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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:34 am

Since we are 4days out Im starting a separate thread.  Here is the general set up.  Regardless of the differences on the surface the differences(which will cont to change) on the H5 maps are not all that far off between CMC, EURO, and GFS.  There are still subtle differences; however.  These subtle differences could mean big differences in your back yard come Sat/Sunday.  Lets look at this from a general sense and identify the overall set up and the problems associated with it.

I will use the Euro to illustrate my point but generally speaking the points I am about to make are the same on the GFS and CMC with subtle differences to timing and positioning.  

First image is the euros first panal.  Here I am simpy illustrating that the energy that will be our weekend system is still waaay up into the Arctic circle/N Canada so sampling is still less than ideal.  
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_35" />

As you can see in this next image by Friday afternoon a very nice sharp ridge is in place which leads to our energy diving S down the eastern flank of the ridge into the mean trough already in place while Thursday system is lifting out.  One thing that is a fact is that this energy looks to be very strong.  
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_36" />

So we go from this on Friday afternoon:

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_37" />

To this on Sat afternoon:
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_38" />

To this by Sunday Morning:
(If the trough axis was shifted 75miles west whoa baby, but the collapse of the ridge prevents this by keeping the whole flow moving)
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_40" />

As you can see the nice sharp PNA ridge is being uncut by energy from the pacific come saturday which knocks it down leading to a more gradual slope as our energy dives in through the GL.  This ultimately leads to a more progressive flow to the whole pattern.  So while our energy is still super potent and still digs into the mean trough, closes off H5, tilts the trough negative, and still brings the potential for some decent snow fall(esp with the inverted trough signature) the trough axis continues to shift east throughout the process.  How far it can dig and the timing of this is key to who sees how much.  If the Ridge were to hold together this has Roidzilla potential in the NE because it would allow the energy to dig deeper which would lead to a closed H5 further south and the trough orientation would stear the primary surface low more S to N up the coast.  Instead the track seen on all major models ATT is more progressive and W to E as it reforms off the coast.  The problem is there is decent consensus in that energy undercutting and trying to  knock down the ridge some by Sat afternoon, and this has been the pattern all winter.  Fort and Unfrot we are equally close at H5 to both a snowier soln as well as a not as snowy soln depending on the timing of the energy and the PNA ridge collapsing.   

So whatabout Thursdays storm acting as a block.  The bottom line is this....we don't have the pattern to support great blocking.  It sucks but its reality.  Here is Sunday morning.  As you can see the flow is too progressive to keep that system close enough in Lat to slow down the weekend system.  By Sunday morning the Thursday system is way up north E of Greenland.
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_39" />

We still have a ways to go with this system.  The main factors preventing this from being wide spread godzilla-roidzilla is no blocking in the east, and a collapsing ridge in the west as of now based on models verbatim.  This is unfort the most likelyscenario given the general consensus and the overall seasonal trend.  If the PNA ridge holds up longer, if the Thursday system is a bit further south we can see positive trends to more snowy for all.  

Below I have the H5 closed Low positioning for all three models effective Sat around late morning early afternoon.  CMC, Euro, and GFS

CMC digs the H5 closed low furthest South, Then Euro then GFS is the furthest N.  This will be key to where the inverted trough axis sets up.  
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Cmc_z512" />
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_41" />
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Gfs_z514" />

Ideally we would have something like this...If the ridge held up
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL <a href=FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Ecmwf_42" />

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Post by sabamfa Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:42 am

So....what is your current "most likely scenario" regarding plans this weekend? I have dinner reservations Saturday evening in Jersey City and brunch reservations Sunday in West Orange. Should I be able to keep both?

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Post by oldtimer Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:49 am

Great stuff Sroc as always Very interesting Thanks

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:49 am

@sabamfa wrote:So....what is your current "most likely scenario" regarding plans this weekend? I have dinner reservations Saturday evening in Jersey City and brunch reservations Sunday in West Orange. Should I be able to keep both?

