NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

+34
snow247
Sunflowers138
H.G. Rising
gigs68
algae888
Math23x7
WOLVES1
Artechmetals
Mannyjaffe
HEATMISER
aiannone
hyde345
psv88
nutleyblizzard
crippo84
NjWeatherGuy
lglickman1
Vinnydula
docstox12
RJB8525
devsman
Frank_Wx
jimv45
SoulSingMG
skinsfan1177
amugs
Quietace
CPcantmeasuresnow
jmanley32
rb924119
weatherwatchermom
oldtimer
sabamfa
sroc4
38 posters

Page 4 of 18 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 11 ... 18  Next

Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:41 pm

soul its way to early i think its anybody guess now i will start looking hard tomorrow night and Friday.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1142
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:41 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:This pattern is eerily similar to that bust blizzard of ours, no? And now the int'l models are against the GFS, and look who won last time with nailing northern stream energies...

I'm scurrrrred.  Neutral

Right there with ya, man; I'm not getting my hopes up at all. Just fun to watch lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Guest Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:43 pm

No one wants snow more than me, but "reading the tea leaves" here it seems like too many things are working against us to have this work out.
Trof. axis=no good
LP= too far north
Western Ridge=collapsing
QPF=.30 or less (yes I know high ratios)

I hope things trend west and south for all of us, but that would go against most meteorological science and guidance we have right now.  Still 3 and a half days away so lets hope.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:44 pm

syosnow94 wrote:No one wants snow more than me, but "reading the tea leaves" here it seems like too many things are working against us to have this work out.
Trof. axis=no good
LP= too far north
Western Ridge=collapsing
QPF=.30 or less  (yes I know high ratios)

I hope things trend west and south for all of us, but that would go against most meteorological science and guidance we have right now.  Still 3 and a half days away so lets hope.

Wow, this may be your best post on the forum yet :O

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:No one wants snow more than me, but "reading the tea leaves" here it seems like too many things are working against us to have this work out.
Trof. axis=no good
LP= too far north
Western Ridge=collapsing
QPF=.30 or less  (yes I know high ratios)

I hope things trend west and south for all of us, but that would go against most meteorological science and guidance we have right now.  Still 3 and a half days away so lets hope.

Well. There is ONE thing that could be our saving grace........ Laughing

Tomorrow's clipper acting as a stronger 50/50 block down east of us.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:47 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:No one wants snow more than me, but "reading the tea leaves" here it seems like too many things are working against us to have this work out.
Trof. axis=no good
LP= too far north
Western Ridge=collapsing
QPF=.30 or less  (yes I know high ratios)

I hope things trend west and south for all of us, but that would go against most meteorological science and guidance we have right now.  Still 3 and a half days away so lets hope.

Wow, this may be your best post on the forum yet :O

Frank I was thinking the same thing, way to go syo!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Guest Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:53 pm

I have to post things like this every once in awhile because you are all so thin-skinned! tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:55 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I have to post things like this every once in awhile because you are all so thin-skinned! tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue

Omg it's so true hahaha. But this is the best WX forum on planet earth. K nuff banter. tongue

Hey does anyone know how the NAVGEM looked? She can sometimes be a sneaky solid...
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:03 pm

NavGem like GFS and Ukie like Euro

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6974
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:09 pm

Rayno put out a new video shortly after his early morning on feels you know who and he sounded alarm dfor all out blizzard (little early?) he even said he isn't going to sound the alarm. Anyways said NYC maybe a little bit but it probably stays north, we will see.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:18 pm

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts as of 30mins ago.  I am a little more leary of this at this point, but he knows more than me.  Ill get excited on Monday IF Im digging out. I hope he is right at least for my back yard:

I am taking the Canadian version on this storm, which has a very intense snow bursts with the inverted trough and in the evolving cold sector of the surface cyclone. The jet stream seems to be aiding in a stringer southward push, so I think the low ends up off of Cape May NJ. Bottom line: a bigger event than many would think for NYC metro (wind and cold a factor), while southern New England (yes, Boston) take a brutal beating.

