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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:37 pm

HOLY CRAP 0z GFS is a torch almost to Albany, NY lol

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:38 pm

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0018.png

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:39 pm

@rb924119 wrote:HOLY CRAP 0z GFS is a torch almost to Albany, NY lol

wow, please tell me you're joking.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:44 pm

@rb924119 wrote:http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0018.png

WTF, nothings easy this winter, but it is interesting.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:44 pm

GFS out to hour 6 on wxbell. Soo slow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:46 pm

RGEM will be in range 12z tomorrow. Till then, it's poop.

00z gfs scares me. Lots of ice

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:48 pm

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f45

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:51 pm

0z GFS total snowfall
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 Usa_as18
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:56 pm

CAD was strong on this run. good icing into NYC/LI/NNJ and coastal CT
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:01 pm

@aiannone wrote:0z GFS total snowfall
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 Usa_as18

That sucks for 99.9% of us lmfao you'll enjoy the bejesus out of it, though :p

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:07 pm

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 281xwuo

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:09 pm

Remember this is only 10:1 ratios, so far northern areas should expect much more.
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 281xwu10
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:09 pm

woah frank. That was weird.
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:10 pm

Jeff smith bad ice around ny city all snow north of 84 looking like last storm.

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Post by Yschiff Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:35 pm

Cmc?

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:37 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Jeff smith bad ice around ny city all snow north of 84 looking like last storm.

I think you're gonna have to go well north of 84 for a pure snow storm this time around. Too much warm air around, unfortunately; I think.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:38 pm

Frank does this significant ice threat include me? On the model runds like RGEM its only .01-.1 GFS .1-.25, some areas show .25-.5, but those areas could move significantly depending on where the ice sets up correct? Are you sticking with .1-.3 or are u thinking possibly higher around here? Also do you think Monday morning will be a impossible commute or possible if slow?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:43 pm

Not thinking more than .30

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Not thinking more than .30

Thats certainly enough to cause travel chaos (lucky I have a sick day if I need to take it), but I do not think we would have to worry too much about downed tree branches, that usually does not happen until its higher than that if I am correct. Hopefully one of these systems can go our way on the coast before the season is right, however I am not totally bummed out we did pretty good so far.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:49 pm

Will this warrent ice storm advisories or warnings, I know the criteria accretion is .25 for that but over how large an area does it need to be, if we have a bad ice storm I think there should be warnings put in place and not just HWO (this is what NWS is saying they are doing for now) which the public will not pay attention to (probably not even see as most people do not go to weather.gov.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:49 pm

Here is my final snow map, I'm thinking this will be mainly snow from Orange/Putnam counties on north and east.

I will change this slightly tomorrow if I have to.

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 2 Finalc12


Last edited by snow247 on Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:00 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:50 pm

NWS doesn't believe in ice storms.

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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:51 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Jeff smith bad ice around ny city all snow north of 84 looking like last storm.

I think you're gonna have to go well north of 84 for a pure snow storm this time around. Too much warm air around, unfortunately; I think.


I'm not sure if that is true RB. The 02/02 storm 850's were progged to be even a little warmer than now and I was expecting some mixing here in Hyde Park(25 miles north of 84) and it was all snow. There is no mention of mixing by NWS Albany either.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:51 pm

Not sure what you mean, I have seen them posted before but usually down south. Thats disconcerting. If anyone has a chance check the off topic section to see what is going on here tonight!
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:53 pm

Rb I think it will be like last storm warm air will never make it as far as some models are predicting. Plus every forcast I have heard say all snow will see.

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