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Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast

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SNOW MAN
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:56 am

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:56 am

SLIP SOUTH DAMN YOU!!!!!! ahahaha

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:57 am

Maybe for the first time this winter we will actually get a storm that trends much better for us as we get closer and then it even overperforms.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:57 am

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:58 am

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 5 Post-40-0-99438100-1423893663

YES!!!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:59 am

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:00 am

What are the chances that the NYC area (LHV/NNJ/LI/SWCT) gets a double digit snowfall from this when all is said and done?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:00 am

@snow247 wrote:What are the chances that the NYC area (LHV/NNJ/LI/SWCT) gets a double digit snowfall from this when all is said and done?

40%?

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:00 am

Would be better if it did that over like Virginia lmfao

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:02 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:We actually have amazing consensus.

OMG INVERTED TROUGHHH
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:03 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@snow247 wrote:What are the chances that the NYC area (LHV/NNJ/LI/SWCT) gets a double digit snowfall from this when all is said and done?

40%?

Good enough lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:03 am

Goodnight

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:03 am

Snow map, Frank?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:06 am

@rb924119 wrote:Snow map, Frank?

1 sec

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:07 am

U DA MANNNN!!! Thank you buddy

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:07 am

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 5 Ecmwf_tsnow_nyc_10

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:20 am

@snow247 wrote:I'll try to stay awake as long as I can.

Btw, here is my final call. Thoughts?

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 5 Final_10

About 5 miles north of the 4" line in CNJ, would agree ATM, straddling line once again...
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:34 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Ooommmggg
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.refc_animate_1h.html#picture

Woke up to find this above which looks incredible.

Then took a look at Euro which is underwhelming.

As usual I have no clue what to think of this storm. I'll go with my thoughts from days ago 3-5 in most of HV and if I somehow get more than 4 I'll be quite content.

Temperature is -2.0 right now, 2 degrees from my low for the winter. Hopefully that will be shattered Monday morning and hopefully despite the high winds I'll have power Monday morning. Damn Jman and his winds. JK Jman Wink

I've actually been quite distracted by Wednesdays possibilities.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:07 am

6* here at 2AM, the ground is so cold that any flake that falls will stick.

Good night all, very fun times incoming!
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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Feb 14, 2015 4:15 am

NWS has my area in a WWA from 10:00am Sat. until 7:00am Sun. for 4-6in. of snow.
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:12 am

Event: Blizzard Warning
Alert:
...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND SUFFOLK COUNTY
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

...SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S TONIGHT.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW
AND HIGH WINDS. WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.
Instructions: A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:13 am

Congrats, Suffolk Co. -- 2nd Blizzard Warning of the season!

Nyc under WWA and Wind Advisory. MEANWHILE, Mt Holly has placed all of NJ (besides Upton's territory) under High Wind Warnings. I think Upton's playing it soooo safe on this storm with tails between legs from all the busts this year.
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:38 am

HRRR @ 10:00 pm Tonight I'll take it.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipZ.cgi?keys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runtime=2015021408&plot_type=cref_sfc&fcst=14&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:06 am

Local Mets still seem to be down playing amounts ABC 1-3 inches NYC and more points east. Why when everything seems to saying more
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:06 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Ooommmggg
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.refc_animate_1h.html#picture

Woke up to find this above which looks incredible.

Then took a look at Euro which is underwhelming.

As usual I have no clue what to think of this storm. I'll go with my thoughts from days ago 3-5 in most of HV and if I somehow get more than 4 I'll be quite content.

Temperature is -2.0 right now, 2 degrees from my low for the winter. Hopefully that will be shattered Monday morning and hopefully despite the high winds I'll have power Monday morning. Damn Jman and his winds. JK Jman Wink

I've actually been quite distracted by Wednesdays possibilities.

3 to 5 is a good bet up here CP and if we get a surprise from the Norlun, it's icing on the cake!

Gonna be wild Sunday with those high winds and blowing snow!
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