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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:07 pm

Several things here that should make us all uneasy. The biggest thing being that it's the NorlunTrough that gives us most of the snow on the CMC maps. Those are impossible to call the day before, much less three days before. If I'm wrong someone let me know, until then I'd temper the enthusiasm as best we can, myself included.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Starting to get a train wreck feeling here.  Please have the Euro runs up by 1:05 when I check back in.  I'm taking frank's advice and relaxing till tonight (as far as telling other people).  If tonight looks good though I'm all in going banana's!! silent silent Very Happy Very Happy

maybe euro and N eh em for safe keeping model should be left in banter LOL

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:10 pm

Right now, some positive indications, but you are right to temper it down.Long way to go here but nice to see this get further south.Late Friday night I'll really believe.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:11 pm

we have the model jitters
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:11 pm

If the trends continue south tonight I'll be impressed maybe it's time for it to turn around
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:syo, 12z euro will not be out on wxbell anyways by 1:05 lol maybe franks site will its a lot faster.

I don't even bother to look at wxbell. I wait for Frank to translate for me. I'm the junkie he's my dealer! Wink

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:14 pm

why the euro? its within 96 hrs, and a very good model if not the best by manys belief. I think anyone would agree the not a model not even looking at.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:14 pm

you have to subscribe to wxbell, as does frank to storm vista, which I am seriously thinking about switching to.
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Post by Artechmetals Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:17 pm

Might be a stupid question as I really don't know much about models but can these trends be confusing the models due to this clipper coming thru
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Post by WOLVES1 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:18 pm

I don't know the GFS has been king lately now it will show a big hit and go back to being a jester.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:19 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Several things here that should make us all uneasy. The biggest thing being that it's the NorlunTrough that gives us most of the snow on the CMC maps. Those are impossible to call the day before, much less three days before. If I'm wrong someone let me know, until then I'd temper the enthusiasm as best we can, myself included.

You're right. That's why I'm tracking the upper air maps more than the surface.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:20 pm

By April I drop both Wxbell and SV. Might keep Wxbell now that I'm working.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:25 pm

why no storm vista thought it was better? wxbell has more detailed maps though.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:41 pm

One reason I like the 12Z CMC over the 0Z CMC: We have plans to celebrate my grandmother's 90th birthday in Floral Park, NY (ZIP 11001) on Saturday from 3 PM to 7 PM. Unlike the 0Z CMC, the 12Z CMC waits until after the party is over to get the snow here.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:42 pm

FWIW the 12z GFS ensemble mean does not keep H5 closed off as it passes over our area, but there are maybe 25% or so that do. However, that cluster is actually NORTH of the Operational.

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Post by Artechmetals Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:50 pm

Rb , good or bad ? Don't understand
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:52 pm

ABC doesn't apparently like any trends, Bill Evans says about 1 inch or so Sat into Sunday
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:55 pm

RJB8525 wrote:ABC doesn't apparently like any trends, Bill Evans says about 1 inch or so Sat into Sunday

To be clear, some of these trends need more trending. We're not where we want to be yet.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:55 pm

RJB8525 wrote:ABC doesn't apparently like any trends, Bill Evans says about 1 inch or so Sat into Sunday

And he may be right. No definitive answers yet so no ones going to go out on a limb this early.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:56 pm

Rayno just tweeted 'initial accumulation' thoughts for weekend: has NYC in 2-3"

What a smack in the face.
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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:56 pm

not going to say much about the trends if this continues they will update tomorrow plus i think they are going by GFS!

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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:58 pm

I still think this is a 3-6 area wide but i am getting excited what comes next that's for another banner!

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:00 pm

I never doubt ABC but like you said Frank we needs a lot more things going for us here
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:04 pm

ECM

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 11 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:05 pm

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 11 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:06 pm

1"??

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:06 pm

Looks same as 12z to me. Even aloft

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 11 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f69

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