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Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by Sunflowers138 Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:57 pm

Jman,

I also read to open all blinds and curtains during the day so the sun will heat your house and your burner won't have to work as hard during the day.

At night, I close all blinds and cover them with curtains. I definitely feel more of a draft on the windows that I don't do this on. My daughter's room is draft-free (we use those room darkening shades as well as curtains and blinds).

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Nice writeup. I'm concerned about the power our old boiler is all we have for heat and is electric. Plus we have bad drafts. Anyone have advice eith best way to stop the drafts. Tape off bags etc. Looking forward to 00z. This def big change of events and hopefully continues.
also kohls or walmart have vinyl backed drapes..help keep out cold and heat.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:02 pm

@Biggin23 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Biggin23 wrote:Trying to learn....does it close off over Philly this run? Trying to see if I can read the model correctly.

It's closed off before it gets to our area, but it continues to strengthen (deepen), which allows it to continue to dig southward as the pattern progresses it eastward.

What hour does it close off (for my future reference)? Is it around hour 30? The website I am using doesn't really let me see into Canada that much.

Hour 39

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne4_f39

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:04 pm

@Biggin23 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Biggin23 wrote:Trying to learn....does it close off over Philly this run? Trying to see if I can read the model correctly.

It's closed off before it gets to our area, but it continues to strengthen (deepen), which allows it to continue to dig southward as the pattern progresses it eastward.

What hour does it close off (for my future reference)? Is it around hour 30? The website I am using doesn't really let me see into Canada that much.

I'd say between 30 and 36, yes. It's hard to say sometimes because depending on the contour intervals of the heights on the particular page you access the model data from, it could show variations in when it actually closes off. Here's the data from the site I use, for your reference:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/f30.gif
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/f36.gif

Make sure you look at the panel in the top left. It's hard to see in the second image I provided (hr 36), but there is a small closed 498 dam contour over extreme south-central Canada just north of the U.S. border of the Great Lakes.


Last edited by rb924119 on Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:06 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Biggin23 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Biggin23 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Biggin23 wrote:Trying to learn....does it close off over Philly this run? Trying to see if I can read the model correctly.

It's closed off before it gets to our area, but it continues to strengthen (deepen), which allows it to continue to dig southward as the pattern progresses it eastward.

What hour does it close off (for my future reference)? Is it around hour 30? The website I am using doesn't really let me see into Canada that much.

Hour 39

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne4_f39

Much clearer now, thanks!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:05 pm

RB is right, probably before hour 39

Check out the 200mb jet streak, rb. I think this argues for the H5 vort to dive further south compared to where GFS has it

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne4_f39

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Nice writeup. I'm concerned about the power our old boiler is all we have for heat and is electric. Plus we have bad drafts. Anyone have advice eith best way to stop the drafts. Tape off bags etc. Looking forward to 00z. This def big change of events and hopefully continues.

same here dude, they sell the stuff by a company called frost king (lol) its a window kit and super cheap you put it up and use a blow dryer to make it tight if you have a window needing it, doors are the biggest pain
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:10 pm

NAM is definitely going in the right direction. I love the trend. It's significantly further SW and more amplified with the trough. I also really like the more bulbus shape of the energy and associated ULL structure. Lastly, its turning negative much further W which will the SLP back towards the coast much faster.

BIG RUNS TONITE BUT I FEEL WE ARE A TICK AWAY AND BOOM - TWO THINGS CAN HAPPEN - MASSIVE INVERTED TROUGH BEING DEPICTED AT H5 OR A HUGE BOMBGENISIS ONCE IT HITS THE COAST.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:11 pm

FRANK AWESOME ANALYSIS KID !!!!

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:15 pm

The 0Z RGEM shows steady snow coming in by hr 48 (the last frame of its run)

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:16 pm

00z RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 I_nw_r1_EST_2015021300_048

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:16 pm

@Sunflowers138 wrote:Jman,

I also read to open all blinds and curtains during the day so the sun will heat your house and your burner won't have to work as hard during the day.

At night, I close all blinds and cover them with curtains. I definitely feel more of a draft on the windows that I don't do this on. My daughter's room is draft-free (we use those room darkening shades as well as curtains and blinds).

guys live in a large old apartment building not a house, so it would need to be something easily removable. I'll look into those ideas I guess tomorrow lol. We are within 48 hrs now. Exciting trends, it is windy as heck out there now, just came in and the winds are nothing to whats coming and it was so cold, i doubt very much anyone will be outside during the coldest parts of this storm.

Frank storm mode already : ) And why would you say no blizzard watches, with a good snow and all this wind wouldn't it warrent it? Not that it makes one ounce of difference its just logisitics doesnt mean more snow.
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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:18 pm

Sorry for being a downer but just not feeling this storm that may change tonight much more excited for the next one.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:20 pm

In the blog I say there would be blizzard watches. Where you reading?

00z RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:22 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:In the blog I say there would be blizzard watches. Where you reading?

00z RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 GZ_D5_PN_048_0000
Oh I fdef read it i thought you said just blizzard conditions, my bad again no big deal same difference. Just will prepare people more.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:22 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:In the blog I say there would be blizzard watches. Where you reading?

00z RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

jeeze is that the LP all the way down almost off the map?!
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:RB is right, probably before hour 39

Check out the 200mb jet streak, rb. I think this argues for the H5 vort to dive further south compared to where GFS has it

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne4_f39

You know, that's a really, really good point. Here's an image from WxForecaster.com (free site for those interested who have never heard of it) of the 00z N.A.M. 300 hPa jet structure for 00z Sunday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_048_300_wnd_ht.gif

Take notice of the 150+ knot jet streak that is actually on the backside of the digging 300 hPa (and also what can be seen as the H5 trough for all intents and purposes). Also take note of the extremely rapid gradient in winds from 150+ to less than 70 knots over the Delmarva and extreme southern NJ. Dynamically speaking, at this level, that is BY FAR where your greatest synoptic (large)-scale ascent is occurring. Now, in looking at only this, I would agree and say "Yeah, the surface low should end up there, no question." The tricky part in this, is that your best PVA (positive vorticity advection, or mid-level spin, responsible for creating synoptic-scale ascent at the mid-levels 'H5') is displaced slightly north of this area. Taking a blend of these two locations, you do in fact end up with a surface low placement about where the N.A.M. has it modeled. The BIG question is this: IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE H5 VORTICITY TREND STRONGER, MAINLY **UPSTREAM** OF THE TROUGH AXIS, THEN ABSOLUTELY WE CAN CERTAINLY EXPECT H5 TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD JOG. That is due to the height falls created by the vorticity advection into the base of the trough (hence digging it deeper). IF WE DO NOT SEE THIS, THEN WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THINGS REMAIN AS THEY ARE. These questions can only be resolved with time and better sampling. But IF the strong trend continues, then we can expect an incredibly fast increase in strength and moisture, especially for the coastal plain, as the dynamics would largely favor a big event.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:25 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:In the blog I say there would be blizzard watches. Where you reading?

00z RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

RIGHT WHERE WE WANT HER, off the DE Coast!!!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:26 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RB is right, probably before hour 39

Check out the 200mb jet streak, rb. I think this argues for the H5 vort to dive further south compared to where GFS has it

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne4_f39

You know, that's a really, really good point. Here's an image from WxForecaster.com (free site for those interested who have never heard of it) of the 00z N.A.M. 300 hPa jet structure for 00z Sunday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_048_300_wnd_ht.gif

Take notice of the 150+ knot jet streak that is actually on the backside of the digging 300 hPa (and also what can be seen as the H5 trough for all intents and purposes). Also take note of the extremely rapid gradient in winds from 150+ to less than 70 knots over the Delmarva and extreme southern NJ. Dynamically speaking, at this level, that is BY FAR where your greatest synoptic (large)-scale ascent is occurring. Now, in looking at only this, I would agree and say "Yeah, the surface low should end up there, no question." The tricky part in this, is that your best PVA (positive vorticity advection, or mid-level spin, responsible for creating synoptic-scale ascent at the mid-levels 'H5') is displaced slightly north of this area. Taking a blend of these two locations, you do in fact end up with a surface low placement about where the N.A.M. has it modeled. The BIG question is this: IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE H5 VORTICITY TREND STRONGER, MAINLY **UPSTREAM** OF THE TROUGH AXIS, THEN ABSOLUTELY WE CAN CERTAINLY EXPECT H5 TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD JOG. That is due to the height falls created by the vorticity advection into the base of the trough (hence digging it deeper). IF WE DO NOT SEE THIS, THEN WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THINGS REMAIN AS THEY ARE. These questions can only be resolved with time and better sampling. But IF the strong trend continues, then we can expect an incredibly fast increase in strength and moisture, especially for the coastal plain, as the dynamics would largely favor a big event.

want this! NWS has their first call map up 3-4 west and 4-6 ct LI, i think thats without ratios.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:28 pm

Something else worth noting, is that with such a strong lagging jet streak aloft, this to me, absolutely screams for enhanced back-side/southwestern edge precipitation, as the ageostrophic (vertical) circulation associated with that left jet-exit region is going to be really strong.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:30 pm

Wow, Piers Corbyn (famous LR Met) just retweeted by blog. Nice!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:31 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RB is right, probably before hour 39

Check out the 200mb jet streak, rb. I think this argues for the H5 vort to dive further south compared to where GFS has it

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne4_f39

You know, that's a really, really good point. Here's an image from WxForecaster.com (free site for those interested who have never heard of it) of the 00z N.A.M. 300 hPa jet structure for 00z Sunday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_048_300_wnd_ht.gif

Take notice of the 150+ knot jet streak that is actually on the backside of the digging 300 hPa (and also what can be seen as the H5 trough for all intents and purposes). Also take note of the extremely rapid gradient in winds from 150+ to less than 70 knots over the Delmarva and extreme southern NJ. Dynamically speaking, at this level, that is BY FAR where your greatest synoptic (large)-scale ascent is occurring. Now, in looking at only this, I would agree and say "Yeah, the surface low should end up there, no question." The tricky part in this, is that your best PVA (positive vorticity advection, or mid-level spin, responsible for creating synoptic-scale ascent at the mid-levels 'H5') is displaced slightly north of this area. Taking a blend of these two locations, you do in fact end up with a surface low placement about where the N.A.M. has it modeled. The BIG question is this: IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE H5 VORTICITY TREND STRONGER, MAINLY **UPSTREAM** OF THE TROUGH AXIS, THEN ABSOLUTELY WE CAN CERTAINLY EXPECT H5 TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD JOG. That is due to the height falls created by the vorticity advection into the base of the trough (hence digging it deeper). IF WE DO NOT SEE THIS, THEN WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THINGS REMAIN AS THEY ARE. These questions can only be resolved with time and better sampling. But IF the strong trend continues, then we can expect an incredibly fast increase in strength and moisture, especially for the coastal plain, as the dynamics would largely favor a big event.

Good post

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:31 pm

@ Frank-

Just catching up after my short story (lol) and both images that you posted from the RGEM might be hinting at both of those scenarios that I just mentioned; deeper H5+H3 jet dynamics=surface low further south + enhanced back-side precipitation

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:33 pm

Well its GFS time ladies and gents. Hoping for a 50 mile jog south.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, Piers Corbyn (famous LR Met) just retweeted by blog. Nice!

You must be doing something right, then :p

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