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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 15 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:40 pm

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 15 NAM_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f60_png_v_1423773348

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 15 NAM_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f57_png_v_1423773224

that looks like a mess, wheres the defined LP?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:41 pm

Godzilla for LI.

Too bad its the Not A Model and blows mule balls, but it did trend positively which is not shocking looking at the SREFS

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 15 NAM_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f63_png_v_1423773535

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Post by Sunflowers138 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:42 pm

Blog tonight Frank?

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:43 pm

here we go, winter storm neptune from TWC
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Post by Sunflowers138 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:43 pm

Neptune! Hahaha

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:44 pm

@Sunflowers138 wrote:Blog tonight Frank?

Yes, it's in the scroll

H5 was south of LI this run! Wow!

Models are heading in the right direction. Lets get the GFS there please

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 15 UuqO3tt

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:44 pm

Even with this trend, there are still only three (3) individual SREF members that are depicting H5 to close off in a favorable location; all others are still too far north.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500NE_15z/f63.gif

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:44 pm

ohhh Neptune I actually like that name sounds good for a memorable storm : ) Well for someone.
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Post by Sunflowers138 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:45 pm

Thanks Frank.. can't see the scroll because I'm mobile.

Look forward to the read later!

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:45 pm

MULE BALLS!! Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:45 pm

AND this 18z Not A Model lmao 00z/12z runs are bad enough, let alone one that doesn't even include actual data lmfao

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:46 pm

Things are getting exciting
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:47 pm

I looked at not a model snow map, not impressive not sure how u got Godzilla for LI, unless they have 40:1 ratios, and wouldn't u know NYC and southern WC have a little knotch with almost nothing lol, im wirting this one off it also shows very little wind. mule balls lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:47 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Even with this trend, there are still only three (3) individual SREF members that are depicting H5 to close off in a favorable location; all others are still too far north.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500NE_15z/f63.gif

Right, but the PVA is well south on most. Should still bring in a nice IVT

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:49 pm

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 15 Sref_namer_069_500_vort_ht


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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Even with this trend, there are still only three (3) individual SREF members that are depicting H5 to close off in a favorable location; all others are still too far north.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500NE_15z/f63.gif

Right, but the PVA is well south on most. Should still bring in a nice IVT

I respectfully (of course) disagree. Your best vorticity is where the curvature is greatest, and winds are flowing cyclonically around that curvature. That being said, if the greatest curvature is being shown to be largely north of us, then the BEST advection is certainly to our north following the geostrophic wind/advection of that positive vorticity by the geostrophic wind. Now, there will still be PVA via the geostrophic wind, but the strongest of that will be focused north, which is what you see in postage stamps with their hints at the inverted trough setting up over southern/central New England.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:13 pm

Can someone explain to me how a 968 MB LOW sitting JUST off the coast of CC (ps, if Euro is correct, winds will be nuts out there) would only lead to 3-6" snows in NYC. Seriously? I always thought that's our perfect position for a big storm here. 40/70 then cruising to that very point.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:17 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Even with this trend, there are still only three (3) individual SREF members that are depicting H5 to close off in a favorable location; all others are still too far north.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500NE_15z/f63.gif

Right, but the PVA is well south on most. Should still bring in a nice IVT

I respectfully (of course) disagree. Your best vorticity is where the curvature is greatest, and winds are flowing cyclonically around that curvature. That being said, if the greatest curvature is being shown to be largely north of us, then the BEST advection is certainly to our north following the geostrophic wind/advection of that positive vorticity by the geostrophic wind. Now, there will still be PVA via the geostrophic wind, but the strongest of that will be focused north, which is what you see in postage stamps with their hints at the inverted trough setting up over southern/central New England.

I think what I am trying to say is since the PVA is south of us, combined with the south trends we have seen on most guidance, the SREFS are still correcting with the H5 upper low. It's very odd to see that much spacing in the mid-level trough between the H5 upper low and the vort at the base. Hence why we see subsidence on this run. I guess it could be right but I would expect to see everything more compact within the mid level trough.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:19 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Can someone explain to me how a 968 MB LOW sitting JUST off the coast of CC (ps, if Euro is correct, winds will be nuts out there) would only lead to 3-6" snows in NYC. Seriously? I always thought that's our perfect position for a big storm here. 40/70 then cruising to that very point.

This is all northern stream driven / Miller B type of set-up where the transfer is occurring over the state of NJ. There's going to be an area of subsidence / dry air involved. If you notice, most of the snow that falls in our area is not from the main surface low itself. It is from the norlun trough.

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:20 pm

Lee's working on a snow map later on, he thinks maybe some 5-6" amounts near CT
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:21 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Can someone explain to me how a 968 MB LOW sitting JUST off the coast of CC (ps, if Euro is correct, winds will be nuts out there) would only lead to 3-6" snows in NYC. Seriously? I always thought that's our perfect position for a big storm here. 40/70 then cruising to that very point.

This is all northern stream driven / Miller B type of set-up where the transfer is occurring over the state of NJ. There's going to be an area of subsidence / dry air involved. If you notice, most of the snow that falls in our area is not from the main surface low itself. It is from the norlun trough.

I think I get it...? Lol. Thanks, still learning. Man, atmospheric science!

And on that note, Blizzard Watches just hoisted for Beantown.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:25 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Can someone explain to me how a 968 MB LOW sitting JUST off the coast of CC (ps, if Euro is correct, winds will be nuts out there) would only lead to 3-6" snows in NYC. Seriously? I always thought that's our perfect position for a big storm here. 40/70 then cruising to that very point.

This is all northern stream driven / Miller B type of set-up where the transfer is occurring over the state of NJ. There's going to be an area of subsidence / dry air involved. If you notice, most of the snow that falls in our area is not from the main surface low itself. It is from the norlun trough.

I think I get it...? Lol. Thanks, still learning. Man, atmospheric science!

And on that note, Blizzard Watches just hoisted for Beantown.

I can't post maps for some reason right now, but if you look at H7 VV's they are tugging back toward the coast. Classic norlun signature

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:25 pm

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 15 2l9l36

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:26 pm

^ 18z RGEM might be holding serve

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