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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by mancave25 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:26 pm

Was the blizzard of 96 a Millar b storm and how did it produce so much snow

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:27 pm

With all due respect, do you think the January 26th-27th, 2015 bust may be why some meteorologists are being conservative with snow totals? I want to hear from the meteorologists on this page about this. Again, please do not take any offense to this.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:29 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:With all due respect, do you think the January 26th-27th, 2015 bust may be why some meteorologists are being conservative with snow totals?  I want to hear from the meteorologists on this page about this.  Again, please do not take any offense to this.

Lee also jumped all over last Mondays event like 5days out

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:29 pm

They gotta be, and NWS too. they had to come on air and literally explain how weather models work just to save face
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:30 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:With all due respect, do you think the January 26th-27th, 2015 bust may be why some meteorologists are being conservative with snow totals?  I want to hear from the meteorologists on this page about this.  Again, please do not take any offense to this.

Lee also jumped all over last Mondays event like 5days out

What do you mean?

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:34 pm

@mancave25 wrote:Was the blizzard of 96 a Millar b storm and how did it produce so much snow

It was a Miller A and originated over the gulf Coast of miss and Alabama and rode the coast

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:50 pm

Frank sweating lol. BUT the rgem snow totals were not very good or was that not important? 18z gfs surface looked same but h5 was south?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:53 pm

Beantown and into ri. Hoping tomorrow we get a wsw
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:53 pm

Our winds despite totals would still warrant that.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:54 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:With all due respect, do you think the January 26th-27th, 2015 bust may be why some meteorologists are being conservative with snow totals?  I want to hear from the meteorologists on this page about this.  Again, please do not take any offense to this.

Lee also jumped all over last Mondays event like 5days out

What do you mean?

Adding to your point Mike. When models were still showing wide spread 6-12+ with last Mondays system he was discussing it on air. It too trended further and further away as it go tcloser. Bottom line he as are many are in bed with the GFS until it caves. And to be honest I dont blame them right now. Huge runs tonight and tomorrow

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:56 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank sweating lol. BUT the rgem snow totals were not very good or was that not important? 18z gfs surface looked same but h5 was south?
It only runs out to 54 hours and 60 on its ensembles....so it wouldn't show much accumulations...If you extrapolated the run, it would be favorable given H5 and surface

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Our winds despite totals would still warrant that.

Not true Jman, you don't get WSW from winds, snow fall 6 inches or up, or significant snow combined with ice, that's it.

Blizzard warnings have to do with wind and visability not totals. Other than maybe eastern LI, I wouldn't expect either. I think you're jumping the gun here.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:06 pm

@amugs wrote:
@mancave25 wrote:Was the blizzard of 96 a Millar b storm and how did it produce so much snow

It was a Miller A and originated over the gulf Coast of miss and Alabama and rode the coast

With a huge frigid high to our north. It was 5 degrees in Orange county when the heavy snow started, I believe it was 13 in the city. There was 21.1 inches of snow at JFK, usually a warm spot, from that storm from 1.05 inches of liquid. Ratios were insane.
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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:06 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Our winds despite totals would still warrant that.

Not true Jman, you don't get WSW from winds, snow fall 6 inches or up, or significant snow combined with ice, that's it.

Blizzard warnings have to do with wind and visability not totals. Other than maybe eastern LI, I wouldn't expect either. I think you're jumping the gun here.
Correct, it could be a WWA/WSW with a high wind advisory/warning or any combination of such......

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:07 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Our winds despite totals would still warrant that.

Not true Jman, you don't get WSW from winds, snow fall 6 inches or up, or significant snow combined with ice, that's it.

Blizzard warnings have to do with wind and visability not totals. Other than maybe eastern LI, I wouldn't expect either. I think you're jumping the gun here.
Correct, it could be a WWA/WSW with a high wind advisory/warning or any combination of such......

Exactly
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:54 pm

if you remember the storm last march that was forecast to bring 1 to 2' of snow for us and ended up snowing in virginia. well the cmc was the only global model showing the southern solution. every other model right up to 60 hrs out had big snows for us. well hoping the cmc is right again. out for now be back at ten. i do not know why but i keep humming the canadian national athem and signing the words in my head. its been happening all afternoon. maybe i should go see my doctor tomorrow.lol
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:58 pm

THIS IS A GREAT POST BY A GUY FROM ANOTHER BOARD
he 18z RGEM could be a serious signal. I've been watching this one for about 10 days now. The orientation of the E Canadian pattern with the deep fetch cAA airmass and concurrent PV formation, in conjunction with a large PNA ridge, appeared primed for a detachment of the W end of the deteriorating vortex over Hudson's Bay. It has changed a bit since then into more of a Manitoba Mauler/Saskatchewan Sceamer of sorts, but the energy is still originating from the vortex. That, in itself, will make this forecast very difficult for the modeling to resolve until roughly 24-36 hours out with any sort of legitimacy.

Last night I was speaking with someone mentioning that it still would not take much of a shift in the positioning of the 500mb center to pull it further S and W. In these type of situations (or really anything with major gyres/vortexes involved, also PAC gyres for instance) it is around this timeframe, 60-72 hours out, that we will see dramatic shifts towards more amplified scenarios. It happened once in 2003 to a lesser extent, and again in 2005 and 2006 I believe.

If you take a look at the diffluence out ahead of it in the base of the trough (I'm attaching a zoomed in shot of the 18z GFS) along the eastern seaboard, it indicates a further push S than currently shown on the modeling. Usually this is a strong signal for a southward advance, albeit may only be slight. It sets up a "highway" in a sense.
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 17 Post-1821-0-50145300-1423783994

The 18z Not A Model is even edging slightly towards the RGEM scenario. If the RGEM is on the right track, this now puts even PHL, SE PA, N DE, and all of NJ in the game for significant to heavy snowfall for at least a short time. Especially the case if the SLP passes across DCA, BWI, SE MD as depicted by RGEM. What intrigued me the most on the Not A Model are the 700mb VV's fields that indicate significant forcing and pockets of vertical motion in a "deformation zone" like fashion hanging back all the way into SE PA, N DE and NJ, even though the SLP is significantly far E. Could just be the scheme resolving the prior versions of the NORLUN situation, though. I'm excited to see 00z trends.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:08 pm

Great read Amugs I understand some of it but it sounds like a good thing
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:24 pm

What he says it tremendous and that the models are not showing the true placement of where the LP is going to be south of where modeled by what he stats there. This is great news and HUGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE 0Z runs and 12Z runs as I have said all along.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:30 pm

I gotta say, I am friggen blown AWAY at how many snowfall maps I am seeing this evening on Twitter. I mean seriously?! It's Thursday.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:51 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I gotta say, I am friggen blown AWAY at how many snowfall maps I am seeing this evening on Twitter. I mean seriously?! It's Thursday.

exact same mistake people were making since Juno outside of our friends here
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:12 pm

@algae888 wrote:the other thing I will say it's a good sign that all local Mets are downplaying this for us. how many times this winter have they talked about heavy snow for us 3 or4 days out and we end up with very little. that's a positive trend

BINGO!!!!!

Just the way I like it,Local Mets practically brushing it off as a minor snow event.Remember BD, OTS then 1 to 3.

This is perfect!!!
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Post by Yschiff Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:53 pm

SREFS?

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:54 pm

@Yschiff wrote:SREFS?

Hearing they ticked south yet again
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Post by carvin1079 Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:56 pm

With that much cold air pushing south wouldn't we expect it to come south that cold air has to play a part correct

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