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February 12th Obs. Thread

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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:14 pm

Boy you guys need a good storm this is bull. Not looking good but lets keep thinking positive.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:32 pm

WE JUST CANNOT WINNNNNNNNN!!!!!!

Okay okay I'm done yes I know banter banter blah blah. I wanna cry.

Let's see how the Euro plays out. Maybe this will be the one storm the models agree on inside 48 hrs?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:37 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:WE JUST CANNOT WINNNNNNNNN!!!!!!

Okay okay I'm done yes I know banter banter blah blah. I wanna cry.

Let's see how the Euro plays out. Maybe this will be the one storm the models agree on inside 48 hrs?

Why get your hopes up? The setup is not great.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:40 pm

GGEM is east. 3+ for LI

February 12th Obs. Thread  - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:47 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:WE JUST CANNOT WINNNNNNNNN!!!!!!

Okay okay I'm done yes I know banter banter blah blah. I wanna cry.

Let's see how the Euro plays out. Maybe this will be the one storm the models agree on inside 48 hrs?

Why get your hopes up? The setup is not great.

It's never great! Well, this season anyway. But hey that's why they call 'em patterns. :-)
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:13 am

The 0Z CMC SLAMS Boston Thursday night into Friday. And Boston may get hit again next weekend. I wonder if they will break their seasonal snow total of 107.6" from 1995-96. As of a few hours ago, it was at 76.5" and it's still snowing there now. Just to put this in context as to how Boston is a better snow magnet than NYC, NYC's snowiest season on record was also from 1995-96, but at 75.6", which is less than the 76.5" Boston has.

FYI, the CMC is indeed a near miss for NYC.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:44 am

Not putting any hope in this one for more than 1-3 inches. Anything more at this point I'll be pleasantly surprised.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:06 am

GFS says 1-2"

Sounds about right

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:37 am

I thought we were in line for 3 to 8" area wide after your post at the top of page 1. Or was that just if the model shown came to fruition??

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:47 am

syosnow94 wrote:I thought we were in line for 3 to 8" area wide after your post at the top of page 1.  Or was that just if the model shown came to fruition??

I was thinking the spacing between yesterday's storm and the Thursday system would be enough to keep this close enough to the coast to at least bring LI and sizable snow event. We'll see what others models say today, but those west of NYC this is 1-2" event.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:13 pm

Euro trended even less with this, and see wx banter for something else that should make some feel better.
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Post by Guest Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I thought we were in line for 3 to 8" area wide after your post at the top of page 1.  Or was that just if the model shown came to fruition??

I was thinking the spacing between yesterday's storm and the Thursday system would be enough to keep this close enough to the coast to at least bring LI and sizable snow event. We'll see what others models say today, but those west of NYC this is 1-2" event.

OK thanks!!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:15 pm

Upton has their preliminary map up, the most is well east with NYC area 1-2, enough to make evening commute a little slick, or will this start later than that?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:38 pm

The timing is going to suck. Looks to start early afternoon and persist through 11pm.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:54 pm

Great my appt. Will probably b canceled for 3rd time. They close at first sight of snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:02 pm

I know it's early but I'm just going to make this the observation thread for Thursday. Early call is C-2 inches NYC and points west, 2-4 inches east of NYC.

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Post by Teetghhuhnbhj Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:40 am

Hi guys. I mostly just read and try to understand. I'm a bit of a snow weenie myself. Lol. Sounds like I'm near where skins fan is. Southern Monmouth county. Will we see anything from Thursday's snow. I haven't read anywhere as to how far south the precip will be. Please excuse my ignorance, I do my best to follow what you guys are saying. Thanks in advance.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:00 am

@Teetghhuhnbhj wrote:Hi guys. I mostly just read and try to understand. I'm a bit of a snow weenie myself. Lol. Sounds like I'm near where skins fan is. Southern Monmouth county. Will we see anything from Thursday's snow. I haven't read anywhere as to how far south the precip will be. Please excuse my ignorance, I do my best to follow what you guys are saying. Thanks in advance.

we can expect from 1 to 3 inches but probably on the higher end of that being we are farther east
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Post by Teetghhuhnbhj Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:30 am

I'll take it! Thanks for the reply skinsfan

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:44 am

12z GFS still showing snow showers moving in around 1pm tomorrow and persisting until 8pm or so. Probably a solid inch for most

February 12th Obs. Thread  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

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Post by gigs68 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:56 am

12z GFS still showing snow showers moving in around 1pm tomorrow and persisting until 8pm or so. Probably a solid inch for most

Wow, an inch in 7 hours.  Hope the plows can keep up with that snowfall rate. Smile
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:09 pm

@gigs68 wrote:12z GFS still showing snow showers moving in around 1pm tomorrow and persisting until 8pm or so. Probably a solid inch for most

Wow, an inch in 7 hours.  Hope the plows can keep up with that snowfall rate. Smile


lol

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:00 pm

This system had a chance of deepening off the coast of LI but that's not going to happen. The Monday storm is no longer acting as a block in the overall jet stream, so it's a progressive system. Oh well, 1-2 inches for all.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:39 pm

February 12th Obs. Thread  - Page 2 Hrrr_east-us_01500_sim_radar_max

HRRR has snow squalls tomorrow

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:40 pm

Many global models have went from a widespread event to an isolated event. C-1" now. Nothing to see here....

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