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Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday

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Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Empty Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:40 am

This was a very well written AFD

A HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT WITH RESPECT TO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY/WARNING LEVEL COLD AND STRONG, POSSIBLY HIGH WIND IS STILL
ON OR CLOSE TO SCHEDULE FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH BETTER ON AREA WATERS WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS,
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AND MAYBE BLOWOUT TIDES.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN ELEMENT IS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRIGGERING CLOSED LOW HAS JUST ENTERED
CANADA AND WILL INITIATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT PASSES OUR
CWA. THE ATTENDANT DEEPENING LOW WILL FORM A NORLUN TROF WHICH WILL
BE A CONCENTRATED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. THIS FEATURE DEPENDS ON THE
EXACT PATH OF THE CLOSED AND SURFACE LOW. THE 00Z MODEL RUN SUITE
HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE TO EITHER NEW ENGLAND OR
LONG ISLAND/NYC. GIVEN HOW DIFFICULT ITS BEEN TO FORECAST SNOW THIS
WINTER WITH THE NEVER ENDING PARADE OF MILLER B LOWS, ITS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW FOR SURE THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR IN OUR
AREA. OUR PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS HAVE 1-2" SOUTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE/I195 CORRIDOR AND 2-5" NORTH OF THESE CORRIDORS.

THERE IS ANOTHER MOISTURE RICHER CONVENTIONAL LOW PREDICTED TO BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE START. THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING A
CHANGE TO NON-SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA, BUT THIS IS TOO
FAR IN THE FUTURE TO KNOW FOR SURE IF OR HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE.

FRIDAY...AFTER A VERY COLD START, CONDITIONS WILL RELATIVELY IMPROVE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. SKIES SHOULD
START MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARRIVING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. CONTINUING THE RUNNING THEME
(UNTIL IT PROVES US WRONG) THAT STAT GUIDANCE WILL BE TOO LOW WITH
MAX TEMPS, WE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP. IN FACT, THEY MAY RISE TOWARD MORNING. THIS GETS
TRICKY BECAUSE OF SNOW COVER NORTH AND CLOUD THICKNESS, SO HERE WE
STAYED CLOSER TO HOURLY STAT GUIDANCE.

ON SATURDAY, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT HAS
SHOWN A TREND AT WARMING THE COASTAL PLAIN FURTHER. IN FACT
PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS ARE NOW CREEPING ABOVE 0C. IN REALITY THIS IS
A BRIEF RESPITE TO THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIKELY
POPS IN SNOW ARE BROUGHT TO THE I95 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON. ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED BY NIGHTFALL ONCE WE GET
INTO NORTHERN NJ AS WELL AS FROM THE POCONOS TO THE FAR NORTHERN
PHL SUBURBS.

THEN ON SATURDAY EVENING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW
BURST, AS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS
BRING PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS TO 45-55 AND INDICATE SLANTWISE (AT
SEVERAL LEVELS) CONVECTION. THERE IS PREDICTED OMEGA IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION, MORE SO NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE
ANY NORLUN TROF FORMATION WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE SNOW. THERE ARE
STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES, BUT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL,
DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND THE TRIED BUT TRUE EXPRESSION THAT THERE IS
ALWAYS A SURPRISE UNDER A CLOSED LOW. WE WERE BULLISH BEYOND THE
MODEL PREDICTED QPF WITH THE SNOW.

RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIER SNOW IS PREDICTED TO PRECEDE THE INCREASING
WINDS WHICH SHOULD START CRANKING TOWARD MORNING. THE PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BOOMING LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH IS ABOUT 20 MB
TIGHTER THAN TONIGHT'S NEAR ADVISORY WIND EVENT. GIVEN A STATUS
QUO IN MODELING PROJECTIONS, WE WOULD EASILY GET INTO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA,
ESPECIALLY IN DELMARVA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. COUPLED WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS, ITS NOT A WELCOME COMBINATION FOR
POWER OUTAGES.

SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG WINDS, AND VERY
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST WINDS FOR THIS EVENT
SHOULD LIKELY OCCUR BY THE CONCLUSION OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WE WILL BE RIVALING RECORD LOWS FOR
THE DAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE A FACTOR WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORY/WARNING LEVELS POSSIBLY REACHED. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL THEN START MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH BEYOND DAY 5
SYSTEMS THIS WINTER TO DIVERT MUCH FROM CONTINUITY OR CLIMATOLOGY.

Usually, cold is always over-done in the long range. So I might add at least 5 degrees to these temps you see on the models, but I will keep track of it anyway because I think it's impressive. Maybe some of you stats guys can bless us with some interesting tidbits.

Temps. Sunday afternoon

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Gfs_t2m_b_nyc_16

Temps. Monday morning
Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Gfs_t2m_b_nyc_18

Wind chills 1pm Sunday (high temps are in the low teens or upper single digits)

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Gfs_windchill_nyc_15

Wind chills 7am Monday

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Gfs_windchill_nyc_18

affraid  affraid  affraid  affraid
Exclamation  Exclamation  Exclamation  Exclamation  Exclamation  Exclamation  Exclamation
white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag  white flag

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Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Empty Re: Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:43 am

LOL, raise the white flag! Where is this discussion (or is it not a discussion, and does upton have something similar?) To get those windchills we have to have wind lol duh, just thought that was funny Upton has a notation records:

WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
ZERO IN THE NYC METRO AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TO PUT THE RARITY OF THIS COLD AIR IN
PERSPECTIVE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED TO ZERO IN NYC IN OVER 20
YEARS...SINCE JANUARY 27 1994! THAT MONTH WAS ALSO THE LAST TIME NYC
DROPPED BELOW ZERO...ON JANUARY 19TH OF 1994 TO -2. THE LAST TIME
NYC DROPPED TO 1 DEGREE WAS JANUARY 10TH AND 16TH OF 2004...OVER 11
YEARS AGO.


