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Post by RJB8525 Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:08 am

TWC was showing possibilities for sat/sun already have NYC of on the brink of major/minor Boston hammered again Evil or Very Mad
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:10 am

@RJB8525 wrote:TWC was showing possibilities for sat/sun already have NYC of on the brink of major/minor Boston hammered again Evil or Very Mad

Boston is not hammered again until it actually happens.

Granted the way things have been going I wouldn't bet against it.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:12 am

RJB, we aren't boston, I am as annoyed as anyone else but they will not see this again in their lives, but maybe we will as something like this has not come a long for us. So while it probably will not be this year in the years to come the weather weenies up there will be annoyed with us. I think sat/sun could be big even with little qpf due to the super high ratios due to the insane cold. I am covering my windows with garbage bags this week as we have bad drafts, that kind of cold is NOTHING to mess around with jesus.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:55 pm

I would love to move to SNE if I could. However, my wife wants to eventually move to a warmer climate. Hence my dilemma. confused
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:01 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:I would love to move to SNE if I could. However, my wife wants to eventually move to a warmer climate. Hence my dilemma. confused

Mine too Nutley. The soln is to make enough money to have a home in both climates. cheers Win Win

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:She walked over a street sign, had no clue

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 B9cUneGIIAABu7D

Dead serious she looks exactly like one of my ex-girlfriends.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:11 pm

If it makes anyone feel better the thurs/fri storm has trended to far out for boston to see too much of anything too on 12z Euro.
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:31 pm

I agree with Alex and CP. as alex stated and from what I've seen in the past it's very hard to get big snows when you have very cold arctic air pushing in. it's possible but rare. and CP I'm with you expect little and hopefully we get more but the way this winter is going showing snow storm after snow storm 3+ days out and then moving either north east or south away from us as we get closer to each system seems to be the trend this year. our best chance for widespread precipitation looks to be when the arctic air is retreating next week but then we have to worry about rain. it's been a very challenging year and frustrating. it would be nice just to have one storm go our way.
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:36 pm

I know a lot of us on here have hit or seasonal snow totals already but we've been walking a very thin line. and I think all of us would agree that not even one storm trended favorably for us as we got closer to each event. that's area-wide. some of us that live East or North of New York City have benefited but not the whole region for any particular storm
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:38 pm

For those who want to know a bit more about what a CCB is as well as the CCB bands that develop.  Here is the visual.  Obviously these are not all the same storm.  But you get the picture.  

The air in the cold air conveyor belt (CCB) travels underneath the air associated with the warm conveyor belt.  This is the basics of a warm frontal boundary.  With a strong intense LP to the NW of the LP the CCB banding sets up.  This is because there is enhanced lifting mechanisms in this zone.  The enhanced lift in these zones can lead to very heavy banding of precip.  That's the simple version.  I provided a little more technical version below the images:

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 <a href=Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 Images11" />
Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 <a href=Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 Sat_111" />
Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 <a href=Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 Gfs_pr12" />

  "Air in the cold conveyor belt originates in the lower troposphere of the downstream anticyclone(low pressure) and passes underneath the warm-frontal zone . Thus, the warm front separates the warm and cold conveyor belts. Potential vorticity(spin) is created in the cold conveyor belt beneath the area of latent heat release in the ascending warm conveyor belt. The increasing potential vorticity(spin) within the cold conveyor belt is transported westward toward the lower-tropospheric cyclone center. As demonstrated by Stoelinga (1996) and Rossa et al. (2000), the diabatically( latent heat released)-generated potential vorticity can enhance the cyclonic circulation about the surface cyclone without appreciably affecting the location and overall structure of the cyclone.
Since any precipitation generated within the warm conveyor belt must fall through the cold conveyor belt, the temperature and humidity of the cold conveyor belt can play an important role in controlling the type and amount of precipitation reaching the surface."

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by crippo84 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:46 pm

This is great sroc.  Thanks a lot for providing this.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:48 pm

@crippo84 wrote:This is great sroc.  Thanks a lot for providing this.

You bet

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:11 pm

Between Doc's CCB explanation and Alex's snow ratio analysis...we all have something to take away today.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:29 pm

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 B9gzZx3IcAAHgLC

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Post by essexcountypete Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Between Doc's CCB explanation and Alex's snow ratio analysis...we all have something to take away today.

We really do, and personally, as frustrating as the actual weather has been, it's been a season of learning for me. Between the complexities of the various set-ups along with the sheer amount of time I've spent during each of these threats looking at maps and models with you people, I really feel like a have better understanding of all the moving parts.

Everyone's efforts to share the knowledge is very much appreciated. Love this place.
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Post by Taffy Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:42 pm

Well said Pete. I have learned a lot. The more I've learned the more I know I have a lot more to learn and understand. The group did an amazing job on tutorials this year.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:09 pm

Just oput of sheer curiosity does anyone have that Eurowx snow map, that includes ratios? I would like to see that, even if its not impressive.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:19 pm

FWIW TWC local forecast 10 day has mutiple events and by the time 10 days is over I could have close to a new foot of snow as long as we do not get too warm, like 3 or so of 1-3 /2-4 events not counting if we see substantial snow on sat/sun. Winds going to be a issue (we know this obviously but I could see them getting to advisory criteria on thursday night (forecast is 20-30mph sustained and sunday is 20-30 sustained and in between its 15-25. Wind days ahead, and friggin cold!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:38 pm

18z GFS is holding steady below zero sunday/mon (even in city!) with wind chills as Frank said 20-30 below but way up north there are some spots probably mountains that top -40 below windchills! I would say def no school due to temps but school is off monday so everyone can stay inside warm. I do not have to go to work either. FWIW, 18z GFS has almost nothing for my area Thurs, but has 4-5 inches on sat, with ratios could approach 10 inches, I would be happy with that for sure. Just going verbatim, I understand this snow growth stuff and ratios are hard to predict but NWS even mentioned earlier 17:1, thats pretty specific lol
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 3 B9gzZx3IcAAHgLC

where is this frank? A rattlesnake? What the heck did it do? LOL
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 10, 2015 6:05 pm

Lee said winds will be howling gusts of 40-50 mph for the NYC metro area Sunday - wind chills -20 below as you said Jman plus and up to -40 below in burbs and rural outlying areas. Been saying since last week in long range and the folks do not know what is going to hit them this weekend.

Also said the cold and stormy pattern is with us at least for another week and a half and possibly until the end of the month. that is a good sign in itself - said we have to watch Saturday even for the NYC metro area if this coastal jogs north.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 10, 2015 6:10 pm

It's a waiting game now I guess for Thursday and hopefully a bigger event saturday
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Post by JackShephard Tue Feb 10, 2015 6:49 pm

https://youtu.be/9m4Ys8ceY0E

Not sure what year
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:30 pm

i'm not expecting anything at this point snow wise but -20 wind chill brutal isn't the word for Sunday. that will not be a funday Twisted Evil
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:34 pm

To early to tell this weekend's event it's quiet on here think everyone waiting to see what happens after this Thursday storm and where it sets up for the weekend storm. I will take a couple inches Thursday to get a significant snow Saturday.
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