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FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:49 pm

moved to banter.


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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Not enthused that even the foreign models are trending north with H5. Come on western ridge, HANG IN THERE

Yeah Frank this would be beautiful if it can happn high ratio snow, wind, cold would be one to remember, mainly for the cold and wind though, unless that inverted trough goes nuts over the area. Still time, but come Friday if it still looks like this or worse I pretty much lose hope.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:58 pm

GEFS individuals look nice but mainly north of the GGEM

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 3 F90

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:07 pm

The Queen has initialized....
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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:13 pm

Everybody should kiss the EC right now lmfao

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:13 pm

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/ECM_12_opUS_P850TS_0084.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/ECM_12_opUS_P850TS_0090.png

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:13 pm

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/ECM_12_opUS_P850TS_0096.png

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:15 pm

Mother of god

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

H5 looked good, I would think the surface low was closer to the coast.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:16 pm

D@MN lol Screw you BOX lmao

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/snosums/0072/ECM_12_opUS_SF_0102.png

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:17 pm

I know we aren't 'allowed' to mention Boston, but it's my hometown so get over it for a second ;-)

ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!!! There are in dangerously big trouble. No joke. We aren't so bad on that run either...... Very Happy
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:18 pm

NYC was still 6+ inches this run. This was a tick away from an all out Roidzilla

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:NYC was still 6+ inches this run. This was a tick away from an all out Roidzilla

It moved 100 miles WEST! What a 'jog'.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:21 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Mother of god

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

H5 looked good, I would think the surface low was closer to the coast.

I wouldn't, here's why:

Even though H5 is closed off, keep in mind that the trough is still extremely positively tilted, so your mean steering flow (which is ripping, I might add, thanks to a crazy height gradient) is still west-southwesterly, which enables the surface low to continue to progress eastward against the "sucking" action of the intensifying mid- and upper-level cyclones.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:27 pm

A west movement, Frank you mean roidzilla for box right? That's nowhere in the cards verbatim for us now at this point or ever correct? You were speaking for box.
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Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:28 pm

more west it will come

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:28 pm

Yeah verbatim 10:1 nyc and north areas like me gets 6+, I will take it, need something to accompany this cold! But man oh man the snow map for eastern you know where! They don't need it bring it here, and look at those isobars over us on sunday, can you say high wind warning jesus!


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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:A west movement, Frank you mean roidzilla for box right?  That's nowhere in the cards verbatim for us now at this point or ever correct?  You were speaking for box.

He was speaking for us, JMAN. Boston is an all out Roid on that run, w/ 1-2 feet, 50-80mph winds and drifts for the Gods.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:31 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Mother of god

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

H5 looked good, I would think the surface low was closer to the coast.

I wouldn't, here's why:

Even though H5 is closed off, keep in mind that the trough is still extremely positively tilted, so your mean steering flow (which is ripping, I might add, thanks to a crazy height gradient) is still west-southwesterly, which enables the surface low to continue to progress eastward against the "sucking" action of the intensifying mid- and upper-level cyclones.

Great point. Trough axis orientation slipped my mind there.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:33 pm

Yeah I figured., 6+ ill take and I hope boston gets nothing, they probably do too.  Winds crazy here too 55-65mph+ especially LI. And they last but slowly subside from hours 96-120 on this run jesus, that could cause some serious problems if it played out. Models have been consistent on the wind, noticed the Euro backed off on such severe windchills (still bad though) which is odd being it shows stronger winds.

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 3 Euro_w11


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Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:34 pm

I think with the ratios if this storm just can get close enough its a 6 plus for almost everyone less to the west but its early

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:34 pm

Hell 6 would be awesome. B themselves don't want anything anymore they don't even know where to put stuff anymore
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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:36 pm

It's all good, Frank; we ALL get excited and lose track of things ahahaha Interesting note, this has hardly any upper-level jet dynamics to work with; it's all a product of low- and mid-level cyclone maturation. Imagine what it could be IF it DID have a favorable jet??? Wow lol

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:37 pm

This pattern is eerily similar to that bust blizzard of ours, no? And now the int'l models are against the GFS, and look who won last time with nailing northern stream energies...

I'm scurrrrred. Neutral
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:40 pm

The GFS won out right? So your saying you thin cmc and Euro may be wrong, I hope not we need something. Lets get a west trend going come on people odds are against us but stranger things have happened.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:40 pm

How did this look for Cnj coast
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