NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

March 25th Storm Thread

+7
Sanchize06
Math23x7
Quietace
amugs
sroc4
Snow88
Frank_Wx
11 posters

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:15 pm

Blog

http://epawablogs.com/winters-last-stand-watching-march-25th-30th-storm-potential/



Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 24, 2013 8:22 pm; edited 4 times in total
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Snow88 Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:12 am

Euro mean is well north of the op

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS168.gif
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 34
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:38 am

I wish I had the time to build off of Franks Blog about this potential with maps etc. The way I see it now is it is going to be a close call. I see it currently staying mostly suppressed to our south, but there is way too much time to say that with any confidence (60% suppressed 40% comes close enough for significant effects).

The keys: 1) How strong the NAO is (and west based NAO) will dictate where the ULL that is forming as we speak ends up when the energy that will be our system makes it to the EC by the end of next weekend. Like Frank outlined in his blog if the ULL sits too close to us in the NE (ie: Maine/SE Canada) it will act to prevent the heights from rising out ahead of the system along the EC at the 500mb level. The height rising out ahead of the system as it reaches the coast is crucial to steering the system N-NE up the coast instead of east -north east OTS.

Key #2) Moving west there will be a HP setting up over south central Canada. Currently modeled between 1030-1035MB. How far north or south in Canada and how strong will aid in the strength and where the main area of vorticity of the system as it develops over the middle of the country (currently around the 144hr time frame as of last nights 0z's.

And of course Key#3) The status of the PNA and its associated ridge in the west.

Again my current thoughts are that the strength of the -NAO will prevent the ULL from getting out of the way in time ultimately suppressing the system..how much I dont know. However, that being said those are my thoughts today based on the current data. The Euro still has it suppressed with the entire area staying dry, but the GGem is further north, and the GFS overnight actually cuts the system into the GL before it transfers to the coast and shoots east(wrong). But as Snow 88 posted above the Euro ens mean is north of the operational which may indicate that the operational will trend in that direction. ULLows are handled with great difficulty by models esp the father out in time you go because there is so much secondary energy/shortwaves/vorticity that spins around and spins off of this type of feature. Models have a hard time predicting how this secondary energy will behave, so there in lies the uncertainty this far out. Keep an eye on the consistency of the models with regards to the above mentioned keys and you will know what will happen between the 24th-26th time frame.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7513
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:22 am

This is like the storm from 1st week of March. Until the strength of the block is recognized, we will continue seeing different model solutions.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 19, 2013 12:35 pm

The GFS is a load of crap. There is no way a primary can cut into a strong block like that. The AO/NAO are at extremely negative values right now. Stick with the GGEM/EURO for now...
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 19, 2013 1:52 pm

March 25th Storm Thread 12zgfs10

GEFS
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 19, 2013 6:30 pm

Euro ensembles are gorgeous. All out snowstorm for the area. They have been consistent.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by amugs Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:59 pm

Frank,

Since last week I heard and also sw teh Euro showing this possible MECS (a monster to boot on some runs) for our area and the euro has been showing this 240 hours out. I hope this comes to fruition. I have read your blog on this and the data from the teleconnections. Correct me but it seems that the models cannot get a good handle sometimes on these types of snowstorms/nor'easters (MECS) due to the complexity of the variables that come into play - ULL, HP, VORTS, PHASING, Ridge in the west and more until about 72 hours out. I do believev in looking at the models/data that we are in for one and look forward to more great news and data on this site and your facebook page.

Mugs
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13980
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 19, 2013 11:03 pm

amugs wrote:Frank,

Since last week I heard and also sw teh Euro showing this possible MECS (a monster to boot on some runs) for our area and the euro has been showing this 240 hours out. I hope this comes to fruition. I have read your blog on this and the data from the teleconnections. Correct me but it seems that the models cannot get a good handle sometimes on these types of snowstorms/nor'easters (MECS) due to the complexity of the variables that come into play - ULL, HP, VORTS, PHASING, Ridge in the west and more until about 72 hours out. I do believev in looking at the models/data that we are in for one and look forward to more great news and data on this site and your facebook page.

Mugs

Yea this is a very tricky set up, as has been most storms this season. I really hate seeing this turn into a Miller B type of storm. I was hoping it will remain more Miller A like models were showing a couple days ago. But that is not going to happen. There will be a primary low that cuts to our west and a secondary will form. Hopefully temps are not too warm from the primary low cutting, but as of now, I would expect a marginal storm with a chance of both rain and snow.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:25 am

GFS tonight

March 25th Storm Thread Gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east2_51
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:03 am

GGEM

March 25th Storm Thread P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:20 pm

Big turn of events on 12z models today. Storm potential next week is growing with high confidence. I'm thinking we see a coastal storm. EURO, GFS, NAVGEM agree. GFS and GGEM catching on.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:46 pm

"THE TELECONNECTION OF SHARP POSITIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO TIME OF THE AO AND NAO GOING TOWARDS LESS NEGATIVE VALUES AND POSITIVE PNA RELATE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL. SO IT IS POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL TRACKS COULD BE MORE NORTHERLY FOR SOME MODELS THAT KEEP AREA DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AND COLDER AS WELL IF THE LOW TRENDS STRONGER. THAT WOULD BE MEAN A GREATER FRACTION OF THE REGION GETTING SNOW."
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:24 am