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Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Empty Re: Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:45 am

Good thing there is no school, there is no way they would make kids tread to school on those temps. I guess these windchills will also depend highly on how high the winds gust, higher winds would mean a colder windchill no?
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Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Empty Re: Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:49 am

I forgot to talk about the winds, whoops!

Pressure gradients being closely compacted will result in high winds gusts along the coast. The backside of this incredible trough we'll see on Saturday night (same system that could give us snow) is bringing down with it temps. we usually see in the North Pole.

By Sunday afternoon, we should see wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph for those west and north of NYC, and 50-60mph for NYC and points east onto LI. I would not be surprised if there was a wind gust of 70+ mph on the east end

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Ecmwf_uv10g_nyc_16

**REMEMBER** WIND CHILLS ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW 0 SO THESE HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE GOING TO MAKE OUR DAY ON SUNDAY FEEL LIKE IT'S BETWEEN -10*F TO -20*F***

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:10 pm

Always remember the pets and elderly if you know people around you during days like this..especially record breakers
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:12 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I forgot to talk about the winds, whoops!

Pressure gradients being closely compacted will result in high winds gusts along the coast. The backside of this incredible trough we'll see on Saturday night (same system that could give us snow) is bringing down with it temps. we usually see in the North Pole.

By Sunday afternoon, we should see wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph for those west and north of NYC, and 50-60mph for NYC and points east onto LI. I would not be surprised if there was a wind gust of 70+ mph on the east end

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Ecmwf_uv10g_nyc_16

**REMEMBER** WIND CHILLS ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW 0 SO THESE HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE GOING TO MAKE OUR DAY ON SUNDAY FEEL LIKE IT'S BETWEEN -10*F TO -20*F***

Batten down the hatches, Nofo.Please be careful out there,buddy!!!
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:21 pm

Anyone on here loses power, find a way to PM me and come on over. Plenty of wood and the wood-burning stove that heats the entire house. Just BYOB!!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:22 pm

I am glad to know I was not making false calls on the wind potential but was waiting for franks true analysis. So for me I am kinda in between, NYC and N/W so im saying 45-55 for my area gusts that is. 50+ and you start having power outages in heavily treed areas, sporadic but I remember after Halloween those winds were about this if not less but granted there were leaves on the trees which makes them more susceptible to damage (with that storm there were many trees down and power outages but we escaped loss, so its less worrisome in the winter. I do not think there is anyway I am going out I nthat to measure the winds and windchill it'll be just too cold. I do have a ski mask goggles and sealable body wear though lol, yeah I am the prepared weenie
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone on here loses power, find a way to PM me and come on over.  Plenty of wood and the wood-burning stove that heats the entire house.  Just BYOB!!

Anyone closer to me want to make same offer? I am most worried bout how cold our apartment would get and the baby, not overly worried but its somewhat of a concern. LI def, as they will likely see higher end but from here east I think it could happen anywhere.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:52 pm

yikes euro trended even a bit colder especially areas north! The snow will pile up, even 3 inches will probably give us 6-10 of fluff, and b word conditions. I realize this is after most of the snow if not all.

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Windch11
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:39 pm

It's not really the temperatures that are all that impressive, when you consider NYC hit 4 lat year, 2 isn't a noticeable difference, the game changer is those winds. If as advertised it will be brutal.

The lows they have forecast for the HV, -5 or so, we have reached or exceeded this winter but on calm nights, again it's the winds that will be the big difference maker.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:09 pm

Just a thought if we get snow and when I say that I mean significant snow won't that lower temps on Sunday and Monday
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:13 pm

Wind is howling right now holy crap!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And the batteries in my anemometer went - mother fr!!!

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Post by psv88 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:17 pm

23.8 here and howling winds.

Its begun.

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:20 pm

Howling winds and 19°

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:45 pm

The wind is crazy I hear it outside my window and feel the vibration, and this is nothing compared to whats coming! Yikes
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:46 pm

19.3 gusts to 29, thats weather underground, I am not going out to measure lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:05 pm

In 15 min I am now down to 18 and dropping gusts 25-30mph.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:33 am

WIDE AWAKE Shocked  widows rattling...

my therm 9.8 degrees
w/u real feel -10
w/u wind n 24 gusts 35

arrrrr.....
octupus kid in bed...dog closer to me due to octupus kid and o/k has cold so snoring too!!...husband jumps ship to spare bedroom....going to be a long weekend.!! fun watching weather...not so fun sleeping..lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:56 pm

00z GFS temps. by 7pm Sunday

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Gfs_T2m_neus_9

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:57 pm

Not going to lie, models are beginning to cut back on the wind threat.

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_7

Maybe gusts 35-45mph instead of 50+mph (except for immediate coast).

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:58 pm

Nvm, that map is sustained winds not gusts

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:59 pm

00z GFS wind gusts Sunday morning around 7am between 50-60 mph in NJ

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Gfs_mslp_uv10g_nyc_7

Sunday 1pm wind chills near -20*F

Record Cold & Dangerous Wind Chills Sunday-Monday Gfs_windchill_nyc_8

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Post by elkiehound Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:21 am

Any update on wind forecast ? Are the models still cutting back ?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:44 am

the wind really has not cut back frank made a mistake above, that was a sustained wind map not gusts, still looking at 50-60mph gusts depending on where you are.
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