NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Page 4 of 5 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:27 am

@snow247 wrote:00z EURO is still much colder just like earlier runs but continues to be the driest of all models.

How much total QPF does euro show for Hudson valley?
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 895
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:27 am

Don't know about the double digits,syo, the heavier snow looks like just north of me.CP and I are in the 4 to 8 area.Walden and your parents area are north of me and should be a lock for double digits.Maybe if this nowcast trends south, I'll have a longshot at double digits.

Yep, radar looks sparse right now.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by amugs Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:37 am

Today day wise is not going to produce much of anything until we get to tonight - that is when the precip actually moves in and goes into Mon night for my area on NNJ. A 15 miles jog south and Doc you are 8-12" and mainly stay snow which may happen.

This is a night mare forecast for all and Upton's WWA is playing it safe right now for areas N&W of the city. IF we get the ice accretion they are calling for then I they should not post ICE STORM WARNINGS FOR NNJ AND PART OF WESTCHESTER CO IMO

RGEM SNOW

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 SN_000-048_0000

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12157
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:13 am

mugs what a tight gradient. 2" for the Bronx and 8" for white plans. man that's less than 10 miles apart. still thinking after a period of fzr rain and sleet it's mostly snow from west. county line north.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:25 am

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 StormTotalIceFcst

worst possible scenario for our area..guess i'm not taking my car anywhere i can see pile up's everywhere already, i just make that .15 mark i hope its more towards the .6/.9
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:52 am

@amugs wrote:Today day wise is not going to produce much of anything until we get to tonight - that is when the precip actually moves in and goes into Mon night for my area on NNJ.  A 15 miles jog south and Doc you are 8-12" and mainly stay snow which may happen.

This is a night mare forecast for all and Upton's WWA is playing it safe right now for areas N&W of the city.  IF we get the ice accretion they are calling for then I they should not post ICE STORM WARNINGS FOR NNJ AND PART OF WESTCHESTER CO IMO

RGEM SNOW

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 SN_000-048_0000

Maybe, Mugs.That yellow dot in the lower HV is right over my roof,LOL!

Totally nowcast situation.Radar looks like something trying to get going west of me but it looks like sleet and rain.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:55 am

nws update
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. HIGHS HAVE LIKELY BEEN REACHED TODAY WITH TEMPS
HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN
E/NE FLOW.
SIMILAR TO 24H AGO THERE ARE RADAR RETURN ACROSS
EASTERN PA WORKING EAST THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN THIS
AFT. MOST OF THIS THOUGH SEEMS TO BE DRYING OUT BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND BASED ON OBS.

WEAK LIFT FROM OVERRUNNING WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
AREA. THUS...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY. A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS OR STALLS
AND THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT YET FILTER TO LONG ISLAND.

algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:58 am

can someone post current 850 temps.tks
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by WeatherBob Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:02 pm

I just don't see the 2 ft they are saying near Boston. Look at the upper dynamics. Look at the 700MB. I do see an overriding event but 2 ft out of this system? I just don't see it. Can anyone maybe enlighten me?
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 598
Reputation : 82
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 480 ft

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:08 pm

Rjb why why would u want .6 to .9 ice that would b terrible or was that a typo. Mugs I agree but Frank's said a ice storm warning unlikely as per his words nws doesn't believe in ice storms. It will probably have to be ongoing. I will say water dripping in front my building is form a sheet of ice so any frz will def be bad.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Yschiff Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:25 pm

Any new updates?

Yschiff

Posts : 139
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-01-04
Location : Far Rockaway New York

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by WeatherBob Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:32 pm

I think this storm is going to be 1/2 of what the models say. The upper dynamics are not there. If someone can make me see something in the models that will support the 2 ft of max snowfall mets are predicting please let me know. I maybe can see upslope enhanced overriding precip to some degree up in the mountains Catskills, NW Mass, NW Conn into S VT , S NH, maybe 12 to 15 in max. .
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 598
Reputation : 82
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 480 ft

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:46 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:I think this storm is going to be 1/2 of what the models say.  The upper dynamics are not there.  If someone can make me see something in the models that will support the 2 ft of max snowfall mets are predicting please let me know. I maybe can see upslope enhanced overriding precip to some degree up in the mountains Catskills, NW Mass, NW Conn into S VT , S NH, maybe 12 to 15 in max.  .    

I think they are including what has already fallen yesterday and last night. I'm not sure how much parts of New England have already received but add another 12, maybe as much as 18 with high ratios and that may get some parts to 2 ft. That's the only thing I can figure.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 895
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:53 pm

weather it just staring to blossom give it time!

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1140
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:58 pm

Well if inaccuwx is right I'm getting .39 ice total with 45 mph wind gusts. Where the heck are they get that much wind from? I hope their not right that's real bad news.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:00 pm

It's amazing to me how dry the euro is compared to other models. I just can't believe it right now. I think the RGEM/UKIE/GFS are the right trio to go by. Heres 12z ukie snowmap

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 PA_000-072_0000

That's still showing 2-4 inches of snow for NYC, even though it may only accumulate on non road surfaces. At this point, there's no sense in changing my final call. I still think the lower ended of these ranges are attainable.

I'm sticking with this.

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 10401375_885185438199883_4955338034101582846_n

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:03 pm

Here was the 12z rgem

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 SN_000-048_0000


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:05 pm

I'll admit I don't have time right now to look at current observations, such as water vapor and radar loops, so if anyone sees something with those that argue against the rgem/ukie I'll listen. I won't get back to my hotel room until 8pm. For now, I'm sticking with my call including the ice map.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:10 pm

Frank why did you remove the ice threat scroll from the top if your sticking with your call? I can just see my hill now oy, even a light glaze and cars will be going all over, in snow they cannot get up it. It is not that cold out here about 35 and been holding steady, that needs to drop quite a bit for frz. I am more interested in later this week and next week.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:22 pm

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Screenshot_2015_02_08_15_21_28

Radar beginning to explode to our north. Let's see how much this sinks south throughout the night.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by aiannone Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:30 pm

Upton Went Colder Again...
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Stormt18
Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Stormt19
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:35 pm

They are so undecided.....flip flop, flip flop just put out a friggin' forecast!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4367
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by aiannone Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:36 pm


* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH
UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:27 pm

Its better to stick with your original forecast. If you're wrong, you're wrong. Its the weather. Big deal.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:05 pm

Wow radar blew up quick. 20z hrrr is a disaster for nyc and surround areas overnight into morning 6 plus hours of frz yikes!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 5 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum