Re: Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:15 am

algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:LOL, yeah well thats a pretty tight cut off i think we both see either or I cannot imagine such a cutoff, but i guess its possible.
a
with frank's map I will get 6.1" and you 5.9".lol

if franks map is right i could see 6 for me and maybe 8 for u, but thats no big deal to me its gonna be quite a storm, mostly for the cold and wind headlines, which is not too much fun, I will hope your home stays safe.
I think we will be ok. we faced worse than this many times. sunday will not be a nice day to be outside. unless your in the polar bear club and are heading to jones beach for a dip on sunday. wannna go?

ummm no lol, did that as a teen, wasn't too fun and wasn't this cold. Yeah we have had much more snow, just the winds bit concerning but yeah we have even had winds this strong its more the wind and cold and its for like a 18 hr period per the HWW. Anyone who loses power be prepared as frankie mcdoald from youtube would say (and he is gonna get hammered in nova scotia) get your pizzas get your chinese food! You gotta love the guy Bernie rayno even called him out on air, but got his forst name wrong dobt! Apparently Frankie has been bashing rayno, but most people do not know that he is autistic and even as a adult this makes life very hard and I am happy he has such a passion.

by **algae888** Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:16 am

from nws disco
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH THESE MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEMS...ALWAYS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND WHERE HEAVY SNOW
BANDING WILL DEVELOP/AND SIT. TYPICALLY THERE WILL BE SUBSIDENCE
AND A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE WEST OF BANDING...SO LIKELY SOME
STRONG SNOW GRADIENTS. SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE FORMULATED BY STAYING
CLOSE TO GENERAL OPERATIONAL CONSENSUS OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
PLACEMENT AND OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE QPF PLACEMENT...IN COORDINATION
WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS.
...

by **snow247** Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:18 am

docstox12 wrote:Latest update from NWS has Eastern LI in a watch while my earlier 3 to 6 was cut to 2 to 4.

Drying out.

Thinking my area has a much better chance Tues-Weds with that stoem coming up the coast rather than these hit or miss clippers bombing out.

Agree.

I think the ceiling for this is only 3 inches here maybe 4 at most.

by **algae888** Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:28 am

this from steve d this morning. don't always agree with him but he is a pretty good met and agree with his concern and with the rgem being a good sr model...
"To say I am a bit concerned about this forecast is an understatement. With Arctic air in place and a powerful disturbance about to dive into the New Jersey coastal waters, I have concern for a far more significant impact than what the NWS is showing. May I add the RGEM, which is an excellent short range model, is advertising a far more significant impact for the region.

I will try my best to advertise this concern and go from there. As I have been saying for some time, this storm makes me uneasy."

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:30 am

algae888 wrote:this from steve d this morning. don't always agree with him but he is a pretty good met and agree with his concern and with the rgem being a good sr model...
"To say I am a bit concerned about this forecast is an understatement. With Arctic air in place and a powerful disturbance about to dive into the New Jersey coastal waters, I have concern for a far more significant impact than what the NWS is showing. May I add the RGEM, which is an excellent short range model, is advertising a far more significant impact for the region.

I will try my best to advertise this concern and go from there. As I have been saying for some time, this storm makes me uneasy."

well lets pray that we can agree with him this time, something tells me we are in for a surprise today and tomorrows runs today still LR models for 12z then SR most important from there on out.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:33 am

algae888 wrote:this from steve d this morning. don't always agree with him but he is a pretty good met and agree with his concern and with the rgem being a good sr model...
"To say I am a bit concerned about this forecast is an understatement. With Arctic air in place and a powerful disturbance about to dive into the New Jersey coastal waters, I have concern for a far more significant impact than what the NWS is showing. May I add the RGEM, which is an excellent short range model, is advertising a far more significant impact for the region.