...the stakes for heavy snow in LI were definitely raised with this run. Keep in mind that it will be so cold and moisture will be present with strong vertical motion. I can see an "escape route" if the system shifted more eastward. But as of now, those GGEM snow totals, and more, look pretty good for LI.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6974
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:29 pm

@sroc4 wrote:NavGem like GFS and Ukie like Euro

What about the N A M? JK
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Vinnydula Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:31 pm

Where can I find euro snow map with ratios
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 772
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:34 pm

boy its way early but this has a chance to be like last storm nothing much northern nj south and hyde me and you are right on the border of getting good snows if bernie is right!!! lets hope this goes more south!

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1142
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Guest Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:40 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I have to post things like this every once in awhile because you are all so thin-skinned! tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue

Omg it's so true hahaha. But this is the best WX forum on planet earth. K nuff banter. tongue

Hey does anyone know how the NAVGEM looked? She can sometimes be a sneaky solid...

I agree. I love this place even though I get "yelled at" frequently. Love this place. frank has a winner here.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:53 pm

SREFS H5 spreads are impressive. Are pointing south with the H5 vort

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 GR8bG9E

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by amugs Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:01 pm

All of this hinges on what happens aloft at H5 - need that dam ridge in the west peeps to stay UP - hey DOC - you have some blue pills you can shoot that way to pump it up - HAHAHA!

Is the upper low on the GFS   going to stay well  north or is it going to "dig" southward into Pennsylvania and force an intense storm to track further south and putting New York City and New Jersey at risk for big snows as well as Long Island, Connecticut? How I wish I we were good enough to figure it out 3 days ahead but as you can see it is still a tough ordeal. Here are the 3 upper air maps. WOW .

GFS
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Bb699c10

EURO - COME ON BABY!!!
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 4b2cb110

CMC - PULLIN HARD HERE!!!
FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 1ae4c210

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12440
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:20 pm

Don't expect big things lol The CMC is a pretty far southern outlier to its own ensemble.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:25 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Don't expect big things lol The CMC is a pretty far southern outlier to its own ensemble.

Euro Ens don't look bad at all though
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by devsman Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:41 pm

We need help from the gods to plunge this thing 100miles more south and then we are all in the game. I'm not a smart man with weather or anything but I do believe in miracles. Forget the troughs, axis, H5...no clue with any of it. Just plunge that low south west 100 miles and we will have a fun friday nite and even better saturday nite. I'LL BRING THE REDBULL AND VODKA!
devsman
devsman
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 45
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by lglickman1 Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:00 pm

At this point, would you say that it is a safe bet that the likely jackpot area will be NE again, and the only question is how much the tri-state area can get in on the action, maybe very little, may be a decent amount, but definitely not the jackpot, correct? or no?

lglickman1

Posts : 234
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : New Rochelle, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:05 pm

Im not too optomistic about this, if anything looks like another LI/SNE special.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:13 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:At this point, would you say that it is a safe bet that the likely jackpot area will be NE again, and the only question is how much the tri-state area can get in on the action, maybe very little, may be a decent amount, but definitely not the jackpot, correct? or no?

Given the upper air set up, I think it's safe to say NE is in a much better position than we are. We need 3 key criteria to come together:

1. Amplified western ridge
2. H5 vort south of us
3. Negative tilted trough

If just one of those three things are not fulfilled, this storm will either be a glancing blow or effect an isolated area with the inverted trough

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:18 pm

The 18z Not A Model has the H5 low 150 miles south of the 12z run. Yeah it's the Not A Model but these are the kinda trends we want.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:50 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:The 18z Not A Model has the H5 low 150 miles south of the 12z run. Yeah it's the Not A Model but these are the kinda trends we want.
Thumbs up Thumbs up

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6974
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 18 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 11 ... 18  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum