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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:27 pm

18z RGEM!!!!!!

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 16 GZ_D5_PN_054_0000


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:27 pm

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 16 P1_GZ_D5_PN_054_0000

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:28 pm

I am starting to sweat at my desk.

THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I am starting to sweat at my desk.

THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

QUICK!! Someone squirt the Itralian with the water gun!!

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Post by lglickman1 Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:33 pm

Given the inasnity of the models this winter do we take the rgem seriously or is it an outlier?

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:37 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z RGEM!!!!!!

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 16 GZ_D5_PN_054_0000


Ugh, I WISH I could screenshoot this and show you guys but I'm on my phone.

I tweeted Bernie Rayno about 18z RGEM and he replied! Said "not a fan of that..unreliable."

Great. Lol.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:38 pm

Lol soul i just read the tweet between you two after seeing your post
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:43 pm

With the RGEM looking like this, the 00z GGEM tonight might be even more south

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:45 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:Given the inasnity of the models this winter do we take the rgem seriously or is it an outlier?

Outlier. Need to see GFS/EURO cooperate

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:46 pm

Wow, I can not check model runs at work. I need a shower.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:47 pm

The 18z GFS APPEARS to be coming south.....!

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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:47 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:18z RGEM!!!!!!

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 16 GZ_D5_PN_054_0000


Ugh, I WISH I could screenshoot this and show you guys but I'm on my phone.

I tweeted Bernie Rayno about 18z RGEM and he replied! Said "not a fan of that..unreliable."

Great. Lol.
The RGEM is more reliable in the SR then the GEM. Same physics, just at a higher resolution and without some of GEMs errors with rapid cyclogenesis.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:49 pm

Yup, clearly south of 12z aloft

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:50 pm

Starting to see isobars pointing back toward the coast. Big step in the right direction from the 18z GFS. The models runs tonight at 00z will be huge.

I am out until 9pm. Ciao for now

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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:51 pm

lee said bigger totals north and east

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:55 pm

@jimv45 wrote:lee said bigger totals north and east

Yeah don't put on Lee/ABC if you want to stay optimistic LOL they pretty much have it dead already
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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:58 pm

i still will wait for tonight i think this has a chance to exceed his totals.

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:12 pm

all I have to say is O Canada.lol I'm starting to get very excited the RGM is a very good short range model very reliable especially this winter and as I said in a previous post we need to pay attention to the Not A Model and the rgem more than the global models.imo
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Post by Artechmetals Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:13 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:lee said bigger totals north and east

Yeah don't put on Lee/ABC if you want to stay optimistic LOL they pretty much have it dead already

Why are they holding back if models are trending ?
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:15 pm

the other thing I will say it's a good sign that all local Mets are downplaying this for us. how many times this winter have they talked about heavy snow for us 3 or4 days out and we end up with very little. that's a positive trend
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Post by lglickman1 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:16 pm

I bet its because the gfs and euro arent as bullish... yet

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:20 pm

Live chat tonight?

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:22 pm

Al two great points I am mobile and just got out of training RGEM is in range and the Mets downplaying waiting for the gfs to show some signs.

Gfs looks to be right over nyc - mobile do tough to see

Anyone help with this?

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Post by snow247 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:23 pm

Lee being very conservative on his snow map, 1-3 for most and 3-6 to the northeast.
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Post by Artechmetals Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:23 pm

Lee still not buying it yet , lee still has that low setting up north !
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