I will try my best to advertise this concern and go from there. As I have been saying for some time, this storm makes me uneasy."

where did u read this its not on his twitter.

by **algae888** Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:35 am

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:this from steve d this morning. don't always agree with him but he is a pretty good met and agree with his concern and with the rgem being a good sr model...
"To say I am a bit concerned about this forecast is an understatement. With Arctic air in place and a powerful disturbance about to dive into the New Jersey coastal waters, I have concern for a far more significant impact than what the NWS is showing. May I add the RGEM, which is an excellent short range model, is advertising a far more significant impact for the region.

I will try my best to advertise this concern and go from there. As I have been saying for some time, this storm makes me uneasy."

where did u read this its not on his twitter.

from his web site.

by **oldtimer** Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:56 am

Can someone help me?? I'm in line for 6+ on a SW wind at 40MPH Never could remember that!!

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:04 am

What time are model runs today

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:10 am

I'm just having a tough time understanding with such a potent storm that the amounts are so low

by **lglickman1** Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:21 am

Why does that met think we are in for a surprise, euro and gfs. Seem to agree nothing special is going to happen

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:34 am

Other models shown a more southern solution and GFS last night was further south by about 30 miles from previous runs

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:42 am

Yes sustained winds 25 to 40 gusts to 60 ouch! B careful old timer.

by **docstox12** Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:54 am

jmanley32 wrote:Yes sustained winds 25 to 40 gusts to 60 ouch! B careful old timer.

Love the use of that B there, Jman! Cool!

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:55 am

lglickman1 wrote:Why does that met think we are in for a surprise, euro and gfs. Seem to agree nothing special is going to happen

Where are you at can be the reason why you are saying this but 3-6" is nothing special with 20-30mph winds, wind chills -10 plus Saturday night.

With all due respect I differ.

by **oldtimer** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:06 am

jman NO I'm asking on Franks map I'm in 6-12 on a SW quitrent ??

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:13 am

Can someone please answer me lol when are the the models runs today they are important

by **algae888** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:18 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone please answer me lol when are the the models runs today they are important

nam 8:45
rgem 9:30
gfs 10:30
cmc 11:30
euro 1pm

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:20 am

algae888 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone please answer me lol when are the the models runs today they are important
nam 8:45
rgem 9:30
gfs 10:30
cmc 11:30
euro 1pm

Thanks Al these are pretty important correct

by **RJB8525** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:21 am

major sigh as i read through last nights posts..lol confused

by **algae888** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:24 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone please answer me lol when are the the models runs today they are important
nam 8:45
rgem 9:30
gfs 10:30
cmc 11:30
euro 1pm

Thanks Al these are pretty important correct

pay more attention to the nam and rgem. we are now inside 48hrs. srefs too. but I do not like srefs. they come out around 830

by **algae888** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:32 am

this from wpc disco early this morning...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT LEFT OF
THE NAM AND UKMET...WITH THE GEM BECOMING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN
BEING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER. THE
LATEST SPREAD WITHIN THE GEFS AND ECENS MEMBERS FAVORS THE IDEA OF
GOING WITH A NON-GEM CONSENSUS...OR ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:33 am

the b was totally unintentional lol. Mugs what did u say lol.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:35 am

RJB8525 wrote:major sigh as i read through last nights posts..lol

I wouldn't lose hope look at Frank's Map it's not bad and I think it may have chance to increase with 12z and 00z runs.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:39 am

amugs wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Why does that met think we are in for a surprise, euro and gfs. Seem to agree nothing special is going to happen

Where are you at can be the reason why you are saying this but 3-6" is nothing special with 20-30mph winds, wind chills -10 plus Saturday night.

With all due respect I differ.

I think I understand u mugs lol yes it is a big deal because of the wind and like for instance me they calling for sustained 25 to 40 gusts to 60 and -20 windchilks. And potential for a decent snowfall. If it was just the snow problems b more minimized but headlines have really been the wind and cold.

by Yschiff Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:41 am

SREFS?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:54 am

Yschiff wrote:SREFS?

Get .25" qpf into most of our area. With ratios, that's at least 4 inches of snow.

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