FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
Several things here that should make us all uneasy. The biggest thing being that it's the NorlunTrough that gives us most of the snow on the CMC maps. Those are impossible to call the day before, much less three days before. If I'm wrong someone let me know, until then I'd temper the enthusiasm as best we can, myself included.
Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
syosnow94 wrote:Starting to get a train wreck feeling here. Please have the Euro runs up by 1:05 when I check back in. I'm taking frank's advice and relaxing till tonight (as far as telling other people). If tonight looks good though I'm all in going banana's!!
maybe euro and N eh em for safe keeping model should be left in banter LOL
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
Right now, some positive indications, but you are right to temper it down.Long way to go here but nice to see this get further south.Late Friday night I'll really believe.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
we have the model jitters
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
If the trends continue south tonight I'll be impressed maybe it's time for it to turn around
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
jmanley32 wrote:syo, 12z euro will not be out on wxbell anyways by 1:05 lol maybe franks site will its a lot faster.
I don't even bother to look at wxbell. I wait for Frank to translate for me. I'm the junkie he's my dealer!
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
why the euro? its within 96 hrs, and a very good model if not the best by manys belief. I think anyone would agree the not a model not even looking at.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
you have to subscribe to wxbell, as does frank to storm vista, which I am seriously thinking about switching to.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
Might be a stupid question as I really don't know much about models but can these trends be confusing the models due to this clipper coming thru
Artechmetals- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
I don't know the GFS has been king lately now it will show a big hit and go back to being a jester.
WOLVES1- Posts : 103
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Several things here that should make us all uneasy. The biggest thing being that it's the NorlunTrough that gives us most of the snow on the CMC maps. Those are impossible to call the day before, much less three days before. If I'm wrong someone let me know, until then I'd temper the enthusiasm as best we can, myself included.
You're right. That's why I'm tracking the upper air maps more than the surface.
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
By April I drop both Wxbell and SV. Might keep Wxbell now that I'm working.
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
why no storm vista thought it was better? wxbell has more detailed maps though.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
One reason I like the 12Z CMC over the 0Z CMC: We have plans to celebrate my grandmother's 90th birthday in Floral Park, NY (ZIP 11001) on Saturday from 3 PM to 7 PM. Unlike the 0Z CMC, the 12Z CMC waits until after the party is over to get the snow here.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
FWIW the 12z GFS ensemble mean does not keep H5 closed off as it passes over our area, but there are maybe 25% or so that do. However, that cluster is actually NORTH of the Operational.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
Rb , good or bad ? Don't understand
Artechmetals- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
ABC doesn't apparently like any trends, Bill Evans says about 1 inch or so Sat into Sunday
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
RJB8525 wrote:ABC doesn't apparently like any trends, Bill Evans says about 1 inch or so Sat into Sunday
To be clear, some of these trends need more trending. We're not where we want to be yet.
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
RJB8525 wrote:ABC doesn't apparently like any trends, Bill Evans says about 1 inch or so Sat into Sunday
And he may be right. No definitive answers yet so no ones going to go out on a limb this early.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
Rayno just tweeted 'initial accumulation' thoughts for weekend: has NYC in 2-3"
What a smack in the face.
What a smack in the face.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
not going to say much about the trends if this continues they will update tomorrow plus i think they are going by GFS!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
I still think this is a 3-6 area wide but i am getting excited what comes next that's for another banner!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
I never doubt ABC but like you said Frank we needs a lot more things going for us here
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
ECM
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
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Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
Looks same as 12z to me. Even aloft
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