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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Fededle22 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:21 am

With the tight gradient shifts on all your snow maps, it is hard for me to see exactly what I should be expecting from this storm. For the West Orange area do you think 2-3" and then some ice? Just trying to plan ahead and figure out if I should be expecting a snow day for my kids. Thanks for all your help and insight as always.

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Post by Guest Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:24 am

My parents are up in Ulster county NY heading down to the winery I told you about Doc for an afternoon feast. They are expecting 10 to 12" in Walden, NY which is about 8 miles west of Newburgh. My parents up in Olivebridge are forecast for 12 to 16". I'd say you are a lock for double digits Doc, assuming the precip actually moves in. The radar looks sparse right now.

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:27 am

snow247 wrote:00z EURO is still much colder just like earlier runs but continues to be the driest of all models.

How much total QPF does euro show for Hudson valley?
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:27 am

Don't know about the double digits,syo, the heavier snow looks like just north of me.CP and I are in the 4 to 8 area.Walden and your parents area are north of me and should be a lock for double digits.Maybe if this nowcast trends south, I'll have a longshot at double digits.

Yep, radar looks sparse right now.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:37 am

Today day wise is not going to produce much of anything until we get to tonight - that is when the precip actually moves in and goes into Mon night for my area on NNJ. A 15 miles jog south and Doc you are 8-12" and mainly stay snow which may happen.

This is a night mare forecast for all and Upton's WWA is playing it safe right now for areas N&W of the city. IF we get the ice accretion they are calling for then I they should not post ICE STORM WARNINGS FOR NNJ AND PART OF WESTCHESTER CO IMO

RGEM SNOW

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 SN_000-048_0000

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:13 am

mugs what a tight gradient. 2" for the Bronx and 8" for white plans. man that's less than 10 miles apart. still thinking after a period of fzr rain and sleet it's mostly snow from west. county line north.
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:25 am

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 StormTotalIceFcst

worst possible scenario for our area..guess i'm not taking my car anywhere i can see pile up's everywhere already, i just make that .15 mark i hope its more towards the .6/.9
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:52 am

amugs wrote:Today day wise is not going to produce much of anything until we get to tonight - that is when the precip actually moves in and goes into Mon night for my area on NNJ.  A 15 miles jog south and Doc you are 8-12" and mainly stay snow which may happen.

This is a night mare forecast for all and Upton's WWA is playing it safe right now for areas N&W of the city.  IF we get the ice accretion they are calling for then I they should not post ICE STORM WARNINGS FOR NNJ AND PART OF WESTCHESTER CO IMO

RGEM SNOW

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 SN_000-048_0000

Maybe, Mugs.That yellow dot in the lower HV is right over my roof,LOL!

Totally nowcast situation.Radar looks like something trying to get going west of me but it looks like sleet and rain.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:55 am

nws update
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. HIGHS HAVE LIKELY BEEN REACHED TODAY WITH TEMPS
HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN
E/NE FLOW.
SIMILAR TO 24H AGO THERE ARE RADAR RETURN ACROSS
EASTERN PA WORKING EAST THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN THIS
AFT. MOST OF THIS THOUGH SEEMS TO BE DRYING OUT BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND BASED ON OBS.

WEAK LIFT FROM OVERRUNNING WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
AREA. THUS...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS OR STALLS
AND THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT YET FILTER TO LONG ISLAND.

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:58 am

can someone post current 850 temps.tks
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Post by WeatherBob Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:02 pm

I just don't see the 2 ft they are saying near Boston. Look at the upper dynamics. Look at the 700MB. I do see an overriding event but 2 ft out of this system? I just don't see it. Can anyone maybe enlighten me?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:08 pm

Rjb why why would u want .6 to .9 ice that would b terrible or was that a typo. Mugs I agree but Frank's said a ice storm warning unlikely as per his words nws doesn't believe in ice storms. It will probably have to be ongoing. I will say water dripping in front my building is form a sheet of ice so any frz will def be bad.
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Post by Yschiff Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:25 pm

Any new updates?

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Post by WeatherBob Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:32 pm

I think this storm is going to be 1/2 of what the models say. The upper dynamics are not there. If someone can make me see something in the models that will support the 2 ft of max snowfall mets are predicting please let me know. I maybe can see upslope enhanced overriding precip to some degree up in the mountains Catskills, NW Mass, NW Conn into S VT , S NH, maybe 12 to 15 in max. .
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:46 pm

WeatherBob wrote:I think this storm is going to be 1/2 of what the models say.  The upper dynamics are not there.  If someone can make me see something in the models that will support the 2 ft of max snowfall mets are predicting please let me know. I maybe can see upslope enhanced overriding precip to some degree up in the mountains Catskills, NW Mass, NW Conn into S VT , S NH, maybe 12 to 15 in max.  .    

I think they are including what has already fallen yesterday and last night. I'm not sure how much parts of New England have already received but add another 12, maybe as much as 18 with high ratios and that may get some parts to 2 ft. That's the only thing I can figure.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:53 pm

weather it just staring to blossom give it time!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:58 pm

Well if inaccuwx is right I'm getting .39 ice total with 45 mph wind gusts. Where the heck are they get that much wind from? I hope their not right that's real bad news.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:00 pm

It's amazing to me how dry the euro is compared to other models. I just can't believe it right now. I think the RGEM/UKIE/GFS are the right trio to go by. Heres 12z ukie snowmap

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 PA_000-072_0000

That's still showing 2-4 inches of snow for NYC, even though it may only accumulate on non road surfaces. At this point, there's no sense in changing my final call. I still think the lower ended of these ranges are attainable.

I'm sticking with this.

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 10401375_885185438199883_4955338034101582846_n

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:03 pm

Here was the 12z rgem

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 SN_000-048_0000


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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:05 pm

I'll admit I don't have time right now to look at current observations, such as water vapor and radar loops, so if anyone sees something with those that argue against the rgem/ukie I'll listen. I won't get back to my hotel room until 8pm. For now, I'm sticking with my call including the ice map.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:10 pm

Frank why did you remove the ice threat scroll from the top if your sticking with your call? I can just see my hill now oy, even a light glaze and cars will be going all over, in snow they cannot get up it. It is not that cold out here about 35 and been holding steady, that needs to drop quite a bit for frz. I am more interested in later this week and next week.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:22 pm

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Screenshot_2015_02_08_15_21_28

Radar beginning to explode to our north. Let's see how much this sinks south throughout the night.

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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:30 pm

Upton Went Colder Again...
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Stormt18
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Stormt19

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:35 pm

They are so undecided.....flip flop, flip flop just put out a friggin' forecast!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:36 pm


* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH
UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:27 pm

Its better to stick with your original forecast. If you're wrong, you're wrong. Its the weather. Big deal.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:05 pm

Wow radar blew up quick. 20z hrrr is a disaster for nyc and surround areas overnight into morning 6 plus hours of frz yikes!
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