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Wx Banter Thread 1.0

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Post by H.G. Rising Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:12 am

Meteorology question:

I've noticed comments related to this regarding the upcoming storm this weekend; people continually reference back to previous storms and say "the last few trended north, so expect the same to happen with this one".  This will be said, even though there is nothing on any of the models to support it.  

Isn't this mindset similar to flipping a coin, and thinking that because it landed on heads last time, that heads is now a trend?  Why is what happened in a previous storm related to a current one when all of the conditions and setups are different? Doesn't seem intuitively right to me...
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:23 am

@H.G. Rising wrote:Meteorology question:

I've noticed comments related to this regarding the upcoming storm this weekend; people continually reference back to previous storms and say "the last few trended north, so expect the same to happen with this one".  This will be said, even though there is nothing on any of the models to support it.  

Isn't this mindset similar to flipping a coin, and thinking that because it landed on heads last time, that heads is now a trend?  Why is what happened in a previous storm related to a current one when all of the conditions and setups are different?  Doesn't seem intuitively right to me...

Great question.  To answer it you have to zoom out and look at the overall pattern over the last few weeks at the levels of the atmosphere that contains the energy that creates and guids our storms...that is the 500mb pattern, or approz 18,000-20000 feet above sea level.  The pattern to our north east, the NAO region, has been in the past one without blocking that leads to a faster more progressive flow off our coastline, and one in the west that has had nice ridging but because there is wave after wave of energy coming onto the western shores of Canada and the CONUS that our ridge gets flattened out right as our northern stream energy is trying to dig along the east coast.  The result of this has been key to the northern trend IMO.  The result of aflattened ridge is less of a south push to the trough which equals more northern track.  This is the problem on the west side of the trough.  The east side of the trough you have the lack of blocking.  

So the reason why thre is so much referencing to prev storms is not the because of the storms themselves, but rather the upper air patterns are still the same or similar leading to one to believe that the outcome will be the same or similar.  It doesn't mean however, that the outcome will infact be the same or similar as this set up is very different in many ways as much as there are similarities in a broader sense.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by dad4twoboys Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:26 am

@H.G. Rising wrote:Meteorology question:

I've noticed comments related to this regarding the upcoming storm this weekend; people continually reference back to previous storms and say "the last few trended north, so expect the same to happen with this one".  This will be said, even though there is nothing on any of the models to support it.  

Isn't this mindset similar to flipping a coin, and thinking that because it landed on heads last time, that heads is now a trend?  Why is what happened in a previous storm related to a current one when all of the conditions and setups are different?  Doesn't seem intuitively right to me...

It's all about factors (conditions) leading to a tilted outcome

Coin toss has 3 predictable outcomes:

1. Heads
2. Tails
3. Edge
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:41 am

@jmanley32 wrote:EURO!  I WISH UPON  A STAR LOL

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 5 Euro10

That's a funny map and nice fantasy. Pretty much our whole area shares in a a nice uniform 14-24 inches of snow. No one is cheated out and everyone shares equally? I think we tried this in many different countries and it didn't work out so well. I doubt it does on this map either, but it is fun to pretend.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:42 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:41 am

@smoggy14 wrote:The rattlesnake incident was starting to get some national attention.  Here's what NBC Dallas reported...


Rattlesnake Causes North Central Texas Radar Outage....

Thanks smoggy, that's great!
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:42 am

@docstox12 wrote:

The radar went out and the last thing anybody heard on the tape was "RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUNNNNN"!!

I was thinking the same thing doc, only with a expletive or two before hand.
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Post by deadrabbit79 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:24 am

Totally kind of off topic but i just turned off my twitter notifications for Jim Cantore he has been non stop tweeting about the snow in Boston for over 2 weeks now! I can't take it anymore. We get it, they got a lot of snow!

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:46 am

@deadrabbit79 wrote:Totally kind of off topic but i just turned off my twitter notifications for Jim Cantore he has been non stop tweeting about the snow in Boston for over 2 weeks now!  I can't take it anymore.  We get it, they got a lot of snow!

I love Cantore. Don't forget he's a NY guy born on Rome, NY. He just loves snow and if you do, this winter no place better than Boston. We're all just jealous myself included!!

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Post by deadrabbit79 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:50 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@deadrabbit79 wrote:Totally kind of off topic but i just turned off my twitter notifications for Jim Cantore he has been non stop tweeting about the snow in Boston for over 2 weeks now!  I can't take it anymore.  We get it, they got a lot of snow!

I love Cantore. Don't forget he's a NY guy born on Rome, NY. He just loves snow and if you do, this winter no place better than Boston. We're all just jealous myself included!!