So it looks like the GFS shifted towards the Euro last night with a suppressed soln. On the GFS the secondary forms somewhere off the NC/Va coast and heads east/NE. vs the GGEM which still has the primary cut further north into the Ohio valley region before transferring to the coast between the DelMarVa-Mid Jersey Coast and then heads NE from there.
Here is the Euro. Notice that the heights along the EC are flat. Also notice that as the primary cuts into the Ohio valley it runs into the Strong HP that extends from Extreme N Canada and extends down into the deep south. This HP pushes our ULL, positioned to our NE, as well. This combination prevents the heights on the EC, which if you recall are crucial for the secondary to move N-NE along the coast, from building and orienting more N to S instead of E-NE like the Euro and last nights GFS runs show.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img835/5053/euro0z500mbhghtna09621.gif
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img822/8048/euro0z500mbhghtna12021.gif
Now look at the GGEM. The primary is a little stronger I think at the same time frame; therefore, notice as it cuts into the Ohio Valley it creates a little buckle in the HP heights to its N and West. This allows it to come a little further N before it transfers. As a result the secondary forms off the coast further north around S NJ. Notice that the heights along the EC are oriented more N to S when compared to the Euro soln.
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img855/7210/ggem0z500mbhghtna09621.gif
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img571/6329/ggem0z500mbhghtna12021.gif
The Euro and last nights GFS keeps the precip shield suppressed to our south, vs the GGEM brings our area into the heart of the precip. The GGEM seems to be the Northern soln, and the Euro seems to be the most southern soln. So that tells me that the actual soln will lie somewhere in between. I believe it lies closer to the Euros soln. I also think once again there is the possibility of the same areas for the past month or two will be discussing the possibilities of an inverted trough developing as the secondary moves well to our east. ie: LI, SE CT, RI, Boston, S Maine)
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img585/551/euro0z500mbhghtna07221.gif

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7513
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:49 am

One final thought: If you look at the spread of yesterdays 12z and todays 0z teleconnections all models and there ens seem to agree that now the NAO and West based NAO to not trend towards pos until after the 26th. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zlinegraphs.html

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zlinegraphs.html
With the NAO remaining flat in the strong Neg state during this time frame one might think that the supressed soln is likely

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7513
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Quietace Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:54 pm

Well, the 00z NAM went crazy. lol....Too bad its the NAM in the Long Range
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3662
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 25
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:09 am

I like the trends tonight by both NAM and GFS. They recognize the block and transfer sooner.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:00 am

WOW CMC!!!

March 25th Storm Thread Cmc_snow_acc_east_20
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Math23x7 Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:12 am

Frank, I just checked the surface temperatures and the seem marginal, keep in mind that if the surface temperature is above 32 degrees, snow ratios can be around 6:1 or even 3:1, while the Canadian snow totals pretty much assume a 10:1 ratio. I'm just saying there's still a long way to go to insure this storm, particularly with how the upcoming EURO runs do.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2337
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Sanchize06 Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:18 am

NAM/GFS/CMC all looking pretty good tonight and the 0z GEFS were much better than the previous runs with .75+ qpf for CNJ,SNJ and .50-.75 for NNJ,NYC,and LI.

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:48 am

Math23x7 wrote:Frank, I just checked the surface temperatures and the seem marginal, keep in mind that if the surface temperature is above 32 degrees, snow ratios can be around 6:1 or even 3:1, while the Canadian snow totals pretty much assume a 10:1 ratio. I'm just saying there's still a long way to go to insure this storm, particularly with how the upcoming EURO runs do.

WB snow maps take into account surface. The are very good. And most models show surface temps below 32 degrees. But I do agree there is still some time to go with this storm. But everything tonight trended stronger, wetter, and west.





Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 9:52 am

The GGEM/NAM are going to score huge points with this storm, just like they did back with the December storm when we had a lot of blocking. I am growing very confident in this storm potential. And I'm not talking nuisance snowfall amounts either. With the NAO/AO state of negativeness, this is going to be a huge storm either near or on the BM
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:10 am

I agree with you.

Plus throw in the fact the NAM was the first model to pick up on 30-40 inch potential from February Blizzard even though the bulls eye it had was off by 40 miles or so. It originally had the Hudson Valley getting clobbered but we ended up with 14-20 inches and the 30-40 inche bulls eye was 40-50 miles due east in SW CT.

Also the NAM was the first and I believe only model to pick up on the one foot plus totals from the early March inverted trough. We got 12-18 inches from that in HV and most models and Pro Mets were calling for 2-5, 3-6 in HV.

I've been very impressed with NAM this winter and no longer dismiss it as in some years past. I think last night it was on to something again.

Keep us updated Frank. We have another interesting weekend ahead. I believe this will be more of a Central north Jersey, NYC, LI storm but HV not out of the equation. NAM had us for a good hit last night area wide including the HV.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6833
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 101
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:13 am

Yea 12z runs will be big today. I'll keep everyone posted.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20748
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Sanchize06 Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:46 am

12z NAM is more SE but still a good run and probably better because the other runs are a little too close to the coast.

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 25th Storm Thread Empty Re: March 25th Storm Thread

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum