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Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast

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Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast Empty Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:28 pm

I want to begin by saying this winter has been a very good learning experience for me. I have forecasted system with very unusual upper level set-ups, and this one may be the toughest of them all. It's not unusual to see inverted or norlun trough's, but forecasting them is truly a pain. *Please refer to the other thread for updates on the WIND & COLD.* I want to stress that those are the bigger stories rather than the snow.

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast F54

The SREFS came north at H5 a bit, but the spread is still all over the place. At this juncture, it's clear models do not know which pieces of upper energy they want to draw their attention to.

FINAL CALL SNOW MAP

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast 10959485_888108771240883_3223251096386792488_n

If need be, I will update early in the morning but I do not foresee myself doing that. I looked at all the evidence and feel strongly about this map. Of course, it does have HIGH BUST POTENTIAL due to the uncertainty of the H5 vort still and how far south it gets. Hopefully SREFS are wrong in that depiction.

I was going to do a wind map but decided against it. Wind gusts are widespread from PA to NJ 40-50 mph gusts with areas closer to the coast approaching 60 mph.

We'll see how this goes...

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:30 pm

Steve DiMartino just tweeted:

"I would not be surprised if CNJ, NYC, and Long Island get hit hard then back to SNE."

...and he's usually very conservatively realistic.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:31 pm

nice map frank, why the cut in hanf southern westchester that literally puts al in 6-10 and me in 3-6 (we live quite close), was just curious how the heck you narrowed that down to such a small spot, but i am in the yellow and a additonaly 3-6 would b killer, thanks for all your hard work.
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:33 pm

Boy I am right on or near the 6 to 10 close

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:34 pm

Ah, so close to the 6-10 and right on the yellow line lol.

We have similar thoughts though.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:35 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:nice map frank, why the cut in hanf southern westchester that literally puts al in 6-10 and me in 3-6 (we live quite close), was just curious how the heck you narrowed that down to such a small spot, but i am in the yellow and a additonaly 3-6 would b killer, thanks for all your hard work.

Inverted trough is going to show a squall line of snow in a west to east orientation right over LI.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:37 pm

Nice write up and map pretty much stayed the same in amounts
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:37 pm

Great map Frank and very tough storm again this winter!
I think we see more to the 6" as we are more east and you get Essex as you move west BUT if the deform bands sets up more west jackpot then.
Great now casting tomorrow!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:38 pm

Nice Frank!! My only nit-picky thing is I don't know if the I.T. will enhance snow totals by THAT much. I was thinking maybe an additional 1 to as much as 3" locally. That said, the H7 VVs on the NAM were crazy impressive. I might have a map tomorrow, but I don't know because I have a lot of work to do lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:38 pm

frank u said winds PA to NJ, I assume when u say coast you mean NJ coast on east to the cape right?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:40 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:frank u said winds PA to NJ, I assume when u say coast you mean NJ coast on east to the cape right?

Yes

These snow squalls are going to be insane tomorrow

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast PVATest0021

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:41 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Nice Frank!! My only nit-picky thing is I don't know if the I.T. will enhance snow totals by THAT much. I was thinking maybe an additional 1 to as much as 3" locally. That said, the H7 VVs on the NAM were crazy impressive. I might have a map tomorrow, but I don't know because I have a lot of work to do lol

If you're in the meat of a norlun band, you're definitely getting at least 3" out of it IMO. They could also be convective at times.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:41 pm

Holy crap

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast PVATest0027

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Post by Mathgod55 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:43 pm

At 10, Nick Gregory mentioned the norlun. Very surprised. Most TV mets don't get that specific. However, he did suggest that it appears likely to add accumulations over that NYC-nassua-western suffolk zone.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast PVATest0027

I know thats a hights map but can u explain in a nutshell why the holy crap?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:45 pm

@Mathgod55 wrote:At 10, Nick Gregory mentioned the norlun. Very surprised. Most TV mets don't get that specific. However, he did suggest that it appears likely to add accumulations over that NYC-nassua-western suffolk zone.

You're dog is adorable.

Anyway, 00z GFS looks like poop for our area but hits NE and LI well with the CCB. Does not even show an inverted trough.

WRONG in my opinion.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Nice Frank!! My only nit-picky thing is I don't know if the I.T. will enhance snow totals by THAT much. I was thinking maybe an additional 1 to as much as 3" locally. That said, the H7 VVs on the NAM were crazy impressive. I might have a map tomorrow, but I don't know because I have a lot of work to do lol

If you're in the meat of a norlun band, you're definitely getting at least 3" out of it IMO. They could also be convective at times.

That's true. We'll see. I guess it all boils down to comfort level; you're willing to go bullish with it; I would be more conservative right now. Either way, I totally agree with your thought process, with regards to the layout and geographical breakdowns.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:46 pm

Is it possible winds top 60mph in and around nyc, or is 60 pretty much the cap until you get out to cape etc?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:47 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Mathgod55 wrote:At 10, Nick Gregory mentioned the norlun. Very surprised. Most TV mets don't get that specific. However, he did suggest that it appears likely to add accumulations over that NYC-nassua-western suffolk zone.

You're dog is adorable.

Anyway, 00z GFS looks like poop for our area but hits NE and LI well with the CCB. Does not even show an inverted trough.

WRONG in my opinion.

I just saw that too lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:48 pm

meh not so worried about those models now, thats a bit concerning but i think ur right frank... wrong.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast PVATest0027

I know thats a hights map but can u explain in a nutshell why the holy crap?  

The color-fill represents vorticity advection (positive in the warm colors and negative in the cold colors). What this represents is synoptic (large) scale ascent/descent. Ascent occurs where you have positive (vorticity) advection (in the reds/pinks) and descent occurs where you have the blues. The stronger the positive (negative) advection the stronger the ascent (descent).

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:52 pm

Hey Frank, can you get maps of PV (potential vorticity) from WxBell? Just curious.

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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:00 pm

Sticking to what I said yesterday 2 to 4 city south 4 to 6 north and east some 8 in spots

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:02 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Hey Frank, can you get maps of PV (potential vorticity) from WxBell? Just curious.

Let me look, I think so

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:03 pm

Scratch that lol not PV I mis-spoke. Nvm, you won't be able to get what I'm looking for lol Thanks, though

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