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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:21 am

GFS says hey coastal NE You want another snow storm??

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:43 am

12z CMC looks great

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:44 am

G___DAMMIT. #GGEM #SUCKSMEBACKIN
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:45 am

Lol. That run, with ratios. Good lord.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:47 am

Cmc looks great for north not me on coast lol I liked the cmc 6zbetter
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:49 am

nice hit from CMC
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:51 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z CMC looks great

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

S%$#, F%$#@, C&^%$, Why cant that just verify. I digress. How I love thee Inverted trough

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:51 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:G___DAMMIT. #GGEM #SUCKSMEBACKIN

You can't live and die off every model run. You will go crazy. I can only post surface maps now, but I am sure GGEM dug H5 much better than GFS

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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:52 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z CMC looks great

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

Very nice for me in the HV.

Encouraging run and especially with the ratios to be there at the time.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:54 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:12z CMC looks great

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

S%$#, F%$#@, C&^%$, Why cant that just verify.  I digress.  How I love thee Inverted trough

This model blasts you good, Doc!

Hits me pretty nice as well.

Here's hoping!
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:56 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:G___DAMMIT. #GGEM #SUCKSMEBACKIN

You can't live and die off every model run. You will go crazy. I can only post surface maps now, but I am sure GGEM dug H5 much better than GFS

Oh I know. Which is why I am going crazy! A good run gives me hope again. ;-)

However; Hearing that the position of low was further north on this CMC run vs. 00z, and that it continues the trend north like the GFS. I don't know how one can call that a trend though with only one GFS run.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:57 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:G___DAMMIT. #GGEM #SUCKSMEBACKIN

You can't live and die off every model run. You will go crazy. I can only post surface maps now, but I am sure GGEM dug H5 much better than GFS

Frank it actually dug less than over night but the energy is much stronger than the GFS. The ULL passes just south of LI which is north or prev runs (see the image I posted to start the thread); whereas, the GFS tracks the ULL over LI. Unfort this is also a N trend and will prob, but not def, continue. CMC goes nuts with the inverted trough.
[img]FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 Cmc_z513[/img]
[img]FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 2 Cmc_z514[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:57 am

Until we KNOW the 500 mb dips further south, caution Caution CAUTION.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:58 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:G___DAMMIT. #GGEM #SUCKSMEBACKIN

You can't live and die off every model run. You will go crazy. I can only post surface maps now, but I am sure GGEM dug H5 much better than GFS

Oh I know. Which is why I am going crazy! A good run gives me hope again. ;-)

However; Hearing that the position of low was further north on this CMC run vs. 00z, and that it continues the trend north like the GFS. I don't know how one can call that a trend though with only one GFS run.

Its actually two, 6z and now 12 z are both N of last nights 00z and yesterdays 12 and 18z.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:59 am

i will not really pay attention until this storm tomorrow gets out of the way but i will still look.

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:01 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:G___DAMMIT. #GGEM #SUCKSMEBACKIN

You can't live and die off every model run. You will go crazy. I can only post surface maps now, but I am sure GGEM dug H5 much better than GFS

Oh I know. Which is why I am going crazy! A good run gives me hope again. ;-)

However; Hearing that the position of low was further north on this CMC run vs. 00z, and that it continues the trend north like the GFS. I don't know how one can call that a trend though with only one GFS run.

Its actually two, 6z and now 12 z are both N of last nights 00z and yesterdays 12 and 18z.  

Ah, gotcha. Well this whole setup screams no-go for our area so it doesn't surprise me. We need an anomaly.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:01 pm

Doc if the 12z CMC verified I would push 2feet + easy with ratios.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:05 pm

At this rate of trending North Nova Scotia will have the trough by the time the storm happens!! If this was 12 hours before the storm I would be rejoicing but not how models are handling things these days and model to model run will cause burn out, hysteria and the men in white jackets to haul you away.

Listen we have no blocking - east based NAO is not going to do it - we can hope for other factors to help us like the ridge in the west for one or a 50/50 block from the Thursday storm, get the heights to rise on the EC more than modeled as well.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:08 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:G___DAMMIT. #GGEM #SUCKSMEBACKIN

You can't live and die off every model run. You will go crazy. I can only post surface maps now, but I am sure GGEM dug H5 much better than GFS

Oh I know. Which is why I am going crazy! A good run gives me hope again. ;-)

However; Hearing that the position of low was further north on this CMC run vs. 00z, and that it continues the trend north like the GFS. I don't know how one can call that a trend though with only one GFS run.

Its actually two, 6z and now 12 z are both N of last nights 00z and yesterdays 12 and 18z.  

Ah, gotcha. Well this whole setup screams no-go for our area so it doesn't surprise me. We need an anomaly.

Im with ya 100%. The anomaly will be the inverted trough. Unfort one of the bias' of the CMC is to over due it on the strength of systems so Im not 100% convinced on its aggressive QPF output regardless of track. As long as we can get the ULL to pass just south of LI instead of right over or even worse N of, Inverted trough may do the dirty work for alot of us. Like I said in earlier post I think Monmouth county; maybe as far south as Toms River is still in the game...as long as the UUL track is South of LI. South of LI...S of LI..hmmmmmmmmmmm SSSSSSOOOUUTTHHHHHHHH OF LLLIIIIII

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:09 pm

H5 low goes directly over ACY and then south of Block Island. That's what needs to happen.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CHANT CMC CMC CMC!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:13 pm

Losing interest the north trend begins we have 4 days so not looking so good
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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:22 pm

Funny thing, last year around this time, everything started going south with the suppression. Tough area we live in to get things just right.Now, too far north.
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Post by Guest Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:29 pm

The north trend is starting earlier than it has been for prior storms (usually inside of 3 days) Maybe it gives the models time to trend further south as we get inside of 2 days??

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:46 pm

Sign me up for the CMC lock stock and barrel, but I am cautious about it with his higher qpf bias and blowing lows up. If we do not get snow sunday will be very high winds and ridiculous cold, no fun there at all. Even in my book the wind man.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:49 pm

Not enthused that even the foreign models are trending north with H5. Come on western ridge, HANG IN THERE

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