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February 12th Obs. Thread

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February 12th Obs. Thread  Empty February 12th Obs. Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:57 pm

Major.

Or, minor.

Typically by this time of the Meteorological winter we have an idea of what the seasonal trend is like. Which areas are constantly getting hit the hardest in the northeast? I do not have to name the city that begins with the letter "B" to know where I am going with this. However, the pattern in my opinion still favors a strong storm sitting off the coast of New England. Here is why:

February 12th Obs. Thread  Gfs_1

By Thursday night, the mid-level trough is going from neutral to negative off the coast of NJ. The H5 energy is consolidating at the base and a potent surface low is developing off the coast. Notice 3 key features (circled in green).

1. Blocking in Scandinavia. The higher heights in that section of the globe is helping to slow down the northern jet, however, that is a type of block that favors New England more than NYC. We want to see higher heights over Greenland, or a west-based block, so the trough can go negative sooner thus allowing a coastal storm closer to our coast. However, look at the dip in the jet stream due east of Maine. That is today's system! You also notice higher heights just south of Greenland. Those two features COULD be a reason why models are trending west with this coastal storm. Technically, that could be considered a west-based block even though it is transient.

2. The ridge axis in the west looks great. With an MJO in phase 8 we have favorable tropical forcing. Downstream, this allows the northern stream energy to eject out of Canada and dig into the eastern CONUS.

The combination of an impressive +PNA with blocking in the north Atlantic ARE the reasons why the Thursday system COULD come further west than where current guidance has it.

February 12th Obs. Thread  Gfs_2

On the GFS, the trough is negative but H5 closes off just a little too late to benefit us with a Godzilla-type storm. Of course, it closes off in time for New England and that's because of the east-based block. Literally, this storm is just 6 hours too late from closing off at our latitude. 6 hours is nothing. And if the models recognize more and more the block in the north Atlantic in future runs, we'll see H5 close off at our latitude.

February 12th Obs. Thread  Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15

Here is the coastal system. At this point, H5 has just closed off but it's too late for us to bring us significant snowfall. BUT IT"S SO CLOSE. How many times have we said that in the last 2 weeks? Pretty often.

February 12th Obs. Thread  Thursday

These are super preliminary thoughts based on probabilities. There is still a lot of model runs to analyze before we get to the end result and 1st call snow map.

It starts with the 00z runs tonight. Hopefully they recognize the block in the north Atlantic and trend even more west.

Lets do it.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Guest Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:03 pm

Hope so Frank. I know that 1 city has benefitted time and time again but it has to change at some point right??? That being said I'll take my "high probability" of at least 5 and sign now!!! I just hope it works out for ALL of us.

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:05 pm

Very nice write up, Frank.

And I agree, let's do this! Come on west trend!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:05 pm

As the scroll says, minor snowfall event is likely Thursday but the potential for something bigger exists IF certain players in our atmosphere align just right.

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Post by Math23x7 Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:19 pm

Any live chat tonight?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:21 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Any live chat tonight?

Not tonight, maybe tomorrow.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:32 pm

Anxiously awaiting 00z but I'm not going to expect anything but will b nice to see it go west even a little.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:52 pm

The 00z N(ot) A M(odel) goes kapoot for the storm.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:55 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:The 00z N(ot) A M(odel) goes kapoot for the storm.

Oh well

On to the GFS! Can't wait!
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:10 pm

Great write up frank and yes let's do this for once this season and get the pseudo west based block to hang for a while and get er west. Snow ratios will be great if it happens as well.

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:40 pm

GFS is rolling. Here's to hoping for a continued west trend and other improvements.


Last edited by snow247 on Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:44 pm

How far off the coast was last run at 12z
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:45 pm

Now we are still 3 days out so we have time
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:52 pm

00z GFS looks good so far. Trough going neutral quicker...H5 closing off...western ridge looks better than 18z

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:55 pm

Close, but no cigar

February 12th Obs. Thread  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:55 pm

I'm hearing the GFS is similar to Not A Model, 1-3" for the area.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:56 pm

February 12th Obs. Thread  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

Minor snowfall event

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:57 pm

On to the weekend.
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Post by lglickman1 Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:58 pm

Something that can cont to trend west or not really given the setup?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:59 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:Something that can cont to trend west or not really  given the setup?

As I explained in the write-up, I do not believe so. I have been favoring a minor event but who knows maybe there will be surprised on tomorrow's model runs.

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Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:01 pm

So GFS says nothing? Or 1-3?

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Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:01 pm

What's with the EURO?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:01 pm

@Abba701 wrote:So GFS says nothing? Or 1-3?

2-4" for NYC and east. C-2" for west of NYC

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:01 pm

@snow247 wrote:On to the weekend.

Ryan Maue has already written off the weekend threat too, not sure why just yet.
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Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:05 pm

Yes skinsfans I agree.You never know with weather.You just don't.But I bet there will
Be not much.

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