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Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:48 am

@jmanley32 wrote:you guys wanna see the nam 10:1 snow map?

Need you even ask? lmao

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:54 am

@jmanley32 wrote:you guys wanna see the nam 10:1 snow map?

Any day now Jman, lot's of work to do today. I shouldn't even be on here.
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Post by HEATMISER Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:56 am

Show us the goods!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:57 am

Took a look at some soundings this morning to get a better idea of snow ratios. Due to the high winds bringing in some bone cold arctic dry air, we're probably looking at 15:1 ratios instead of 20:1. So whatever amounts you see on snow maps multiply by 1.5

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:03 am

personally its just a hair off for me to see a good snow, but very close, here.

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 12 Nam_3h10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:04 am

Dang only 15:1 drat, that really limits, thank goodness its the crappy nam
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:05 am

NAM pretty much matches my snow map once you consider ratios

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:06 am

Interesting.

Most of Connecticut gets less than us and Red Sox Suck gets about the same. If that verified and it is the NAM boy would TWC be disappointed.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:06 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Dang only 15:1 drat, that really limits, thank goodness its the crappy nam

No...all the models show 15:1

Winds are too high, air mass is too cold, not enough saturation (relative humidity)

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:07 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Interesting.

Most of Connecticut gets less than us and Red Sox Suck gets about the same. If that verified and it is the NAM boy would TWC be disappointed.

Somebody between eastern NY and CT in MA is going to get screwed big time. That's been apparent on all the models. Inverted trough's are not fun to forecast...

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:07 am

hires nam, 3-6 city still, east a bit more, not seeing 10-15 plus well east but again its the nam

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 12 Hires_13

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Post by Yschiff Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:07 am

Bernie Rayno thinks 2-3 inches for NYC

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:09 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Dang only 15:1 drat, that really limits, thank goodness its the crappy nam

No...all the models show 15:1

Winds are too high, air mass is too cold, not enough saturation (relative humidity)

no I meant the verbatim totals I felt were low, but looking at hires, it is about same as yours, except eastern ct.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:09 am

@Yschiff wrote:Bernie Rayno thinks 2-3 inches for NYC

fwappp!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:10 am

Frank, of course that is yours and every other forecasters headache with this one and has been from the beginning. If your not under that trough your going to be disappointed, and that trough sets up in a different area every run since it first showed up.
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:14 am

You people cannot look at where a model puts a band up and take it Verbatim!! There's no way to forecast that. My concern for the event lies in the fact that even Boston's totals have been lowered by the NWS and ours have not increased, even with the ssw shift in guidance.

Somethings' up!! sroc4 you seem to be in a good spot. What's your take?

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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:19 am

cp its going to go from east to north but where it ends up who knows But i think its a good 3-6 with some 8 inches in the lucky spot in that trough around us!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:22 am

@jimv45 wrote:cp its going to go from east to north but where it ends up who knows But i think its a good 3-6 with some 8 inches in the lucky spot in that trough around us!!

I agree pretty much. 3-5 in general in the HV and the lucky ones that get under the trough if it sets up at all in the HV they could see 6-10, but that will be a small select area.
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:23 am

yes nowcast

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Post by Yschiff Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:26 am

Rgem?

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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:27 am

and cp good to see you back and didn't take that break not the right blog but i think our next storm is still very much alive!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:27 am

@Yschiff wrote:Rgem?

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 12 I_nw_r1_EST_2015021312_040

Probably 3-6" for most.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:31 am

@jimv45 wrote:and cp good to see you back and didn't take that break not the right blog but i think our next storm is still very much alive!

Jim my 24 hour self imposed bans with a storm on the horizon usually never last more than an hour.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:37 am

Rgem looks good for my area but I really don't know what to think nam was crap. I would think with a potent storm diving down hitting the coast it would bomb out and throw a lot of moisture towards coastal areas
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:45 am

I think frank mentioned lowered ratios due to wind, could that alos inhibit moisture? Assuming that's why ratios lowered too.
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