday C-2 inches for today.

You nailed today. Thanks

Here is my first call snow map. This is subject to change a bit, but here are my thoughts as of right now. I will make a final one tomorrow with precip. types included.

Not including todays accums.

Nice map snow

A quick observation:

Each storm the last few weeks has trended colder and a tad stronger.

Meteorology over Modelogy - climo wins out - seasonal trends.  Look at how we are correcting - said Thursday night when a few where going to commit hara kari (known as Harry Caray) on here that the models over correct

GEFS!! Sign me up - SNOW I love your map and with the new information out I like what you predict!!



UKIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

IMO, the ice threat for the NYC/LI/NNJ is decreasing and the snow potential is increasing. Have a bit of time off from coursework today and have been looking at data, and I like what i'm seeing for you guys.

aiannone wrote:IMO, the ice threat for the NYC/LI/NNJ is decreasing and the snow potential is increasing. Have a bit of time off from coursework today and have been looking at data, and I like what i'm seeing for you guys.

Thanks Alex and the trend is there for colder just like the past two week storms - have we not learned yet this season??

Last season was a NW trend with almost all storm between Jan 3rd and Feb 13 then they got squashed south.
This year we have had the south and colder trend as we move closer to the actually storm start time and when it happens we trend colder and to the higher end of the snowfall amount forecasts.

Note this when you become a weather expert on NWS or TWC!!

The euro and GGEM look too dry in my opinion. I think UKIE/GFS blend is way to go.

Euro total QPF

Frank_Wx wrote:The euro and GGEM look too dry in my opinion. I think UKIE/GFS blend is way to go.

You can see that there is zero link to the STJ moisture unfort. so hopefully the Atlantic will do the dirty work and enhance precip as the waves of LP reaches the coast:

Doc I think the temp gradient leading to frontogenesis would result in enhanced precip

Central NY to central NE getting their 3rd Godzilla in 2 weeks.

I think there's enough of a south trend to put NYC in some accumulating snow.

Frank_Wx wrote:Doc I think the temp gradient leading to frontogenesis would result in enhanced precip

Ahh True true True

Storm track is not necessarily south, the axis of precip is oriented in a way that gets NYC into the snow.

I believe i am northern sections lol

A GENERAL SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH THE
LOWER TOTALS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IF ALL REMAINS ON
TRACK...BELIEVE NORTHERN PARTS OF WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE TURNED
INTO AN ADVISORY...WHILE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS THE EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

aiannone wrote:

lol and then he tweeted after that saying the GFS has a south trend.

Yea just the GFS though. 1 model run of 1 model isn't a south trend lol

Anybody have the WxBell Euro snow map? Just curious lol

rb924119 wrote:Anybody have the WxBell Euro snow map? Just curious lol

This is at 10:1 so for far northern areas it needs to be doubled....