Honestly I am not sue yet. I still think S NJ to Boston is still fair game for mod to significant snow. My gut tells me the main player in this will be the inverted trough, and less likely from the bands from a deepening LP system (CCB Banding), but that will mean that more significant snows will prob be less wide spread as inverted troughs can produce a swath of 10-12" with 20 miles N or S of the main axis 1-2". Positioning of that is def unclear at this time but gun to my head I think it sets up anywhere from between Monmouth county NJ to somewhere ove RI/MA area or anywhere in between, but that's just a guess right now based on the current data. A lot can still change

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:06 am

thank you for the great write up...you make it easy to understand even for a novice!! have a good day!
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Post by sabamfa Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:08 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@sabamfa wrote:So....what is your current "most likely scenario" regarding plans this weekend? I have dinner reservations Saturday evening in Jersey City and brunch reservations Sunday in West Orange. Should I be able to keep both?

Honestly I am not sue yet.  I still think S NJ to Boston is still fair game for mod to significant snow.   My gut tells me the main player in this will be the inverted trough, and less likely from the bands from a deepening LP system (CCB Banding), but that will mean that more significant snows will prob be less wide spread as inverted troughs can produce a swath of 10-12" with 20 miles N or S of the main axis 1-2".  Positioning of that is def unclear at this time but gun to my head I think it sets up anywhere from between Monmouth county NJ to somewhere ove RI/MA area or anywhere in between, but that's just a guess right now based on the current data.  A lot can still change  

Thanks, sroc! I'll definitely be following along with what all of you say! =)

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:19 am

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f108.png?v=1423629736

Speaking from experience and studies, this would never happen. The low would either be one or the other; you would never get a binary system. Not saying that the inverted trough signature is wrong because that is going to happen with this system, but the binary lows is impossible lol

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:20 am

Awesome writeup, by the way, Sroc!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:23 am

NIce explanation, the fact they all agree pretty much on H5 may make this easier to forecast. When u say anywhere from SNJ to boston (meaning the whole coast in between there?) do u also include NYC in this snow threat? I know we kinda in a notch and sometimes like with Juno we miss out on the big snows ( I know that was not because of where we were but that sustenance issue., I am guessing you will say its too early but just want to know if you feel we are at least in the threat area. Euro had .5+ qpf which would bring a pretty decent snow with ratios, I cannot imagine they would be less than 20:1, even with the variables Alex and you all were talking about, maybe higher. There have been slight surface positive trends, but as you said at this point that is neither here nor there, but still fun to look at : ) Thanks
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:24 am

@rb924119 wrote:http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f108.png?v=1423629736

Speaking from experience and studies, this would never happen. The low would either be one or the other; you would never get a binary system. Not saying that the inverted trough signature is wrong because that is going to happen with this system, but the binary lows is impossible lol

I really thought that was odd last night rb.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:24 am

Great write up Scott. This at least makes it clear don't be expecting any major storm although not impossible not likely at this time. However that invented trough as you've pointed out has been consistent on the models but where it lines up is impossible to judge. As long as it's over land someone in a narrow strip is going to be very happy. It's similar although not as drastic as in a lake effect scenario as to the extremes from town to town. I'm not expecting much but the chase is always interesting as long as you keep your emotions in check.
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:30 am

@rb924119 wrote:http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f108.png?v=1423629736

Speaking from experience and studies, this would never happen. The low would either be one or the other; you would never get a binary system. Not saying that the inverted trough signature is wrong because that is going to happen with this system, but the binary lows is impossible lol
Happened last year...March 25...Gave snow to Dc and SNj before complete phase and main low to east rapidly intensified hitting NE and nova scotia....double barrel lows are very rare as you said, but they happen with unique set ups

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:32 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Great write up Scott. This at least makes it clear don't be expecting any major storm although not impossible not likely at this time. However that invented trough as you've pointed out has been consistent on the models but where it lines up is impossible to judge. As long as it's over land someone in a narrow strip is going to be very happy. It's similar although not as drastic as in a lake effect scenario as to the extremes from town to town. I'm not expecting much but the chase is always interesting as long as you keep your emotions in check.

Exactly CP. The wide spread mod to sig storm is def not off the table yet but statistically speaking is less likely unless the trough digs. Unfort as Al pointed out in the other thread the GFS has been slowly trending north with the closed low track. I do not want to see it any further N than what the Euro had it overnight otherwise the heaviest snows move N and E into New England again along with it. Im prepared for that but hoping against it.

