FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

The GFS won out right? So your saying you thin cmc and Euro may be wrong, I hope not we need something. Lets get a west trend going come on people odds are against us but stranger things have happened.

How did this look for Cnj coast

soul its way to early i think its anybody guess now i will start looking hard tomorrow night and Friday.

SoulSingMG wrote:This pattern is eerily similar to that bust blizzard of ours, no? And now the int'l models are against the GFS, and look who won last time with nailing northern stream energies...

I'm scurrrrred.  

Right there with ya, man; I'm not getting my hopes up at all. Just fun to watch lol

No one wants snow more than me, but "reading the tea leaves" here it seems like too many things are working against us to have this work out.
Trof. axis=no good
LP= too far north
Western Ridge=collapsing
QPF=.30 or less (yes I know high ratios)

I hope things trend west and south for all of us, but that would go against most meteorological science and guidance we have right now.  Still 3 and a half days away so lets hope.

syosnow94 wrote:No one wants snow more than me, but "reading the tea leaves" here it seems like too many things are working against us to have this work out.
Trof. axis=no good
LP= too far north
Western Ridge=collapsing
QPF=.30 or less  (yes I know high ratios)

I hope things trend west and south for all of us, but that would go against most meteorological science and guidance we have right now.  Still 3 and a half days away so lets hope.

Wow, this may be your best post on the forum yet :O

syosnow94 wrote:No one wants snow more than me, but "reading the tea leaves" here it seems like too many things are working against us to have this work out.
Trof. axis=no good
LP= too far north
Western Ridge=collapsing
QPF=.30 or less  (yes I know high ratios)

I hope things trend west and south for all of us, but that would go against most meteorological science and guidance we have right now.  Still 3 and a half days away so lets hope.

Well. There is ONE thing that could be our saving grace........

Tomorrow's clipper acting as a stronger 50/50 block down east of us.

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:No one wants snow more than me, but "reading the tea leaves" here it seems like too many things are working against us to have this work out.
Trof. axis=no good
LP= too far north
Western Ridge=collapsing
QPF=.30 or less  (yes I know high ratios)

I hope things trend west and south for all of us, but that would go against most meteorological science and guidance we have right now.  Still 3 and a half days away so lets hope.

Wow, this may be your best post on the forum yet :O

Frank I was thinking the same thing, way to go syo!

I have to post things like this every once in awhile because you are all so thin-skinned!

syosnow94 wrote:I have to post things like this every once in awhile because you are all so thin-skinned!

Omg it's so true hahaha. But this is the best WX forum on planet earth. K nuff banter.

Hey does anyone know how the NAVGEM looked? She can sometimes be a sneaky solid...

NavGem like GFS and Ukie like Euro

Rayno put out a new video shortly after his early morning on feels you know who and he sounded alarm dfor all out blizzard (little early?) he even said he isn't going to sound the alarm. Anyways said NYC maybe a little bit but it probably stays north, we will see.

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts as of 30mins ago.  I am a little more leary of this at this point, but he knows more than me.  Ill get excited on Monday IF Im digging out. I hope he is right at least for my back yard:

I am taking the Canadian version on this storm, which has a very intense snow bursts with the inverted trough and in the evolving cold sector of the surface cyclone. The jet stream seems to be aiding in a stringer southward push, so I think the low ends up off of Cape May NJ. Bottom line: a bigger event than many would think for NYC metro (wind and cold a factor), while southern New England (yes, Boston) take a brutal beating.

...the stakes for heavy snow in LI were definitely raised with this run. Keep in mind that it will be so cold and moisture will be present with strong vertical motion. I can see an "escape route" if the system shifted more eastward. But as of now, those GGEM snow totals, and more, look pretty good for LI.

sroc4 wrote:NavGem like GFS and Ukie like Euro

What about the N A M? JK

Where can I find euro snow map with ratios

boy its way early but this has a chance to be like last storm nothing much northern nj south and hyde me and you are right on the border of getting good snows if bernie is right!!! lets hope this goes more south!

SoulSingMG wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I have to post things like this every once in awhile because you are all so thin-skinned!

Omg it's so true hahaha. But this is the best WX forum on planet earth. K nuff banter.

Hey does anyone know how the NAVGEM looked? She can sometimes be a sneaky solid...

I agree. I love this place even though I get "yelled at" frequently. Love this place. frank has a winner here.

SREFS H5 spreads are impressive. Are pointing south with the H5 vort

All of this hinges on what happens aloft at H5 - need that dam ridge in the west peeps to stay UP - hey DOC - you have some blue pills you can shoot that way to pump it up - HAHAHA!

Is the upper low on the GFS   going to stay well  north or is it going to "dig" southward into Pennsylvania and force an intense storm to track further south and putting New York City and New Jersey at risk for big snows as well as Long Island, Connecticut? How I wish I we were good enough to figure it out 3 days ahead but as you can see it is still a tough ordeal. Here are the 3 upper air maps. WOW .

GFS


EURO - COME ON BABY!!!


CMC - PULLIN HARD HERE!!!

Don't expect big things lol The CMC is a pretty far southern outlier to its own ensemble.

rb924119 wrote:Don't expect big things lol The CMC is a pretty far southern outlier to its own ensemble.

Euro Ens don't look bad at all though

We need help from the gods to plunge this thing 100miles more south and then we are all in the game. I'm not a smart man with weather or anything but I do believe in miracles. Forget the troughs, axis, H5...no clue with any of it. Just plunge that low south west 100 miles and we will have a fun friday nite and even better saturday nite. I'LL BRING THE REDBULL AND VODKA!

At this point, would you say that it is a safe bet that the likely jackpot area will be NE again, and the only question is how much the tri-state area can get in on the action, maybe very little, may be a decent amount, but definitely not the jackpot, correct? or no?

Im not too optomistic about this, if anything looks like another LI/SNE special.

lglickman1 wrote:At this point, would you say that it is a safe bet that the likely jackpot area will be NE again, and the only question is how much the tri-state area can get in on the action, maybe very little, may be a decent amount, but definitely not the jackpot, correct? or no?

Given the upper air set up, I think it's safe to say NE is in a much better position than we are. We need 3 key criteria to come together:

1. Amplified western ridge
2. H5 vort south of us
3. Negative tilted trough

If just one of those three things are not fulfilled, this storm will either be a glancing blow or effect an isolated area with the inverted trough

The 18z Not A Model has the H5 low 150 miles south of the 12z run. Yeah it's the Not A Model but these are the kinda trends we want.

SoulSingMG wrote:The 18z Not A Model has the H5 low 150 miles south of the 12z run. Yeah it's the Not A Model but these are the kinda trends we want.