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February 7th-9th Observations

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Artechmetals
2004blackwrx
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HeresL
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February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 3 Empty Re: February 7th-9th Observations

Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:51 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Ok, guys, so here is an image I created using GEMPAK (it's not exactly how I wanted it, but it will serve to demonstrate):

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 3 Screen10

What you're looking at is all at the 250 hPa (jet level). 250 hPa heights in dam are contoured in the green lines, the magnitude of the jet itself is in the color-fill with the speeds in m/s denoted by the color bar to the left, the barbs indicate the ageostrophic wind in knots, and the various colored contours (in the browns and purples) indicate ageostrophic divergence (solid purple lines) and convergence (dashed brown lines) in units of 1/m. Ageostrophic convergence at this level represents descent, while divergence represents ascent. As you can see from this plot, the values of divergence (solid purple contours) are not very large at all (~2-4) over the Northeast, which means that the synoptic-scale forcing for ascent from the jets is almost non-existent. This is not a good sign if you're looking for big totals because all of your large snowfalls, and weather systems in general, receive a vast majority of their energy from jets, and this is why we saw the models trend drier yesterday. There is forcing from beneath this, by means of weak positive vorticity advection and baroclinic instability, but I do not think it will be enough to really allow enough forcing to occur and provide these outrageous snowfall totals. Just my thoughts, but I would not be surprised if the maximum value of additional snowfall that we hear about from this is in the 6-8" range.

I think the duration of the event will allow some places from central NY to southern New England to get a foot or so of additional snow. It may be snowing light to moderate in some places for 24 hours or more. This will allow accumulations to add up.
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Post by Taffy Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:55 pm

35.4 °F
Feels Like 32 °F
N4.0
Wind from ENE
Gusts 10.0 mph
Foggy

Wonderground Weather has ice pellets forecast for me both later this evening and tomorrow. Some sleet, freezing rain and snow also. The ice pellets appear to start around midnight.
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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:08 pm

850s and 925s mb temps are crashing down towards NYC and LI now
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Post by dad4twoboys Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:19 pm

Snow - Sleet falling February 7, 2015 started around 2:00pm


Elev 564 ft 41.38 °N, 73.61 °W | Updated 4 sec ago
.
32.0 °F
Feels Like 32 °F
N
0
Wind Variable
Gusts 0 mph


High 35 | Low 21 °F
100% Chance of Precip.
.
Sun & Moon
6:58 AM 5:19 PM
Waning Gibbous, 80% visible
Pressure 29.83 in
Visibility 3.0 miles
Clouds Overcast 900 ft
Windchill 32 °F
Dew Point 27 °F
Humidity 81%
Rainfall 0.04 in
Snow Depth Not available.
UV 0.0 out of 12
Pollen .10 out of 12
Air Quality Not available.
Flu Activity Not available.
METAR KDXR 082053Z 04005KT 3SM HZ OVC009 M01/M03 A2989 RMK AO2 SNE34 SLP125 P0001 60002 T10061033 58004
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:26 pm

30*, moderate snow, sticking to all surfaces
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:44 pm

Sleet here, 34° and falling, should be short-lived though

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Post by sabamfa Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:45 pm

Some type of ice precipitation in Wayne. Was coming down pretty good!

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:52 pm

Snowing hard in hopewell jct all over everything.

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Post by Vinnydula Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:57 pm

Rain in the Bronx
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:05 pm

I've been at 34*-35* here for a while now, and it's been going from rain to snow and back. It's like the weather doesn't know what to do lol.
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:25 pm

currently 35* no precip of any kind tons of melting old crap
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Post by Taffy Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:26 pm

A slight period of light sleet. It just stopped.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:00 pm

Temperature now 37 °
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:02 pm

FWIW, The temperature at Central Park in NYC went up from 34 to 35.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:12 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:FWIW, The temperature at Central Park in NYC went up from 34 to 35.
Haha heat island!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:50 pm

radar very unimpressive the whole state of Pennsylvania has very little precipitation. it's going to be another 6 hours or more before we get into any steady rain or snow. that's for New York City Metro.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:58 pm

Saw that radar also Al.Is this thing coming south?
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:10 pm

still snowing lightly but docs i think it will fill in from the west and north not suppose to end until tomorrow night.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:14 pm

The HRRR does not really get this storm going until after Midnight, which judging by current radar makes sense.

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_nyc_15

I am no longer feeling confident in my 2-4" call for NYC and north shore of LI. I also think the 3-6" call in NNJ may be in jeopardy. Lack of precip. is the reason why. However, at this point I am just going to stick with it and hope the low end of those ranges verify. We'll see how this looks in the morning. Please be careful driving tomorrow morning. There will be ice but not an insane amount. Conditions will be slick.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:20 pm

The batch of precip I circled in red is what the HRRR is showing come through to the NYC Metro area and points north by 1am or so.

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 3 Untitled

How heavy it is when it gets here will determine snowfall rates. Thinking about 1/2" per hour. Also, will there be any back building? Obviously the more there is the longer the duration of the event.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:22 pm

Looks like the 0* 850mb line is just south of Albany. By the time the precip I outlined gets here I think 850's will be cold enough for most areas north and west of NYC. NYC will be on the line which is why they have the greatest ice threat

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 3 850mb

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Post by WeatherBob Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:26 pm

Frank, did you mean Binghamton?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:28 pm

Probably. Or Poughkeepsie

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:30 pm

H5 just shows straight east winds. Look how zonal the flow is. No trough, no nothing

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 3 500mb

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:31 pm

The mid-level trough is swinging around Ohio Valley now. You can see it on water vapor

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 3 Rb-animated

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