Jman that range I gave above did not mean that that entire area is in line for the significant snow but rather an axis somewhere in between can receive it. And Yes NYC metro is def included in this area.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:38 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Great write up Scott. This at least makes it clear don't be expecting any major storm although not impossible not likely at this time. However that invented trough as you've pointed out has been consistent on the models but where it lines up is impossible to judge. As long as it's over land someone in a narrow strip is going to be very happy. It's similar although not as drastic as in a lake effect scenario as to the extremes from town to town. I'm not expecting much but the chase is always interesting as long as you keep your emotions in check.

Exactly CP.  The wide spread mod to sig storm is def not off the table yet but statistically speaking is less likely unless the trough digs.  Unfort as Al pointed out in the other thread the GFS has been slowly trending north with the closed low track.  I do not want to see it any further N than what the Euro had it overnight otherwise the heaviest snows move N and E into New England again along with it.  Im prepared for that but hoping against it.  

Jman that range I gave above did not mean that that entire area is in line for the significant snow but rather an axis somewhere in between can receive it.  And Yes NYC metro is def included in this area.  

No no I understood that part, I can see even on the surface maps now that there are sharp cutoffs around NYC area and a jackpot area over LI verbatim, so it is probably going to be a nowcast wouldn't u think? Unless something happens to make it more widespread but from what u are explaining it seems less likely.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:57 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Great write up Scott. This at least makes it clear don't be expecting any major storm although not impossible not likely at this time. However that invented trough as you've pointed out has been consistent on the models but where it lines up is impossible to judge. As long as it's over land someone in a narrow strip is going to be very happy. It's similar although not as drastic as in a lake effect scenario as to the extremes from town to town. I'm not expecting much but the chase is always interesting as long as you keep your emotions in check.

Exactly CP.  The wide spread mod to sig storm is def not off the table yet but statistically speaking is less likely unless the trough digs.  Unfort as Al pointed out in the other thread the GFS has been slowly trending north with the closed low track.  I do not want to see it any further N than what the Euro had it overnight otherwise the heaviest snows move N and E into New England again along with it.  Im prepared for that but hoping against it.  

Jman that range I gave above did not mean that that entire area is in line for the significant snow but rather an axis somewhere in between can receive it.  And Yes NYC metro is def included in this area.  

No no I understood that part, I can see even on the surface maps now that there are sharp cutoffs around NYC area and a jackpot area over LI verbatim, so it is probably going to be a nowcast wouldn't u think? Unless something happens to make it more widespread but from what u are explaining it seems less likely.

Exactly

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:20 am

Great analysis as always Scott. For everyone's enjoyment - Joe Cioffi's take.

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/european.html

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:26 am

Great job Scott and a great read Amugs. I think coastal areas are in good shape at this current time
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:33 am

Bernie just released video, thinks SNE is gonna get blasted. Which means we aren't out of the woods...
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:40 am

Sne is friggin redox sucks! I'll take a look at his video but he was all about new england not midatlantic which our area is considered except for ct.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:41 am

@amugs wrote:Great analysis as always Scott. For everyone's  enjoyment - Joe Cioffi's take.

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/european.html
I hope his enthusiasm is right.
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Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:49 am

I like Bernie gets into it close call looks good north and east of ny city lets hope everyone gets it this time!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:03 am

Still caution that we need a lot of pieces to fall into place in order for this storm to benefit us. We do not have blocking so it's imperative the western ridge is there to dig the H5 energy as far south as possible, which would spawn the surface low off the coast of DE or NJ.

On the 12z GFS, without even looking at H5, I can tell there was no digging because the surface low formed off the coast of New England. In a progressive pattern, this fits the seasonal trend we have seen the last month or so.

The potential is certainly there for a Godzilla. But I remain cautiously optimistic at this point.

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

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Post by devsman Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:09 am

I think we see the trend shifting to the north so the RED SOX SUCK gets it again. We're dying for it and their dying for a break. Amazing!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:12 am

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Eps_pna_bias

PNA trending negative on the models. Not good. Need to see this reverse quickly. Still time with this, so we'll see.

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:20 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL Eps_pna_bias

PNA trending negative on the models. Not good. Need to see this reverse quickly. Still time with this, so we'll see.

PNA's breaking down and the system is more progressive on that run. I mean, congrats for Nova Scotia? ;-)
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