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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:05 am

@hyde345 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Jeff smith bad ice around ny city all snow north of 84 looking like last storm.

I think you're gonna have to go well north of 84 for a pure snow storm this time around. Too much warm air around, unfortunately; I think.


I'm not sure if that is true RB. The 02/02 storm 850's were progged to be even a little warmer than now and I was expecting some mixing here in Hyde Park(25 miles north of 84) and it was all snow. There is no mention of mixing by NWS Albany either.

I hope it changes, but based on the fact that I have snain right now, I live 5 miles from 84 and I'm at an approximate elevation 1800', I'd say it's already warmer than forecast lol

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:07 am

And I had no mixing issues at all last storm either.....

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:08 am

@snow247 wrote:Here is my final snow map, I'm thinking this will be mainly snow from Orange/Putnam counties on north and east.

I will change this slightly tomorrow if I have to.

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 3 Finalc12

Snow I agree wholeheartedly with this Mao said to Frank in an earlier post I think NNJ sees 4-8" if we can stay all snow for a good majority of the storm w hitch is quite possible.

Nws has not updated their forecast since 10:34 am for me still calling for minor snow accumulations and a .1" of ice.
IMO I am expecting no school again this Monday.
The cold is not going to be Sunday and really never was but early AM Mon and all day Mon.
CP and DOC you guys are going to do just fine with this storm.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:08 am

Frank when you say NYC metro you mean manhattan or all surrounding areas ie. NYC metropolitan area, sorry I asked twice but trying to figure out if this will be a big issue for my area or will we see more snow? From what aI have seen verbatim looks like ice.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:16 am

Welp, I'm just going to bed guys and gals and whatever I wake up to tomorrow morning, I wake up to tomorrow morning. There isn't any use in staying up to watch anything when I can't change it lol I hope all of our snow-weenie wishes come true, but if not, on to the next one. 'night all, and happy model watching!!! #coldtrendlivesinourhearts

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:41 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank when you say NYC metro you mean manhattan or all surrounding areas ie. NYC metropolitan area, sorry I asked twice but trying to figure out if this will be a big issue for my area or will we see more snow?  From what aI have seen verbatim looks like ice.

I'm going to expect a difference between us, me future south you might see more white stuff than me but probably add to the same. We can enjoy our slop lol c-1 max 2" if lucky
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:03 am

well ice is not slop its ice, a sheet, we will have to see what falls first and how much. This is going to be another nowcast and almost every storm we have had on a monday has surprised in some way, maybe more white maybe a really bad ice storm. In 24-36 hrs we should have a good idea by then we will be full into it.
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Post by Yschiff Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:04 am

EURO?

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:05 am

00z EURO is still much colder just like earlier runs but continues to be the driest of all models.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:29 am

@amugs wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Here is my final snow map, I'm thinking this will be mainly snow from Orange/Putnam counties on north and east.

I will change this slightly tomorrow if I have to.

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 3 Finalc12

Snow I agree wholeheartedly with this Mao said to Frank in an earlier post I think NNJ sees 4-8" if we can stay all snow for a good majority of the storm w hitch is quite possible.

Nws has not updated their forecast since 10:34 am for me still calling for minor snow accumulations and a .1" of ice.
IMO I am expecting no school again this Monday.
The cold is not going to be Sunday and really never was but early AM Mon and all day Mon.
CP and DOC you guys are going to do just fine with this storm.

Mugs, looking better for me up here than Bergen County at this juncture.They say it starts as a light mix of snow and freezing rain Sunday afternoon, then changes to all snow Sunday around 12 midnight and lasts until Monday night.4 to 8 inches up here which I will be happy to get considering this was looking to change to slop here.Looks like this will be a real mess in the immediate NYC and surrounding areas.
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:10 am

HR 35 of the 0Z RGEM: YIKES!

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 3 Rgem1310

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:30 am

this is really a challenging forecast. models keep shifting 850's ever so slightly north and the south which makes a big difference with precip type. which is why upton lowered snow totals again. i think the main issue here is precip rates. how much qpf we get. today looks mainly dry temps should be above fz. by midnight temps should start falling as precip moves in. probably ice to snow. maybe a little rain to start. cant we get one storm where we know what will happen. any way 06z gfs and rgem are colder and if they stay same or are colder at 12z look for nws to up totals again.
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 3 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:45 am

looking at radar this morning onE s/w is moving east of boston with its precip next s/w is over Minnesota. have a long stretch with no precip.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:54 am

I saw that as well, Al.Don't think this gets cranking until the evening.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:05 am

nws and inaccu wx has my area as mostly ice and less than an 1" of snow. twc has ice going over to snow tom. 2-6" acc.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:06 am

the only thing i'm confident of is that today will be dry.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:31 am

9Z SREFS

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 3 SREF_QPFtotal_ne_f48

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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:33 am

Hey Guys Im sorry I have been so disengaged.  I have to admit Im a bit burnt out.  Balancing the weather, the family, and the business has been a bit much the past few weeks.  The one thing I will say about looking at global models this close is its about as rewarding as watching Lenny tend the rabbits you just cant trust them for the details.  We are no doubt in the short range model, and now cast time.  We are just going to have to watch closely for pressure drops as the LP jumps towards the DelMarva as we go through Monday morning and afternoon; just like last Monday.  I am pretty confident just like last week some areas, but not all, will accumulate more than they anticipate.  The same areas as last Monday apply to that statement; however, the set up is much different for this storm when compared to last week so I don't think it plays out quite the same.  

As far as a final call map I am sticking with my original idea. +/- 15-20 miles between zones 2-4 (N NJ, the lower HV, S Ct, and Points just south of Staten Island) will have the highest volatility attached to the snow and ice forecast; with the northern sections having the greatest chance at over achieving.  All three of those zones will be the areas that "might" need to shift N or S as the storm progresses.  There is also no doubt in my mind that freezing rain and ice will be a problem for many within these same three zones, so be careful when driving Monday.  
[img]Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 3 Final_11[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:49 am

There's some adjustments I could make with my map but they're minor enough that it doesn't warrant a complete change. I'll stick with my final call. Look for rain/freezing rain to move in later this afternoon. Especially northern areas it may get there sooner.

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:05 am

Looks like for the mid-hudson people a good 6-12! I think Hyde your near the 12 doc cp 6 and i am near the middle lets hope for surprises for everyone!

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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:12 am

I'll take that 6 Jim and hope for a little more if the nowcast trend goes our way.

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:18 am

yes sir i agree the storms have surprised us this year so will see!

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:19 am

12Z RGEM continues to show to sustained period of ice for tomorrow.

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Post by Fededle22 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:21 am

With the tight gradient shifts on all your snow maps, it is hard for me to see exactly what I should be expecting from this storm. For the West Orange area do you think 2-3" and then some ice? Just trying to plan ahead and figure out if I should be expecting a snow day for my kids. Thanks for all your help and insight as always.
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Post by Guest Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:24 am

My parents are up in Ulster county NY heading down to the winery I told you about Doc for an afternoon feast. They are expecting 10 to 12" in Walden, NY which is about 8 miles west of Newburgh. My parents up in Olivebridge are forecast for 12 to 16". I'd say you are a lock for double digits Doc, assuming the precip actually moves in. The radar looks sparse right now.

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