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Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by jjlane25 Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:12 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jjlane25 wrote:Is there a start time for this?

Not sure where you live, but looks to be Saturday afternoon with light snow and ramping up overnight into Sunday

Thanks...Union County, NJ. Having some family over for a get together at 4pm. They're coming from Bergen County and would probably be heading back there around 8:30/9pm.

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:20 pm

sroc4!!  IMHO the NWS has to move the WSW's and warnings all the way to the 5 boroughs and adjacent NJ and LHV no??

Also what is the average total QPF for LI so I can figure out totals of my own with a 15:1 ratio. Thanks buddy!


Last edited by syosnow94 on Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:21 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:20 pm

abc saying 1-3 for nj/nyc.... starting tom afternoon
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:23 pm

@jjlane25 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jjlane25 wrote:Is there a start time for this?

Not sure where you live, but looks to be Saturday afternoon with light snow and ramping up overnight into Sunday

Thanks...Union County, NJ. Having some family over for a get together at 4pm. They're coming from Bergen County and would probably be heading back there around 8:30/9pm.

the met on channel 7(lee goldberg not on today) just said it will start tom around noon in western nj and will by wide spread throughout the afternoon..he said his main concern is the rapid dropping of temperatures throughout the afternoon that worries him...be safe tom....
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:25 pm

syosnow94 wrote:sroc4!!  IMHO the NWS has to move the WSW's and warnings all the way to the 5 boroughs and adjacent NJ and LHV no??

Also what is the average total QPF for LI so I can figure out totals of my own with a 15:1 ratio.  Thanks buddy!

Ive been at work so I havent been able to look at that stuff in great detail.  I am going to try and put out a map tonight but I am on my own with my kids as I sent my wife to Sothern California as a Christmas present to see a concert with her best friend.  She grew up there.  I prob wont have time till after they are in bed after 8-9ish

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:29 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:abc saying 1-3 for nj/nyc.... starting tom afternoon


Once again those amounts seem low to me if this is as strong as being showed and digging more south those numbers will go up
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:34 pm

Met Joe Cioffi for the area:
Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 17 F8aec132785c03eb134a2ff0dcb36854?AccessKeyId=562185BEE1316845283D&disposition=0&alloworigin=1

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:45 pm

Here is the link for Joe Cioffis forecasts for all local areas including CT, SNJ NNJ etc...He does a great job
http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joesforecast.html

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:52 pm

yes sroc he has me in the 3-6 I will take it
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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:59 pm

Me and Joe Cioffi have similar thoughts, I am working on my first call map now.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:19 pm

I'm hearing GFS went south but cannot verify from my phone. Anyone??
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:21 pm

Was in meeting. See there is a wwa. 3 to 7 and blizzard conditions. Think personally this should become a wsw with any tick west toward the upper end of that 7 maybe more this all trend better. It's funny in the wwa they mention winds 25 to 35 gusts to 50 but in the hww they saying 30 to 40 gusts to 60. Lol that makes no sense being for same area. I'm starting to get a bit more confident in a 6 inch snow and wsw for nyc and southern wc. Mobile will check in when home.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:22 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm hearing GFS went south but cannot verify from my phone. Anyone??
Hang on soul
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:24 pm

Looks like.it fid but need look closer on computer. I have a feeling this storm is going to be bad probably.not huge snows but with the wind and cold big prblems.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:25 pm

Oh shit yeah qpf way up on gfs. Mostly ct but nearing ny with .6 plus! 00z runs come in and we all have wsw at least on coastal plain maybe even b word
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:27 pm

East li gets .8 to 1.0 ! It's coming west and juicier.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:29 pm

Wow winds upped too accuwx now has sat into sun gusts to 69mph jesus!
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Post by carvin1079 Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:43 pm

Mr g from channel11 said the only thing that might change is the totals good sign safe call

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:45 pm

GFS OP finally meets up with the H5 for more south direction so yes it shifted south - thank friggin god and a BIG shift with the precip!! Another 25 miles and we are in the WSW.. Come on biatch anoterh tick we st - ahh one more run on globals - ahh bs onto the gfs onto the RGEM, SREFS and HRRR, GEM-LAM.

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 17 Post-11-0-60713800-1423864725 .10 Light green .25 Dark green .50 Dark blue .75 Light blue

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:52 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh shit yeah qpf way up on gfs. Mostly ct but nearing ny with .6 plus! 00z runs come in and we all have wsw at least on coastal plain maybe even b word

Jman - Eastern LI can go b word for us here we need two more ticks 50-75 miles easily before we talk that - is it possible slightly but blizzard like conditions absolutely.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:54 pm

Jeff Smith keeping with 1-3 NNJ to NYC and 3-6 NYC east to suffik and 6+ to the end of LI - playing it safe

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:57 pm

GEFS GEFS GEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 17 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 17 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

IF verifies f that 1-3 baby we go 6"+ easily

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dtone Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Was in meeting. See there is a wwa. 3 to 7 and blizzard conditions. Think personally this should become a wsw with any tick west toward the upper end of that 7 maybe more this all trend better. It's funny in the wwa they mention winds 25 to 35 gusts to 50 but in the hww they saying 30 to 40 gusts to 60. Lol that makes no sense being for same area. I'm starting to get a bit more confident in a 6 inch snow and wsw for nyc and southern wc. Mobile will check in when home.

Check the probability map as well as the probability chart selected by county, 6" not likely but still in play it seems.

http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter?selected=Bronx,%20NY#table

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:01 pm

.50 now to NYC on GEFS - here we go peeps FN HERE WE GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:23 pm

More GEFS these are beautiful

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 17 F42

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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