I love him too..........ok you got me, yes it is my jealousy lol

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:02 pm

Here's some banter..news chans have reporters out reporting snow flurries and showers..............................
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:10 pm

I want to stay off the forum here for awhile so as not to get too excited about today's positive trends regarding both upcoming storm threats.....but I can't!!  I have another hand surgery coming up and will be stuck in the house in front of the fire taking Vicadin and the occasional beer, and I would like nothing more than cold and snow flying to look out at while I recoup!!

....most likely not taking both at once, but it depends on the track of the storm!! Wink Wink

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:13 pm

Ah, so for you not exactly the best time for being snowed in and lift a shovel
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:14 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I want to stay off the forum here for awhile so as not to get too excited about today's positive trends regarding both upcoming storm threats.....but I can't!!  I have another hand surgery coming up and will be stuck in the house in front of the fire taking Vicadin and the occasional beer, and I would like nothing more than cold and snow flying to look out at while I recoup!!

....most likely not taking both at once, but it depends on the track of the storm!! Wink Wink

Sorry about your hand, Jim, but you lucky sob with the Vicodin and beer. Happy days!!!!!
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:18 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:Ah, so for you not exactly the best time for being snowed in and lift a shovel

I have an industrial sized snow blower and a 12 year old son that's  trained on how to use one.  (while I watch of course)

Where are Quietace and some of my other Jersey weather freaks on this storm??

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:21 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@RJB8525 wrote:Ah, so for you not exactly the best time for being snowed in and lift a shovel

I have an industrial sized snow blower and a 12 year old son that's  trained on how to use one.  (while I watch of course)

Where are Quietace and some of my other Jersey weather freaks on this storm??

I'm here syo I'm in same town as Ace he's been quiet thhisyear probably bc we have had no luck lol
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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:32 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@RJB8525 wrote:Ah, so for you not exactly the best time for being snowed in and lift a shovel

I have an industrial sized snow blower and a 12 year old son that's  trained on how to use one.  (while I watch of course)

Where are Quietace and some of my other Jersey weather freaks on this storm??

I'm here syo I'm in same town as Ace he's been quiet thhisyear probably bc we have had no luck lol
I follow along at school and work on mobile, but between that, sleeping, and homework i don't have a lot of time to sit down and write analysis, but rather make small comments. I don't know how others do it haha

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:32 pm

@deadrabbit79 wrote:Totally kind of off topic but i just turned off my twitter notifications for Jim Cantore he has been non stop tweeting about the snow in Boston for over 2 weeks now!  I can't take it anymore.  We get it, they got a lot of snow!

I feel the same way and I've had over 4 feet of snow already this season. Enough is enough regarding the Red Sox Suck.
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Post by emokid51783 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:40 pm

Stupid question, but why has the south trend reared its (happy) head?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:58 pm

@emokid51783 wrote:Stupid question, but why has the south trend reared its (happy) head?

no questions are stupid, but I cannot answer that one : )
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:02 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I want to stay off the forum here for awhile so as not to get too excited about today's positive trends regarding both upcoming storm threats.....but I can't!!  I have another hand surgery coming up and will be stuck in the house in front of the fire taking Vicadin and the occasional beer, and I would like nothing more than cold and snow flying to look out at while I recoup!!

....most likely not taking both at once, but it depends on the track of the storm!! Wink Wink

Jim, here's wishing you a healthy hand, a raging fire, lots of snow, and just the right mix of Vicadin and beer*.

*the writer does not recommend the mixing of painkillers and alcohol, though it can be loads of fun when done correctly.
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:33 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I want to stay off the forum here for awhile so as not to get too excited about today's positive trends regarding both upcoming storm threats.....but I can't!!  I have another hand surgery coming up and will be stuck in the house in front of the fire taking Vicadin and the occasional beer, and I would like nothing more than cold and snow flying to look out at while I recoup!!

....most likely not taking both at once, but it depends on the track of the storm!! Wink Wink

Jim, here's wishing you a healthy hand, a raging fire, lots of snow, and just the right mix of Vicadin and beer*.

*the writer does not recommend the mixing of painkillers and alcohol, though it can be loads of fun when done correctly.

I'll be "careful" especially if it's snowing!! Wink Wink

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Post by H.G. Rising Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:43 pm

If anyone here reads The Economist, there is an article in this weeks edition about the EURO vs the GFS models, and the revamped GFS that just went into action a few weeks ago.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:02 pm

Same setup coming up, if you live west of the city dont get psyched into the hype for more than a few inches, we know whats gonna happen, we'll get 3"-5, LI will get a foot and Boston will get 2' along with interior new england. Dont get NEMOd again if u live west of NYC.  Mad
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:28 pm

Believe me, that's always in my mind knowing the trends of the last five years of everything being S and E of me (Mahwah NJ).Hate these sharp cutoff storms, give me a statewide big bomb like Jan 1996.
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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:33 pm

yea docs those have become a thorn in forecasting but i really like this Tuesday into Wednesday storm

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