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February 7th-9th Observations

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Post by Taffy Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:25 am

WWA issued * Hazard types...freezing rain...snow...along with some sleet.
* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches...along
with around one quarter of an inch of ice.
36.8 °F
Feels Like 37 °F
N2.0
Wind from NE
Gusts 9.0 mph Ugh!
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Post by Guest Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:26 am

39 degrees here at 10:30 am with filtered sunshine. Way warmer than expected. We may get into low 40's.

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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:03 am

Lyndonville, VT
Temp:6.4*
Obs: Moderate snow
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:05 am

26 and overcast. Winds NW 7. Front south of us.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:27 am

syosnow94 wrote:39 degrees here at 10:30 am with filtered sunshine.  Way warmer than expected.  We may get into low 40's.
not really. the front is south of us. places like white plains on north temps have started to fall. I think nyc metro may rise a degree or two early this afternoon and then start falling before sunset. looking at temp profiles at 11am gives us a hint of where s/r line may set up. ttn-40*, ken. 42* lga 34*, cpk 36*, whpl 33*. Montgomery 29*
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:37 am

Getting torched down here at 47°
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:02 pm

Temp dropping here, down to 36° from 39° at noon

_________________
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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:07 pm

Mix of rain and snow.Roads covered with slush.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:12 pm

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 2 Unname10

A little precip headed east....

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:21 pm

Trying to change to all snow, huge flakes.The battle of the atmosphere has begun here.Cold vs warm.

Radar shows precip building a bit to my S and W.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:27 pm

29 and some light snow.
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Post by cb23 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:30 pm

Snowing in Mahopac and starting to stick

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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:31 pm

11* here with about 3" of new snow from this system so far.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:34 pm

snowing in hopewell jct at 29

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:45 pm

latest hrrr has nyc basically dry through 4am. just a few pockets of fzr at the end of the run
February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 2 Hrrr_east-us_01500_precip_type
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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:46 pm

Ok, guys, so here is an image I created using GEMPAK (it's not exactly how I wanted it, but it will serve to demonstrate):

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 2 Screen10

What you're looking at is all at the 250 hPa (jet level). 250 hPa heights in dam are contoured in the green lines, the magnitude of the jet itself is in the color-fill with the speeds in m/s denoted by the color bar to the left, the barbs indicate the ageostrophic wind in knots, and the various colored contours (in the browns and purples) indicate ageostrophic divergence (solid purple lines) and convergence (dashed brown lines) in units of 1/m. Ageostrophic convergence at this level represents descent, while divergence represents ascent. As you can see from this plot, the values of divergence (solid purple contours) are not very large at all (~2-4) over the Northeast, which means that the synoptic-scale forcing for ascent from the jets is almost non-existent. This is not a good sign if you're looking for big totals because all of your large snowfalls, and weather systems in general, receive a vast majority of their energy from jets, and this is why we saw the models trend drier yesterday. There is forcing from beneath this, by means of weak positive vorticity advection and baroclinic instability, but I do not think it will be enough to really allow enough forcing to occur and provide these outrageous snowfall totals. Just my thoughts, but I would not be surprised if the maximum value of additional snowfall that we hear about from this is in the 6-8" range.

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:47 pm

this may turn into a non event for nyc and south. euro .1-.25 qpf for city entire event
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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:48 pm

36* E10 Cloudy Snow pack shrinking Be happy with 3* at this point lol

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:53 pm

rb then how come no met hasn't picked this up? radar starting to look good north plus alagae88 i do think your right about this thing staying mostly north of nyc.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:54 pm

31.1 mixed snow and sleet.

Down 2.5 degrees in the last hour.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:57 pm

@jimv45 wrote:rb then how come no met hasn't picked this up? radar starting to look good north plus alagae88 i do think your right about this thing staying mostly north of nyc.

I cannot answer this question. It's only an observation and opinion of mine, so I could be entirely wrong, but I just don't see enough synoptic forcing for this to really produce 18" of snow for much of central New England.

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:59 pm

no rb you might be right i get what your saying would no be a surprise!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:06 pm

Nothing but a great sunny day here 45°
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:40 pm

Cloudy out now temp dropped to 40°
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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:47 pm

New BTV MAP...
February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 2 Stormt20
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