February 7th-9th Observations
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Artechmetals
2004blackwrx
le88kb
SNOW MAN
HeresL
cooladi
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goalscore
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Joe Snow
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Math23x7
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dad4twoboys
oldtimer
rb924119
cb23
Taffy
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skinsfan1177
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aiannone
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Dtone
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CPcantmeasuresnow
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docstox12
Fededle22
snow247
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41 posters
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Cloudy out now temp dropped to 40°
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
New BTV MAP...
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
rb924119 wrote:Ok, guys, so here is an image I created using GEMPAK (it's not exactly how I wanted it, but it will serve to demonstrate):
What you're looking at is all at the 250 hPa (jet level). 250 hPa heights in dam are contoured in the green lines, the magnitude of the jet itself is in the color-fill with the speeds in m/s denoted by the color bar to the left, the barbs indicate the ageostrophic wind in knots, and the various colored contours (in the browns and purples) indicate ageostrophic divergence (solid purple lines) and convergence (dashed brown lines) in units of 1/m. Ageostrophic convergence at this level represents descent, while divergence represents ascent. As you can see from this plot, the values of divergence (solid purple contours) are not very large at all (~2-4) over the Northeast, which means that the synoptic-scale forcing for ascent from the jets is almost non-existent. This is not a good sign if you're looking for big totals because all of your large snowfalls, and weather systems in general, receive a vast majority of their energy from jets, and this is why we saw the models trend drier yesterday. There is forcing from beneath this, by means of weak positive vorticity advection and baroclinic instability, but I do not think it will be enough to really allow enough forcing to occur and provide these outrageous snowfall totals. Just my thoughts, but I would not be surprised if the maximum value of additional snowfall that we hear about from this is in the 6-8" range.
I think the duration of the event will allow some places from central NY to southern New England to get a foot or so of additional snow. It may be snowing light to moderate in some places for 24 hours or more. This will allow accumulations to add up.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
35.4 °F
Feels Like 32 °F
N4.0
Wind from ENE
Gusts 10.0 mph
Foggy
Wonderground Weather has ice pellets forecast for me both later this evening and tomorrow. Some sleet, freezing rain and snow also. The ice pellets appear to start around midnight.
Feels Like 32 °F
N4.0
Wind from ENE
Gusts 10.0 mph
Foggy
Wonderground Weather has ice pellets forecast for me both later this evening and tomorrow. Some sleet, freezing rain and snow also. The ice pellets appear to start around midnight.
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
850s and 925s mb temps are crashing down towards NYC and LI now
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Snow - Sleet falling February 7, 2015 started around 2:00pm
Elev 564 ft 41.38 °N, 73.61 °W | Updated 4 sec ago
.
32.0 °F
Feels Like 32 °F
N
0
Wind Variable
Gusts 0 mph
High 35 | Low 21 °F
100% Chance of Precip.
.
Sun & Moon
6:58 AM 5:19 PM
Waning Gibbous, 80% visible
Pressure 29.83 in
Visibility 3.0 miles
Clouds Overcast 900 ft
Windchill 32 °F
Dew Point 27 °F
Humidity 81%
Rainfall 0.04 in
Snow Depth Not available.
UV 0.0 out of 12
Pollen .10 out of 12
Air Quality Not available.
Flu Activity Not available.
METAR KDXR 082053Z 04005KT 3SM HZ OVC009 M01/M03 A2989 RMK AO2 SNE34 SLP125 P0001 60002 T10061033 58004
Elev 564 ft 41.38 °N, 73.61 °W | Updated 4 sec ago
.
32.0 °F
Feels Like 32 °F
N
0
Wind Variable
Gusts 0 mph
High 35 | Low 21 °F
100% Chance of Precip.
.
Sun & Moon
6:58 AM 5:19 PM
Waning Gibbous, 80% visible
Pressure 29.83 in
Visibility 3.0 miles
Clouds Overcast 900 ft
Windchill 32 °F
Dew Point 27 °F
Humidity 81%
Rainfall 0.04 in
Snow Depth Not available.
UV 0.0 out of 12
Pollen .10 out of 12
Air Quality Not available.
Flu Activity Not available.
METAR KDXR 082053Z 04005KT 3SM HZ OVC009 M01/M03 A2989 RMK AO2 SNE34 SLP125 P0001 60002 T10061033 58004
Re: February 7th-9th Observations
30*, moderate snow, sticking to all surfaces
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Sleet here, 34° and falling, should be short-lived though
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Some type of ice precipitation in Wayne. Was coming down pretty good!
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Snowing hard in hopewell jct all over everything.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Rain in the Bronx
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
I've been at 34*-35* here for a while now, and it's been going from rain to snow and back. It's like the weather doesn't know what to do lol.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
currently 35* no precip of any kind tons of melting old crap
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
A slight period of light sleet. It just stopped.
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Temperature now 37 °
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
FWIW, The temperature at Central Park in NYC went up from 34 to 35.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Haha heat island!Math23x7 wrote:FWIW, The temperature at Central Park in NYC went up from 34 to 35.
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
radar very unimpressive the whole state of Pennsylvania has very little precipitation. it's going to be another 6 hours or more before we get into any steady rain or snow. that's for New York City Metro.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Saw that radar also Al.Is this thing coming south?
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
still snowing lightly but docs i think it will fill in from the west and north not suppose to end until tomorrow night.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
The HRRR does not really get this storm going until after Midnight, which judging by current radar makes sense.
I am no longer feeling confident in my 2-4" call for NYC and north shore of LI. I also think the 3-6" call in NNJ may be in jeopardy. Lack of precip. is the reason why. However, at this point I am just going to stick with it and hope the low end of those ranges verify. We'll see how this looks in the morning. Please be careful driving tomorrow morning. There will be ice but not an insane amount. Conditions will be slick.
I am no longer feeling confident in my 2-4" call for NYC and north shore of LI. I also think the 3-6" call in NNJ may be in jeopardy. Lack of precip. is the reason why. However, at this point I am just going to stick with it and hope the low end of those ranges verify. We'll see how this looks in the morning. Please be careful driving tomorrow morning. There will be ice but not an insane amount. Conditions will be slick.
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
The batch of precip I circled in red is what the HRRR is showing come through to the NYC Metro area and points north by 1am or so.
How heavy it is when it gets here will determine snowfall rates. Thinking about 1/2" per hour. Also, will there be any back building? Obviously the more there is the longer the duration of the event.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx
How heavy it is when it gets here will determine snowfall rates. Thinking about 1/2" per hour. Also, will there be any back building? Obviously the more there is the longer the duration of the event.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Looks like the 0* 850mb line is just south of Albany. By the time the precip I outlined gets here I think 850's will be cold enough for most areas north and west of NYC. NYC will be on the line which is why they have the greatest ice threat
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Frank, did you mean Binghamton?
WeatherBob- Meteorologist
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
Probably. Or Poughkeepsie
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
H5 just shows straight east winds. Look how zonal the flow is. No trough, no nothing
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Re: February 7th-9th Observations
The mid-level trough is swinging around Ohio Valley now. You can see it on water vapor
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