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UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:33 am

another thing if we can get some moderate rates of precip I think it would overcome 850's even if they were just above 0*
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:05 pm

Question for the map makers.

Is the 1-2 inches some of us saw today included in the final totals on your maps, or was this just an added bonus?
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:07 pm

mine was not including Sat Cp

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:23 pm

12z UKMET looking nice for northwestern areas, plus it's still showing a lot of precipitation hanging around through hour 72.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:26 pm

CP not including today. I put in the ticker yesterday C-2 inches for today.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:CP not including today. I put in the ticker yesterday C-2 inches for today.

You nailed today. Thanks
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:33 pm

Here is my first call snow map. This is subject to change a bit, but here are my thoughts as of right now. I will make a final one tomorrow with precip. types included.

Not including todays accums.

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 3 Firstc12


Last edited by snow247 on Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:37 pm

Nice map snow

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:55 pm

A quick observation:

Each storm the last few weeks has trended colder and a tad stronger.

Meteorology over Modelogy - climo wins out - seasonal trends.  Look at how we are correcting - said Thursday night when a few where going to commit hara kari (known as Harry Caray) on here that the models over correct

GEFS!! Sign me up - SNOW I love your map and with the new information out I like what you predict!!

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 3 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

UKIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:58 pm

IMO, the ice threat for the NYC/LI/NNJ is decreasing and the snow potential is increasing. Have a bit of time off from coursework today and have been looking at data, and I like what i'm seeing for you guys.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:04 pm

@aiannone wrote:IMO, the ice threat for the NYC/LI/NNJ is decreasing and the snow potential is increasing. Have a bit of time off from coursework today and have been looking at data, and I like what i'm seeing for you guys.

Thanks Alex and the trend is there for colder just like the past two week storms - have we not learned yet this season??

Last season was a NW trend with almost all storm between Jan 3rd and Feb 13 then they got squashed south.
This year we have had the south and colder trend as we move closer to the actually storm start time and when it happens we trend colder and to the higher end of the snowfall amount forecasts.

Note this when you become a weather expert on NWS or TWC!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:13 pm

The euro and GGEM look too dry in my opinion. I think UKIE/GFS blend is way to go.

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:20 pm

Euro total QPF
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 3 Ecmwf_11
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The euro and GGEM look too dry in my opinion. I think UKIE/GFS blend is way to go.

You can see that there is zero link to the STJ moisture unfort. so hopefully the Atlantic will do the dirty work and enhance precip as the waves of LP reaches the coast:

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 3 Wv-animated

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:24 pm

Doc I think the temp gradient leading to frontogenesis would result in enhanced precip

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:25 pm

Central NY to central NE getting their 3rd Godzilla in 2 weeks.

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:30 pm

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 3 10961710
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:37 pm

I think there's enough of a south trend to put NYC in some accumulating snow.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:37 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Doc I think the temp gradient leading to frontogenesis would result in enhanced precip

Ahh True true True

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:37 pm

Storm track is not necessarily south, the axis of precip is oriented in a way that gets NYC into the snow.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:38 pm

I believe i am northern sections lol

A GENERAL SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH THE
LOWER TOTALS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IF ALL REMAINS ON
TRACK...BELIEVE NORTHERN PARTS OF WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE TURNED
INTO AN ADVISORY...WHILE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS THE EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:44 pm

@aiannone wrote:UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 3 10961710

lol and then he tweeted after that saying the GFS has a south trend.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:46 pm

Yea just the GFS though. 1 model run of 1 model isn't a south trend lol
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:47 pm

Anybody have the WxBell Euro snow map? Just curious lol

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:51 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Anybody have the WxBell Euro snow map? Just curious lol

This is at 10:1 so for far northern areas it needs to be doubled....
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 3 Ecmwf_12
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