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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:56 pm

Im honest here what trends the gfs is north someone mentioned cmc is only in its own ensemble euro was good I guess and know the Not A Model cant really count on that its not in range yet. As Frank Stated we need a lot of help. Also the Thursday storm is not a block
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Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:00 pm

with whatever snow we get Saturday night the ratios will be very good and it will not take a lot to get some ok snow totals.

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Post by crippo84 Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:02 pm

NWS Taunton is discounting the GFS saying it is too far north per latest forecast discussion.

MODELS INDICATE A DEEP TROP FOLD
WHERE THE 2.0 DYNAMIC TROP REACHES AS LOW AS 550HPA AND THE 1.5 AS
LOW AS 750HPA. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE COLD AND VERY AMPLIFIED
POTENTIAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS IS LIKELY JUST TOO FAR N
SO WILL BE FAVORING THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:06 pm

Lee said he's looking at some new data right now and he'll give his thoughts on the weekend threat later on
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:14 pm

[quote="RJB8525"]Lee said he's looking at some new data right now and he'll give his thoughts on the weekend threat later on[/quote

Hmm. 18z data? It's kinda the crappiest, no? Anyway will be interesting to hear him (he's my fav!) but I'm certain he's not buying a major threat for us just yet.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:18 pm

INCIDENTALLY,, hearing trough was sharper on 18z GFS. On my phone so can't verify.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:50 pm

If sharper no good correct
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:54 pm

Better skins. But a lot still has to happen. Overall not a great run for any of us.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:59 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:If sharper no good correct
A sharper trough is a good thing. We need a number of things to go our way, but the more our 500mb low digs, the better it will be for us. The 18z GFS showed some improvements in the upper levels, and I think it will cave by 12z tomorrow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 6:08 pm

Suggest you all give this blog a read, written from earthlight (a pro Met)

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/02/11/significant-storm-possible-weekend-details-uncertain/

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 11, 2015 6:19 pm

A good read Frank. Also a good cold slap in the face that I needed. At this time expecting this to be any more than a glancing blow for most of us would be setting yourself up for disappointment. However all is not yet lost and nothing is set in stone here yet. As always we sit and wait but that's half the fun.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 6:19 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Suggest you all give this blog a read, written from earthlight (a pro Met)

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/02/11/significant-storm-possible-weekend-details-uncertain/

In laments terms, no blizzard for us. Lol
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 6:21 pm

I'm not expecting much we need a lot to go right and it seems less is so I would expect this to go north were they have been going Its The Pattern of 2015
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 11, 2015 6:24 pm

Lee thinks takes too long to develop to give us big snows but gives us some, B gets the big snows possibly he said next couple of hrs will iron things out
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 6:29 pm

Is their a strong H to our north for this event.
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Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:11 pm

being in Dutchess i am expecting at least some snowfall with temps near 5 on Saturday it doesn't take a lot!

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Post by Guest Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:14 pm

A bunch of people presumably read the blog from metro weather and now......silence. Why? A big storm has never been a solid possibility for our area. Possible yes, but most likely our "friends" North and East again.

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Post by psv88 Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:27 pm

My call.

The whole area sees about 1/2 inch tomorrow.

This weekend its a general 1-3/2-4 at a minimum, with a ceiling of 6+ Eastern new jersey to LI.

The vort coming out of the lakes is very potent and despite the offshore track, which has been trending SW every run, i think decent QPF will make it west.

There is a clear trend on all the models now towards at least maintaining SOME snowfall for the area, and in reality, most have trended towards a snowier solution.

That being said, this may come down to nowcasting, as these setups are unpredictable, at best.

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:30 pm

2 words have been the death of us and haunted us all winter. nowcasting and North lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:51 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:2 words have been the death of us and haunted us all winter. nowcasting and North lol

It's very true. There's just not enough blocking for this weekend. I won't get excited at all unless we're still modeled by 12z Friday to get hit.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:53 pm

syosnow94 wrote:A bunch of people presumably read the blog from metro weather and now......silence.  Why?  A big storm has never been a solid possibility for our area.  Possible yes, but most likely our "friends" North and East again.

"Never" is a definitive word. Even the guy who wrote the blog said the EURO today showed KU potential. We just don't have the proper ingredients. But as PSV said, a light to moderate snow remains a possibility. Nowcast.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:31 pm

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 5 Post-6-0-99312500-1423704283

Srefs spread is south of previous run. Good news to start the 00z runs

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:33 pm

It's digging more correct frank
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Post by hyde345 Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:35 pm

Saw Bernie Rayno's latest video. Seems like he's leaning towards Euro solution right now.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:58 pm

Yes skins

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